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Thread: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

  1. #166
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Here's a fun list that Wily Mo Pena makes, HR/BB ratio of 0.80 and higher, including some pitchers:
    Code:
    nameLast    nameFirst  yr1  yrfin   HR   BB  HR/BB
    Richard     J.R.       1971  1980   10    4  2.50
    Hernandez   Livan      1996  2005    7    5  1.40
    Valenzuela  Fernando   1980  1997   10    8  1.25
    Cloninger   Tony       1961  1972   11    9  1.22
    Greene      Todd       1996  2005   69   57  1.21
    Schroeder   Bill       1983  1990   61   58  1.05
    Soriano     Alfonso    1999  2005  162  157  1.03
    Hancock     Garry      1978  1984   12   12  1.00
    Meyerle     Levi       1871  1884   10   10  1.00
    Conley      Gene       1952  1963    5    5  1.00
    Schneider   Pete       1914  1919    5    5  1.00
    Show        Eric       1981  1991    4    4  1.00
    Armas       Tony       1976  1989  251  260  0.97
    Gonzalez    Juan       1989  2005  434  457  0.95
    Pena        Wily Mo    2002  2005   51   54  0.94
    Demeter     Don        1956  1967  163  180  0.91
    Dean        Dizzy      1930  1947    8    9  0.89
    Roberts     Dave       1969  1981    7    8  0.88
    Mora        Andres     1976  1980   27   31  0.87
    Paquette    Craig      1993  2003   99  120  0.83
    Batista     Tony       1996  2004  214  260  0.82
    Garcia      Karim      1995  2004   66   81  0.81
    Robinson    Don        1978  1992   13   16  0.81
    Williams    Matt       1987  2003  378  469  0.81
    Quinn       Mark       1999  2002   45   56  0.80
    Bell        George     1981  1993  265  331  0.80
    Cowan       Billy      1963  1972   40   50  0.80
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

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  3. #167
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Well, I guess we'll have a better view at the AS Break and in October.
    Of course. But the decision maker has to act with foresight and be held accountable for it.

  4. #168
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    He just seems to be that kind of player now. And i think the OBP will rise to an eventual plateau of around .355-.360. while his SLG hovers at .590+
    Maybe for 1 season, but something has to give BA, Walks.. guys don't slug that high without OB higher than .360, it's a rarity

    Code:
    SEASON
    SLG >= .590
    OBA <= .360
    AVERAGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    WALKS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR    RC/G      SLG      OBA      AVG      BB       AGE    
    1    Andres Galarraga         1996     7.96     .601     .357     .304       40       35   
    2    Dave Kingman             1979     7.57     .613     .343     .288       45       30   
    3    Andres Galarraga         1994     7.51     .592     .356     .319       19       33   
    4    George Bell              1987     7.46     .605     .352     .308       39       27   
    5    Ernie Banks              1955     7.15     .596     .345     .295       45       24   
    6    Joe Adcock               1956     6.79     .597     .337     .291       32       28   
    7    Matt Williams            1994     6.51     .607     .319     .267       33       28
    That's 7 players total out of 4253 guys since 1955 when it first happened who got 500 AB's in a season. That's 0.16%.

    Lottery ticket players are something I've tried to steer away from, WMP is a whole truck load of scratches and sniffs.

  5. #169
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    woy, all of what you say may come to pass, but one thing i have gleaned from your posts over the years is that sometimes you have to look at the player.

    WMP is unique in how he was signed coupled with a lack of development in the minors AND limited PT in the bigs. Add to that the "hit your way off the island" mentality that the D.R. produces, and you get a player with NO comps. At least no comps in life experience. Pena is uncharted territory for any club. To say he can't succeed or won't progress ignores what he has done without the PROPER baseball education.

    He's a physical marvel, and every advancement in his game is due to his willingness to learn and likely accept that he has holes in his game. recognizing those holes is step one. correcting them is step two.

    I remember someone on this board, SC Reds Fan I think, did an interview with EE once. One of the thing EE said he wanted to work on was is OB, OB, OB. He was praised for that. WMP has said much the same thing, but it gets dismissed as likely to never happen. But Pena is still young. So why does his development end now?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #170
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    woy, all of what you say may come to pass, but one thing i have gleaned from your posts over the years is that sometimes you have to look at the player.

    WMP is unique in how he was signed coupled with a lack of development in the minors AND limited PT in the bigs. Add to that the "hit your way off the island" mentality that the D.R. produces, and you get a player with NO comps. At least no comps in life experience. Pena is uncharted territory for any club. To say he can't succeed or won't progress ignores what he has done without the PROPER baseball education.

