BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[TRF]

There is no such thing as a star with a .310 OBP in a high powered offensive era like the one we're currently in. In fact, Wily Mo Pena's career relative OBP is 0.89. For a corner outfielder, that's nothing more than a gaping, out-making machine in the lineup in addition to a severe liability in the field defensively.

To put it in perspective how lousy Pena's OBP is, Tony Womack's career OBP is 12 points higher than Wily Mo Pena's, and Womack's relative OBP is also higher at 0.91.

Isn't Womack like 36?

Isn't Pena 24?

I'm betting pena will develop. It's the crux of my arguement. I also think we won't see anything more from Arroyo than we will Dave Williams. I might be wrong. I hope I am about Arroyo, but I feel certain I am not about WMP. he had a good winter campaign and he's having an even better ST. My thinking is he's the starter by the AS break at the earliest, and the job is his fulltime next year.

[traderumor]

Isn't Womack like 36?

Isn't Pena 24?

I'm betting pena will develop. It's the crux of my arguement. I also think we won't see anything more from Arroyo than we will Dave Williams. I might be wrong. I hope I am about Arroyo, but I feel certain I am not about WMP. he had a good winter campaign and he's having an even better ST. My thinking is he's the starter by the AS break at the earliest, and the job is his fulltime next year.

With Ramirez in left and Pena in right? Have a hard time seeing Francona running that out there every day.

[TRF]

All Pena really has to do is get his OBP around .330, and yes, I see that happening this year. And when he does, he'll be the starter in RF or wherever for a decade.

[westofyou]

All Pena really has to do is get his OBP around .330, and yes, I see that happening this year.

Just like Dmitre Young last year, a whole .007 better than the league in RC/27

[Cyclone792]

Isn't Womack like 36?

Isn't Pena 24?

I'm betting pena will develop. It's the crux of my arguement. I also think we won't see anything more from Arroyo than we will Dave Williams. I might be wrong. I hope I am about Arroyo, but I feel certain I am not about WMP. he had a good winter campaign and he's having an even better ST. My thinking is he's the starter by the AS break at the earliest, and the job is his fulltime next year.

It's a very poor bet to bet Pena will develop. That's the crux of the other side of the argument. It's absolutely defying a tall, brick wall of odds. If Pena does defy it, congrats to him, but banking on Pena developing into what Pena supporters think he can develop into is as good of a decision as consistently drafting high school pitchers in the first round of amateur drafts.

You're heavily going against the odds. If Pena never defies the odds and fails to take a mighty, abnormal leap in figuring out the strike zone and picking up some plate discipline, he'll turn into the most overrated and overpriced 40 home run corner outfielder in the entire league.

The average player development bell curve for walks has the ratio between 0.75 and 0.80 for a player of Pena's age. What that means is if Pena follows the average career path, he'll have an increase of about one to two walks per a full season of plate appearances for about the next six to seven seasons. That's what, maybe 10 more walks per full season by the time he's 30-years-old? If you think that seems low, then consider that Pena's walk ratios have actually gone down since 2003, not slightly up as natural aging and development would indicate. The guy's been going backwards in the one fundamental skill he needs to develop in order to become a productive major league hitter.

Other than being BABIP hit lucky, Pena just simply will not be much better than he's already shown us unless he dramatically improves his plate discipline and figures out the difference between balls and strikes.

And then we've got this:

Pena's 2003-2005 road line: .234/.287/.462
Pena's 2003-2005 line vs. RHP: .237/.286/.454

Wily Mo Pena is exactly what Theo Epstein traded for: a commodity known to hit LHP since what the Red Sox needed was an outfielder that could have success against LHP. If Pena develops into a monster, then it's just icing on the cake for the Red Sox. Epstein didn't acquire Pena because of upside or potential; he acquired Pena to fill an OF void against LHP. Pena's a productive hitter vs. LHP with an .883 OPS vs. southpaws in the last three seasons, nobody is disputing that, but he'll face righties in 2/3 of his plate appearances if he's ever a regular player. And saying those plate appearances against righties won't be pretty is being pretty nice about it.

[registerthis]

With Ramirez in left and Pena in right? Have a hard time seeing Francona running that out there every day.

That could be the most atrocious corner defense ever seen.

[westofyou]

Epstein didn't acquire Pena because of upside or potential; he acquired Pena to fill an OF void against LHP.

Yep, and IF he develops he'll do it despite not getting a full season of AB's and IF he doesn't then when his power makes him expensive they'll move him along.

[TRF]

And IF he does it, and his winter and spring numbers indicate he just might be heading in that direction, you have a player that could be putting up a .260+ .330+ .590+ line.

I'm sorry but a lot of Pena's problem stems from a D.R. way of thinking extended to the ML level due to a bad contract.

that thinking is: "you have to hit your way off the island."

