Turn Off Ads?
Page 6 of 15 FirstFirst ... 2345678910 ... LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 218

Thread: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

  1. #76
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    North Carolina
    Posts
    25,267

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    BP overvaluing WMP as well.
    I agree.

    It seems almost everone is doing that.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #77
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    And Guillen was a known headcase and his breakout was screaming 1 year wonder. Anyone could have had him at the beginning of the year for nothing.

    this is pong. one side is overvaluing Pena, the other Arroyo.

    I guess we'll see in October.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #78
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    5,872

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    this is pong. one side is overvaluing Pena, the other Arroyo.
    Which would make the trade even, correct?
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  5. #79
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44
    I agree.

    It seems almost everone is doing that.
    Really? I think almost everyone is overvaluing Arroyo.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #80
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    Which would make the trade even, correct?
    I think that would be tic tac toe.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #81
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Didn't St. Louis trade an OF to Atlanta for a starting pitcher a couple of years ago?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #82
    Member Spitball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    5,618

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Didn't St. Louis trade an OF to Atlanta for a starting pitcher a couple of years ago?
    Since logging off I started remembering a few examples.
    Matt Clement for Mark Kotsay
    Woody Williams for Ray Lankford
    Jon Leiber for Brant Brown

    You're probably thinking of J.D. Drew for Jason Marquis.

    I'm not sure I'd take any of these outfielders.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  9. #83
    Member Spitball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    5,618

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    And Guillen was a known headcase and his breakout was screaming 1 year wonder. Anyone could have had him at the beginning of the year for nothing.
    Wait a minute, you brought this guy's name into the discussion. What is your point? Throw out the "beginning of the season" comment because this was at a point he was putting up good numbers (337/385/629 line, with 23 homers in 315 ABs) which resulted in a rich contract at the end of the season.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  10. #84
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    283

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    I'd just like to point out in fairness to BP that it is just one writer's opinion. BP has a number of writers all of whom probably have slightly different takes on WMP. For instance, despite PECOTA's love for Wily Mo, Nate Silver has never claimed that it proves that PECOTA is perfect or that Wily Mo is destined for greatness. In fact they've taken pains to dissuade people from jumping to any such conclusions.

    I would say the general attitude is guarded optimism about Wily Mo. I personally feel the same way and wish we could have found a better trade for him. Plus, I keep imagining scenarios where our offensively potent outfielders are all on the disabled list(Dunn excepted) and really the scenario doesn't take any giant stretch of the imagination on my part.
    "Announcing your plans is a good way to hear god laugh" -Al Swearengen, Deadwood

  11. #85
    Member Spitball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    5,618

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Was Wily Mo Pena in danger of being exposed if he had played full time in Cincinnati?

    I'm not sure that Pena wasn't in danger of becoming exposed if he had been placed in full time duty in Cincinnati. A batter's tendencies get around and holes in a swing become common knowledge. His second half line was .290/.401/.691 was not pretty. How much was hamstring and how much was "the book" on Pena?

    Pena has obvious holes, and I personally feel the Reds did Pena a huge favor by trading him to a situation where he can continue to develop in a limited role. He hits very well against left handed pitching so being in a platoon situation should help him.

    I don't believe it helped Pena's future in Cincy that he chose to play for the Dominican Republic rather than get needed at bats to work on his development. If he had continued to put up numbers like he did in the second half, his value would have fallen badly.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  12. #86
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I must have misunderstood. I don't read entire threads, particularly if they're long.
    you don't read the section that you quoted?

  13. #87
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball
    This was a bad trade but the Reds survived. In fact, within four years they were in the World Series and on the verge of becoming one of the greatest teams of all time.
    Reds would have won a couple more WS championships without the deal. Mistakes matter.

    For the record, I'm happy that WayneK is making the right kinds of moves. This one was coldly logical and courageous, and recent Reds GMs have been either illogical, emotional, or cowardly.

    Now that we've got someone who can do what needs to be done, I'm awaiting better execution of what needs to be done.

  14. #88
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball
    Wait a minute, you brought this guy's name into the discussion. What is your point? Throw out the "beginning of the season" comment because this was at a point he was putting up good numbers (337/385/629 line, with 23 homers in 315 ABs) which resulted in a rich contract at the end of the season.
    My point is by then, Guillen was what... 26-27? He had subpar years prior, and was released by TB.

    WMP is 24, has consistently shown his power potential, and his seasons DWARFED anything Guillen had done prior to being in the middle of his breakout/one year wonder season. Remember at the time, it could have easily been a one year wonder..

    Now Guillen does offer a cannon for an arm, I'll give you that. WMP has a pretty good arm too, though he needs to harness it a bit.

    My point is WMP had more value than Guillen. He's younger, produced more at a younger age, has no history of attacking walls, and is reputed to have an outstanding work ethic coupled with a willingness to learn.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #89
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    portland, oregon
    Posts
    14,742

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    I think you are underestimating the boost in value that Guillen got from being a player playing to his ptential (or above it) in the midst of a pennat race.

    Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.

    WMP OTOH, while pehaps having a higher ceiling than Guillen, still is a project and is not viewed as an everyday player by many, including his new employers. (see 3 year OPS split against RH of .740)
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  16. #90
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,574

    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    I think you are underestimating the boost in value that Guillen got from being a player playing to his ptential (or above it) in the midst of a pennat race.

    Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.

    WMP OTOH, while pehaps having a higher ceiling than Guillen, still is a project and is not viewed as an everyday player by many, including his new employers. (see 3 year OPS split against RH of .740)
    Good points, Pedro. You show that comparing trades must recognize the market conditions when attempting to assign fair value to a player. The time of year that a player is valued will certainly affect that.

    But, one cannot then say that a player's value will always be higher if the attempt to deal is made during a pennant race because one does not know who the contenders will be (and I would not recommend making any suppositions on who might be) and if they will need your most marketable commodities to push their value up. While that was certainly an option Krivsky could have taken here and assumed the risk that WMP value would hold or continue to increase, he decided to cash in on current value, which Arroyo was arguably (not by me, but others make good points) pretty fair shakes.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25