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Thread: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

  1. #121
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    If the Reds can recoup Pena's offensive value somewhere else to negate the presence of Scott Hatteberg being his de facto offensive replacement, Arroyo would need to be worth at least 50 Runs more than the rotation option he's replacing to be worth 5 additional Wins.

    Over 200 Innigns, 50 Runs is the about the difference between a 5.00 ERA and a 2.80 ERA. Yikes.
    5 wins is a pipe dream, sure. It assumes the Reds get lucky and beat Pythagoras, and that Arroyo pitches to the absolute pinnacle of his ability (say 210 IPs with an ERA of 3.50). I think a performace like that and the ripple effect through the bullpen could potentially result in a 5 win increase. Of course, there's only about a 1% chance of that happening...

    In the long run, 5 wins is the difference between finishing at 77-85 vs. 72-90, but in the course of a season, 5 wins is the difference (potentially) between being 3 games back from the Wild Card in July (and still, theoretically, in contention) and being 8 games back from the Wild Card in July and firmly in the losers bracket.
    That's 5 wins max, spread out over the course of the season. We're talking 1 win a month. And that's a big maybe.

    It's not going to matter.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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  3. #122
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Hatteberg replaces Casey. Dunn is a no change. Kearns production is the comparison for the impact of Pena's loss. Plus, it is not unreasonable to project more production out of the 3b position than a year ago.

  4. #123
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Joe Fan also spends his money to watch some guys hit prodigious home runs. They take their kids to the game because they think, 'Wow, if this guy ever learns to hit a curve ball he could hit 70 HR's. I want my boy to see that!'

    Bottom line: you can rationalize all you want about esoteric things but this trade was still dumb unless you think it put the Reds over the top to wint the division and get to the WS. I respect most of the people that posted here and I know that no was has said they expected that to happen.

    Rem

  5. #124
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    5 wins is a pipe dream, sure. It assumes the Reds get lucky and beat Pythagoras, and that Arroyo pitches to the absolute pinnacle of his ability (say 210 IPs with an ERA of 3.50). I think a performace like that and the ripple effect through the bullpen could potentially result in a 5 win increase. Of course, there's only about a 1% chance of that happening...



    That's 5 wins max, spread out over the course of the season. We're talking 1 win a month. And that's a big maybe.

    It's not going to matter.
    It would seem if that is all there was to putting together predictions, so many people wouldn't be so wrong when making preseason predictions.

  6. #125
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Hatteberg replaces Casey. Dunn is a no change. Kearns production is the comparison for Pena.
    Or, Dunn is a big boost over Casey, Kearns get full-time status and Pena gets full-time status of his own. I like that a lot better than Hatteberg full-time.

    Rem

  7. #126
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog
    Or, Dunn is a big boost over Casey, Kearns get full-time status and Pena gets full-time status of his own. I like that a lot better than Hatteberg full-time.

    Rem
    And your still sending Harang, Claussen, Milton, Williams, and one of Gosling/Germano out there every fifth day. I don't like that better and can live with HattebergAurilia until a better option emerges.

  8. #127
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog
    Bottom line: you can rationalize all you want about esoteric things but this trade was still dumb unless you think it put the Reds over the top to wint the division and get to the WS.
    There isn't a single poster here who thinks this trade "put the reds over the top", and a number of people also don't think the trade was dumb. Many, myself included, think it made sense.

    There's a middle ground between the two extreme positions you mentioned, which has surely been evident in the 40-some pages of posts that have been made about this trade.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  9. #128
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Joe Fan also spends his money to watch some guys hit prodigious home runs. They take their kids to the game because they think, 'Wow, if this guy ever learns to hit a curve ball he could hit 70 HR's. I want my boy to see that!'
    Until they give up 5 runs a game for 3 straight years and have a.447 Winning percentage... then Joe fan stops coming to the games and Corporate Joe stops buying Luxury Boxes.
    Code:
    2001 - Attendance: 1,879,757 (13th out of 16)
    2004 - Attendance: 1,855,787 (12th out of 16)
    2003 - Attendance: 2,355,259 (8th out of 16)
    2004 - Attendance: 2,287,250 (12th out of 16)
    2005 - Attendance: 1,943,067 (13th out of 16)
    After tiring of the team's losing ways, Castellini did not renew his luxury box at Great American Ball Park after 2003.

    "As a Cincinnatian, I found it very aggravating not to see that same passion," he said. "This is a Reds town."
    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...366/1007/col03

  10. #129
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    well I was wrong about WMP not playing CF for the sox. he's there today.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  11. #130
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    And your still sending Harang, Claussen, Milton, Williams, and one of Gosling/Germano out there every fifth day. I don't like that better and can live with HattebergAurilia until a better option emerges.
    You just watched that better option leave for Boston.

    Basically, we are debateing the better way to build a 5th place team 'cause that is the best expectation following this trade. I think that the Reds had a chance to get there as perviously constructed. There's no denying that the supporters of this trade think it's gonna' take a 'Star' like Bronson Arroyo to get over that hump.

    I'm afraid it's going to be a long and miserable summer down on the river. (sigh)

    Rem

  12. #131
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    There's no denying that the supporters of this trade think it's gonna' take a 'Star' like Bronson Arroyo to get over that hump.
    Well I supported the trade, but I certainly never called Arroyo a *Star* in fact he's a middle of the rotation type, in fact if he and Harang become the #3 and #4 guys within 2 years, I'll be happy with the trade.

    One thing's for sure, I never would call WMP a *Star* either.

    I'm afraid it's going to be a long and miserable summer down on the river. (sigh)
    WMP sure would not have changed that prediction.

  13. #132
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    After tiring of the team's losing ways, Castellini did not renew his luxury box at Great American Ball Park after 2003.

    "As a Cincinnatian, I found it very aggravating not to see that same passion," he said. "This is a Reds town."

    Thank goodness for Bronson Arroyo then! I'm sure I can hear the stampede to the box office all the way out here in California.

    Rem

  14. #133
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    I think that's another earthquake

    This teade didn't need to result in Hatteberg becoming a starter, Freel could be out in left with Richy at 2nd and the Reds O would be a lot better off.

    The Reds made this trade worse by handing a job over to Hattberg and Womack.
    Go Gators!

  15. #134
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Well I supported the trade, but I certainly never called Arroyo a *Star* in fact he's a middle of the rotation type...


    WMP sure would not have changed that prediction.
    So you think BA is a 'middle of the rotation type', eh? Maybe on the Reds but...

    And no, WMP wouldn't have changed that prediction. But if BA is the best I can get I pass and hope that I can either turn him for better in mid-season or that one of the other guys on the team brings back more.

    Rem

  16. #135
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    So you think BA is a 'middle of the rotation type', eh? Maybe on the Reds but...
    Yeah, those 61 starts in Boston the last 2 years must have been a dream I had.

    What do you want for nothing?

    Rubber biscuit?


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