Funny thing is he got to play winter ball and hang around guys like Ortiz. He got to soak up some baseball knowledge from guys that speak his language, And what does he say in one of his first interviews this year? he needs to learn to recognize and lay off pitches he cannot get. He needs to learn to be more patient at the plate. So he knows his flaws now. All he needs is a measure of comfort. I think he'll get that in Boston, and I am sure he would've as the LF for the Reds.

[westofyou]

And IF he does it, and his winter and spring numbers indicate he just might be heading in that direction, you have a player that could be putting up a .260+ .330+ .590+ line.

That would make him the first to ever have a line like that... except for Matt Williams who did it in the strike shortened 94 season.

RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR    RC/G      AVG      OBA      SLG    
1    Matt Williams            1994     6.51     .267     .319     .607

[TRF]

That would make him the first to ever have a line like that... except for Matt Williams who did it in the strike shortened 94 season.

RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR    RC/G      AVG      OBA      SLG    
1    Matt Williams            1994     6.51     .267     .319     .607

He just seems to be that kind of player now. And i think the OBP will rise to an eventual plateau of around .355-.360. while his SLG hovers at .590+

[Chip R]

And what does he say in one of his first interviews this year? he needs to learn to recognize and lay off pitches he cannot get. He needs to learn to be more patient at the plate. So he knows his flaws now. All he needs is a measure of comfort. I think he'll get that in Boston, and I am sure he would've as the LF for the Reds.

He very well may recognize his flaws and be very sincere about being more patient but when he gets up to the plate for real, all those patient thoughts may go out of his head and instinct takes over.

[TRF]

He very well may recognize his flaws and be very sincere about being more patient but when he gets up to the plate for real, all those patient thoughts may go out of his head and instinct takes over.

or not. At least he recognizes the flaws unlike a guy like Womack that will never get why he's an awful ballplayer.

[traderumor]

And IF he does it, and his winter and spring numbers indicate he just might be heading in that direction, you have a player that could be putting up a .260+ .330+ .590+ line.

I'm sorry but a lot of Pena's problem stems from a D.R. way of thinking extended to the ML level due to a bad contract.

that thinking is: "you have to hit your way off the island."

Funny thing is he got to play winter ball and hang around guys like Ortiz. He got to soak up some baseball knowledge from guys that speak his language, And what does he say in one of his first interviews this year? he needs to learn to recognize and lay off pitches he cannot get. He needs to learn to be more patient at the plate. So he knows his flaws now. All he needs is a measure of comfort. I think he'll get that in Boston, and I am sure he would've as the LF for the Reds.

Yea, and I recognize that I should lay off eating a whole large pizza by myself, but that doesn't mean I have the ability to do so. I think this "being around big Papi" thing is being waaaaaaaaaaaaay overplayed. If you wanna play that card, then you also have to watch out for the trump of Manny and his male PMS.

And to think that WMP is gonna get "a measure of comfort" in Beantown when he goes on a whiff binge that could rival any of Tony Montanya's coke snorting binges is really reaching for reasons that WMP will fulfill your expectations.

[Cyclone792]

And IF he does it, and his winter and spring numbers indicate he just might be heading in that direction, you have a player that could be putting up a .260+ .330+ .590+ line.

I'm sorry but a lot of Pena's problem stems from a D.R. way of thinking extended to the ML level due to a bad contract.

that thinking is: "you have to hit your way off the island."

Funny thing is he got to play winter ball and hang around guys like Ortiz. He got to soak up some baseball knowledge from guys that speak his language, And what does he say in one of his first interviews this year? he needs to learn to recognize and lay off pitches he cannot get. He needs to learn to be more patient at the plate. So he knows his flaws now. All he needs is a measure of comfort. I think he'll get that in Boston, and I am sure he would've as the LF for the Reds.

His winter and spring numbers are a grand total of about 100 plate appearances, many of which are likely against inferior pitching compared to the major league level. The small sample size and level of competition has created a set of statistics that just don't have much stock.

FWIW, guys like Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have always been able to draw a walk ever since they first arrived in the league. They walked once every eight or nine plate appearances upon arrival, compared to Pena who walks once every 16.5 plate appearances. For Pena to throw up a .330 OBP with a .260 BA, he's going to have to walk once every 10.5 plate appearances, and would draw approximately 60 walks in a full season. That's a long, long way from the once every 16 plate appearances he's shown thus far, especially since Pena's shown no improvement whatsoever in his walk rates. It's heavily going against the odds, unless all he faces is LHP.

I do think the chances of Pena developing into this magical player are slightly better in Boston than in Cincinnati because A) Fenway Park, B) Boston's front office philosophy, and C) to a very very small extent, Ortiz and Ramirez may be able to help him. But I still don't think those chances are anything to get excited about, especially considering none of those factors were prevalent had we kept him here.

[TRF]

Well, I guess we'll have a better view at the AS Break and in October.