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Thread: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

  1. #106
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    What's the immediacy?

    The Reds have been in that position for 5 years. They were a lousy team for those 5 years, and they'll be a lousy team for the next couple of years. Arroyo doesn't really change the situation that much.
    By himself, of course not. I cannot think of one pitching acquisition, from Mark Prior to Rick Harden to any other young ace you can name that would accomplish that. But then I don't recall any of the supporters of the move have indicated those expectations. All understand that this has to be one of a series of moves to have a significant impact. With the pitching staff in the shape that it is, incremental improvement will have to take place arm by arm. Arroyo is an incremental improvement in the rotation that was exchanged for a set of skills with megarisk of ever paying off that WMP possesses. I'm still pleased as punch we got as much as we did out of WMP. I figured he'd rot on the tree like an unpicked July peach.

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  3. #107
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Yes. Clement will K batters. Arroyo won't.

    Arroyo's ripple effect will be similar to Dave Williams ripple effect.

    And that just makes me sad.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #108
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    b/c being that thin has a ripple effect throughout the whole pitching staff and organization causing overuse and rushing of pitchers which make it hard to improve the staff, even incrementally, over time.
    Why sell Pena short now to start the rebuilding process a mere couple of months early? Why not wait until the All-Star break and try to get some real building blocks for a foundation instead of just Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Three years of declining attendance and the need to reupp the corporate box holders.
    Signing Arroyo didn't improve the marketing situation enough to make a difference in those departments. If he pitches to the pinnacle of his ability, he's worth 5 more wins, tops.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  5. #109
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    If he pitches to the pinnacle of his ability, he's worth 5 more wins, tops.
    Yep, and joe fan wants 5 more wins from the Reds this season too.

  6. #110
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Signing Arroyo didn't improve the marketing situation enough to make a difference in those departments. If he pitches to the pinnacle of his ability, he's worth 5 more wins, tops.
    And that's assuming we get no drop off in offensive production by in essence replacing WMP with Hatteberg.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #111
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I do.

    And BTW, what's going to happen with the money the Reds saved by acquiring Arroyo?

    Krivsky's Twins don't exactly have a track record of signing marquee free agent talent.
    There you go again, MOing a guy with a track record shorter than my criminal record . Prejudgment 101.

  8. #112
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    Why sell Pena short now to start the rebuilding process a mere couple of months early? Why not wait until the All-Star break and try to get some real building blocks for a foundation instead of just Arroyo?

    .
    B/C I honestly don't think teams will be looking for players like Wily Mo to put them over top at all star break. He's just too one dimensional.

    I think kearns otoh is a good candidate for that argument as he does do many thinsg well.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  9. #113
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    And that's assuming we get no drop off in offensive production by in essence replacing WMP with Hatteberg.
    not that I want hatteberg to start, but he really is pretty similar offensively to casey.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  10. #114
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    B/C I honestly don't think teams will be looking for players like Wily Mo to put them over top at all star break. He's just too one dimensional.

    I think kearns otoh is a good candidate for that argument as he does do many thinsg well.
    In theory he does. But we haven't seen it since he got sat on.

    Either way, a ST trade was too soon for too little. And unless Arroyo brings those K/9 numbers north of 6 this year, we aren't going to see his pinnacle of potential production, we'll see what he was last year, in a park that inflates HR totals.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #115
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    In theory he does. But we haven't seen it since he got sat on.

    Either way, a ST trade was too soon for too little. And unless Arroyo brings those K/9 numbers north of 6 this year, we aren't going to see his pinnacle of potential production, we'll see what he was last year, in a park that inflates HR totals.
    regardless of park factors, I don't think GAPB will be any tougher on Arroyo than Fenway was.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  12. #116
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Yep, and joe fan wants 5 more wins from the Reds this season too.
    I doubt those 5 wins will make Joe Fan decide to splurge on a significant number of additional tickets.

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    There you go again, MOing a guy with a track record shorter than my criminal record . Prejudgment 101.
    I'm judging him based on the organization he came out of -- the organization he had a hand in running. Based on the (admittedly limited) moves he's made thusfar, he appears to be following that same MO. I'd say it's a fair judgement at this point. Let him prove me wrong.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  13. #117
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    Signing Arroyo didn't improve the marketing situation enough to make a difference in those departments. If he pitches to the pinnacle of his ability, he's worth 5 more wins, tops.
    If the Reds can recoup Pena's offensive value somewhere else to negate the presence of Scott Hatteberg being his de facto offensive replacement, Arroyo would need to be worth at least 50 Runs more than the rotation option he's replacing to be worth 5 additional Wins.

    Over 200 Innigns, 50 Runs is the about the difference between a 5.00 ERA and a 2.80 ERA. Yikes.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  14. #118
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    regardless of park factors, I don't think GAPB will be any tougher on Arroyo than Fenway was.
    I hope you are right, but my feeling is come summertime, the right field stands could be hazardous when he pitches. For him to be effective in Cincinnati, he has got to K more hitters. If he doesn't and he pitches like he did last year, it won't be pretty.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #119
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I doubt those 5 wins will make Joe Fan decide to splurge on a significant number of additional tickets.
    In the long run, 5 wins is the difference between finishing at 77-85 vs. 72-90, but in the course of a season, 5 wins is the difference (potentially) between being 3 games back from the Wild Card in July (and still, theoretically, in contention) and being 8 games back from the Wild Card in July and firmly in the losers bracket.

    Joe Fan will show up for a ballclub he percieves to be in "striking distance" of postseason play. Joe Fan spends his money elsewhere when the team is playing the game for pride only. There's a lot of money to be made from keeping a club just barely in contention before fading hard as opposed to a club that falls flat on it's face out of the gate and leaves no doubt where the train ride is going.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  16. #120
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Arroyo will not be an increase of 5 wins... ripple effect or no, because WMP's production is being replaced with Hatteberg. That has to count too.

    It just kills me. We finally get the chance to see both Kearns and WMP play every day. finally it was going to be settled, and IMO those two would still be competing.

    Instead we get to see the mighty Hat at bat. yippee.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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