    He's a physical marvel, and every advancement in his game is due to his willingness to learn and likely accept that he has holes in his game. recognizing those holes is step one. correcting them is step two.

    I remember someone on this board, SC Reds Fan I think, did an interview with EE once. One of the thing EE said he wanted to work on was is OB, OB, OB. He was praised for that. WMP has said much the same thing, but it gets dismissed as likely to never happen. But Pena is still young. So why does his development end now?

    In 2004/2005, at ages 22 and 23, here are Pena's BBs to ABs: 42BB/647 ABs

    In 2005, at age 22, Encarnacion did this in 211 ABs: 20 BBs.

    Obviously that's a pretty dinky sample size for Encarnacion; but couple that with his minor league numbers and you're looking at Encarnacion's apple to Pena's orange, IMO.

  7. #171
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    I remember someone on this board, SC Reds Fan I think, did an interview with EE once. One of the thing EE said he wanted to work on was is OB, OB, OB. He was praised for that. WMP has said much the same thing, but it gets dismissed as likely to never happen. But Pena is still young. So why does his development end now?
    • Encarnacion's career minor league walk ratio = 1 BB per 11.67 PA with a .290 career minor league BA, which helps produce a .353 career minor league OBP
    • Pena's career minor league walk ratio = 1 BB per 14.93 PA with a .256 career minor league BA, which helps produce a .314 career minor league OBP

    In short, 34 point difference in BA + better walk ratio = 39 point difference in OBP.

    Encarnacion has shown the ability throughout his entire professional career that he should put up 50+ walks over the course of a full season, and could easily approach 60 walks. When you combine that with with his career .290 minor league BA, it's much more feasible to foresee him putting up some solid OBP numbers.

    BTW, in Encarnacion's small major league plate appearances, he's maintained an ability to draw walks at a clip of one walk every 11.7 PA. As I've noted earlier in the thread, Pena's walk ratio in the majors is horrid, and has dropped to one walk every 16.63 plate appearances.

    And, let's not forget, Encarnacion is also a year younger than Pena.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  8. #172
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    WMP has said much the same thing, but it gets dismissed as likely to never happen. But Pena is still young. So why does his development end now?
    WMP averaged a BB every 17 ab's in MLB and 1/13.5 in ML

    EE in ML 1 every 11.

    WMP has never hit above .270 at any level, EE's lifetime AAA BA was .314 , AA .278 A .291 and Rookie Ball .288

    WMP has way more power, but EE will probably spend more time on base than WMP based on his bat control and his eye.

  9. #173
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Here's a fun list that Wily Mo Pena makes, HR/BB ratio of 0.80 and higher, including some pitchers:
    Fernando Valenzuela was a monster at the plate.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  10. #174
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Signed OF-L Terrence Long to a minor league contract; released OF-R Steve Smitherman; reassigned RHP Jake Robbins to their minor league camp. [3/27]

    Acquired C-R Ryan Jorgensen for INF Carlos Piste. [3/28]

    T-Dog, on top of Alex Sanchez and Quinton McCracken? Apparently the "Bad Fifth Outfielders" traveling exhibit from the Hall of Fame is settling in as part of the permanent landscape in Cincinnati. Some fans might wish this was about adding veteran depth to a moribund farm system, but this doesn't really achieve that, certainly not any better than having Jason Romano and Pedro Swann at Louisville last year. Not to take anything away from Chris Denorfia's defensive prowess in center, but he's going to be hard-pressed covering all of the outfield at Louisville. It would be difficult to find two less instinctual or effective outfielders than Long and Sanchez, and neither seem likely to help the Bats do well in that all-important pennant chase in the International League.
    That's the latest transaction analysis, not to distract from the thumbs up/thumbs down Pena-Arroyo discussion .
    "Announcing your plans is a good way to hear god laugh" -Al Swearengen, Deadwood

  11. #175
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    woy, all of what you say may come to pass, but one thing i have gleaned from your posts over the years is that sometimes you have to look at the player.

    WMP is unique in how he was signed coupled with a lack of development in the minors AND limited PT in the bigs. Add to that the "hit your way off the island" mentality that the D.R. produces, and you get a player with NO comps. At least no comps in life experience. Pena is uncharted territory for any club. To say he can't succeed or won't progress ignores what he has done without the PROPER baseball education.

    He's a physical marvel, and every advancement in his game is due to his willingness to learn and likely accept that he has holes in his game. recognizing those holes is step one. correcting them is step two.
    And Pena's immense physical skills are why I was one of the few (along with Puffy, Stormy, and a short list of others) who never supported the idea that waiving him was the right option.

