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Thread: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

  1. #61
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    a peacock?

    well that's something. dunno what, but something.

    I hope I am wrong about Arroyo, but I see a lot of Jimmy Haynes in the man.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #62
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Because Fenway supresses HR's or at least it did last year, and GABP welcomes them like a mother does a son returning from war. BTW, how was breakfast?
    GABP is a neutral park for run scoring. It's played like a hitter's park once (2005), a pitcher's park once (2004) and a neutral park once (2003). Yes, it gives up home runs, but it's absolutely terrible for ground balls, doubles, singles and triples. The overall run factor is neutral.

    Fenway park is hitter's dream, and you're kidding yourself if you think otherwise. It's been a hitter's dream since the 1920s/1930s, and unless this infusion of new parks alters the pendelum quite a bit, it will continue to be a hitter's dream.
    • Joe Cronin played for the Red Sox from 1935-1945; Fenway Park was a hitter's park in every season for him.
    • Ted Williams played for the Red Sox from 1939-1960 (excluding war years); Fenway Park was a hitter's park in every season for him (106 career park factor).
    • Carl Yastrzemski played for the Red Sox from 1961-1983; Fenway Park was a hitter's park in every season for him (107 career park factor).
    • Jim Rice played for the Red Sox from 1974-1989; Fenway Park was a hitter's park in every season for him (106 career park factor).
    • Mo Vaughn played for the Red Sox from 1991-1998; Fenway Park was a hitter's park in the vast majority of his seasons, and at worst a neutral park in a handful of seasons (104 career park factor).


    On occasion, Fenway will play out a season as a neutral park for run scoring, but it is historically always been an excellent hitter's park. In 2005, Fenway did play as an overall neutral park, however, in both 2003 and 2004 it played as the hitter's park that's it been known to play as historically.
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  4. #63
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    a peacock?
    Yeah the neighborhood has a peacock that works the front porches, it's pretty tame.

  5. #64
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    ya know the more i read your posts, the more i want you to write a book. BTW really like your new website.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #65
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Yeah the neighborhood has a peacock that works the front porches, it's pretty tame.
    That's far more interesting than the game of Arroyo/Pena pong we've been playing.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  7. #66
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Then what is Arroyo? He seems very Haynesish right now. doesn't K anyone, flyball pitcher.

    I think Fenway was huge for him. Unless a lefty yanked it down the line he had the advantage. CF will keep balls in the park, and he was good against righties.

    GABP offers no such protection.
    I don't think you can find evidentiary support for that assumption.

    Arroyo has a 3 year hom/away split ERA of 4.91 / 3.48 with a 50/34 break in HR's so I'm not sure how Fenway played as an advantage for him.

    Further, while he had a more extreme ratio last year, his career GB/FB numbers are 776 to 792 which doesn't make him an extreme FB pitcher IMO.

    Eric Milton OTOH, has a career GB/FB split of 1345 to 2226.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  8. #67
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    then it was a very bad trade. Especially since he's still pretty cheap.
    That's the kind of thinking that paralyzed Dan O'Brien. Make a move. The Cubs had lots of bad teams even with Sammy Sosa. The White Sox traded him and didn't fall off the face of the Earth.

    If a team has too many outfielders and awful pitching, it doesn't take a chemistry professor to figure that one out. You balance it out by unloading an outfielder, even though outfielders are not going to bring you the kind of pitching a shortstop would bring.

    Now, if people were saying he could be the next Miguel Tejada, the Reds would have gotten more than Arrojo.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  9. #68
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    That's far more interesting than the game of Arroyo/Pena pong we've been playing.
    Yeah, the damn thing will crap on your car and poke it's head out of nowhere to look in the window, the cats follow it all round the house window to window. It used to be paired up with a male that was her baby at one time, he had the full feathers going on and would let loose with the patented peacock yell every now and then. But he also was a little aggressive and dumb, he often attacked his reflection in the paneling of cars, I guess that was an issue and one day there was an article in the paper and a few weeks later he was no longer around.

  10. #69
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    The main thing that worries about Arroyo is that he doesn't miss bats and my biggest concern about the 06 Reds is the defense(not the 05 Sox were anything to write home about).

    As much as anything I think the traded for the cost certainty and low injury risk.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  11. #70
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball
    That's the kind of thinking that paralyzed Dan O'Brien. Make a move.
    you never want to make a dumb move. FRobby/ Pappas comes to mind


    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball
    If a team has too many outfielders and awful pitching, it doesn't take a chemistry professor to figure that one out. You balance it out by unloading an outfielder.
    you have other OFers and you have other opportunities to trade this one. It's a big gamble without a huge reward. I'm hoping that it turns out better than Brock/Broglio.

  12. #71
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball
    That's the kind of thinking that paralyzed Dan O'Brien. Make a move. The Cubs had lots of bad teams even with Sammy Sosa. The White Sox traded him and didn't fall off the face of the Earth.

    If a team has too many outfielders and awful pitching, it doesn't take a chemistry professor to figure that one out. You balance it out by unloading an outfielder, even though outfielders are not going to bring you the kind of pitching a shortstop would bring.

    Now, if people were saying he could be the next Miguel Tejada, the Reds would have gotten more than Arrojo.
    If you put Aaron Harang and Arroyo on the Red Sox this year, which makes the rotation?

    Harang.

    Then why get less for WMP than the Reds got for Guillen?

    Let's make one thing clear. I was not against moving WMP. Well maybe a little, but I understand the need to acquire good starting pitching, but Arroyo wasn't much different than Dave Williams last year. Does anyone know what kind of park Pittsburgh plays in?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #72
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    If you put Aaron Harang and Arroyo on the Red Sox this year, which makes the rotation?
    Likely neither. He might--MIGHT--have unseated Wakefield, but Schilling, Beckett, Wells and Clement are set.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  14. #73
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    I doubt he's have knocked Wakefield out, but they were pretty down on Clement. He could have unseated Boomer too.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #74
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    that's why it seemed to go without saying. It was already said
    I must have misunderstood. I don't read entire threads, particularly if they're long.

    If it's trammeled ground, excuse me.

  16. #75
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    you never want to make a dumb move. FRobby/ Pappas comes to mind
    This was a bad trade but the Reds survived. In fact, within four years they were in the World Series and on the verge of becoming one of the greatest teams of all time.

    you have other OFers and you have other opportunities to trade this one. It's a big gamble without a huge reward. I'm hoping that it turns out better than Brock/Broglio.
    These trades are both 40 or more years old. Besides salary dumps, who has traded an outfielder for a starting pitcher in the last five years?

    Originally Posted by TRF
    Then why get less for WMP than the Reds got for Guillen?
    Harang wasn't a 14 game winner coming off 200 innings pitched. Besides, Wily Mo has not put up the kind of numbers Guillen was putting up that season nor has he played defense like Guillen. Besides, who was offering more than Arroyo? Were else was there a team with a surplus of starting pitchers and needing another outfielder?
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