    Basically, what we're seeing now in the pro-Pena camp is an expectation that a guy with Pena's lack of seasoning and nigh-unprecidented physical tools equals a player with dramatic room to grow beyond a version (the 2004-2005) most folks never even thought he'd be. That comes after a "waive him", "maybe not", "better pick him up for the fantasy team", "we just got a 200 IP MLB SP for him and should be happy" progression from the other side of the fence.

    Mind you, that's a reasonable at which to sell short on Pena, particularly if one was calling for Pena's dumping prior to 2004 because at that point the difference between "worthless" and "Bronson Arroyo" is actually huge. Not only do I understand that thought process, but I back it almost to a fault.

    But not this time.

    He's a bigger, stronger, younger just-as-raw version of Bo Jackson. Most players that comp the least bit with Pena do or did it because of bat speed (Juan Gonzalez, Sosa, Soriano). Pena does it on bat speed plus strength enough to change the trajectory of his swing during the offering and can just push the baseball out of the park.

    The last player I've seen nearly as strong is Mark McGwire. The last player I've seen that naturally nearly as strong is no one. But McGwire's power was a product of plate discipline and a shortened stroke that allowed him to utilize his power to "push" the ball out. But that short stroke still didn't allow McGwire to adjust mid-swing. Pena can do that. It's ridiculous that he can do that and still hit with power. Pujols can do it but Pujols is similarly special in that his pitch recognition allows him to hold off on many pitches Pena offers at.

    Here's something pretty interesting (to me at least):

    Over the past two seasons, Pena's average Isolated Power is .253 IsoP. Here's a list of the players since 2000 who've put up an IsoP of .253 or higher in a season through age 24 (minimum 325 PA):

    Mark Teixeira
    Albert Pujols (2 seasons)
    Troy Glaus

    Now, does that mean Pena will produce like any of those three overall? No. In fact, the examples I'm giving aren't at all meant to be true comps for Pena. But it does intrigue me that his IsoP is topped only by three guys in the past six years while I extended the search to include those who posted only 325 PA. The connecting point for all three above is that they had college experience that at least replicated a big portion of Pena's minor league experience while he was rushed.

    Pena had discipline problems and hasn't yet figured out how to truly hit RHP. No doubt. But his minor league AB/BB rate was 1 BB for every 13.66 AB. Not so good. Yet his final real minor league season as a 20-year-old in AA (2002) saw his BB rate peak at 1 BB for every 10.78 AB. Pena's last two MLB seasons have seen him produce BB rates of 1 BB/15.27 AB (2004) and 1BB/15.55 AB (200). Those numbers include only one IBB combined. Can that ratio work? Well, Juan Gonzalez produced a hefty MLB career while acquiring a non-Intentional BB rate of 1 BB/16.71 AB after a minor league BB rate of 1 BB/14.23 AB. So yeah, it's possible but improbable for most.

    But then, Pena isn't "most". Right now he's starting to figure stuff out. It's all on him. And if he does figure it out (as I suggest he will) this will be a trade to regret. That being said, I completely understand where other folks are coming from and if the player in question wasn't Wily Mo Pena, I'd agree with them.
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  12. #176
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    I actually think Pena's tremendous massiness will end up being a liability to his career, not an asset. I suspect it's exactly why he's been so brittle at such a young age.

  13. #177
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I actually think Pena's tremendous massiness will end up being a liability to his career, not an asset. I suspect it's exactly why he's been so brittle at such a young age.
    Funny, because a lot of players (Eric Davis and Reggie Sanders come to mind) were accused of being brittle because they weren't massive enough.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  14. #178
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    Funny, because a lot of players (Eric Davis and Reggie Sanders come to mind) were accused of being brittle because they weren't massive enough.
    Perhaps they are all three at extremes, just at different ends of the spectrum.

  15. #179
    Member Red Heeler's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    E.D. was brittle because he had a habit of regularly running full speed (very fast, in his case) into stationary objects. He was involved in the equivalent of a low speed car crash on a regular basis.

  16. #180
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    The Arroyo-Pena deal and whether its good or bad certainly is one that is debatable.

    But I think this move as a bolster-up-the-2005-staff shouldn't be underestimated. The Reds' revenue is very much a gate-driven thing and Reds fans historically are very fickle and fair weather.

    If the Reds tank early, the fans will say "ho-hum, when does football start" and go off to Kings Island. This move at least mitigates a flaming disaster of a staff into a garden-variety disaster.

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