To paraphrase Eddie Murphy, if someone hands you a cracker, you think, "hey, a cracker" and you eat it, and it's...well, a cracker. But if you're starving and someone hands you a cracker, you think it's the best cracker you've ever had. "That was a good cracker! Was that a Ritz?"Originally Posted by TRF
Arroyo is the cracker to the pitching-starved Reds fan.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
And Pena was a saltine.
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
It's not a simple dismissal, though--that's just it. Those of us who disagree with that opinion have very good reasons for doing so. And I'm not particularly concerned about what perceived authority is stating this or that, if I (or others) disagree, it's because we have evidence which leads us to a different conclusion.
BP is entitled to their opinion about the trade, but their word is not gospel, and they're privy to the same stats and analysis that we all have seen.
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
Pena was more like that hamburger you intend to grill. You put it on, but you keep turning off the propane tank for extended periods of time. Eventually, your burger will get cooked, but it might be a little uneven. certainly a little raw.
analogies are fun!
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Sure. And the Reds should have found a starving man to trade him to.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
Or Pena's the burger that looks good coming out of the package, but when you grill it it shrivels in size and never tastes quite right.
What kind of burger is Pena going to be? Who knows. I'm just consistently amused that Mystery Prospect, whoever that could have been, would have made this trade that much more palatable for you. As if Boston throwing in a AA equivalent of Tuffy Rhodes would somehow have balanced this trade out more.
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
If Arroyo was worthless and not a much-needed improvement to this club, I might be inclined to agree. As it stands, I'm quite content with the trade--starving man analogies notwithstanding.
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
that is true.
School's out. What did you expect?
Yeah batting only against RH's and being a role playerNever said my opinion was infallible. IMO this arguement will be settled sometime in October. Thing is WMP is likely to still be playing meaningful games. playoff games.
I wish I had a dollar for every ballplayer I've heard that about.I know WMP has a low OBP. I'm of the opinion that is something he can raise. He's said it was a problem area that he intends to work on,
WMP is a much better risk-- he improved a LOT in 2004 and held at that level in 2005. Reds are betting that he plateaued, but 24-year-olds improve, and 24-year-olds that have already played a lot in the majors often become stars.
Arroyo is much more the risk, because he's not actually coming off a plateau, he's coming off a decline. In his defense, pitchers are pretty unpredictable-- what looks like a decline often turns out to be just a bad year. The declining K's are the big red flag.
WMP has tools that could still be skills. And he has the biggest skill: power.
Arroyo's biggest "skills" are that he might be able to give innings and he has an acceptable contract.
the Reds took on more risk, and the contract made the risk more acceptable. But this has to happen if you actually want to win a few games and don't develop your own pitching. It reminds me of John Hart's Indians deals: Dave Burba, etc.
the real thing to watch is whether a few more wins allows the Reds to draw more fans, to carry a bigger payroll and to be in play for other cost-dependent moves. It's like improving your bathroom-- if you're selling your house and you've got a really bad bathroom, then a better bathroom might more than pay for itself. But it's too bad that the bathroom wasn't already in decent shape.
Well, BP also has really latched on to Pena because their PECOTA projection system actually called his 2004 breakout at a time when nobody else thought he'd amount to a hill of (rice and) beans because of his contract and awful 2003.
I'm not sure that counts as "overvaluing" on its own, but since their system really favors players who are in the majors at a young age, you could say they "overvalue" any player in Pena's age category who has both major strengths and major holes in his game.
PECOTA isn't unjustified in its love for experienced 24-year-old major leaguers. Most baseball people agree with the general perception.
That works two ways, though. Fear of a hitter's power forces pitchers to pitch more carefully, true. That should lead to more walks. But that presumes a certain level of plate discipline, doesn't it? What if the pitchers are already doing that, and the hitter's chasing and whiffing instead of walking? I argued in a thread a month or so ago that Pena's already being pitched in a manner that could lead to a healthy walk rate, but he's not taking them. Everyone knows he can hit the ball 500 feet, and they also know he'll chase junk. Pitchers aren't going to do anything differently until WMP makes them. But if he'll adjust and make pitchers understand they'll have to come over the plate to get him out, he'll have more chances to launch the ball to the moon.
Power can lead to walks, but in WMP's case, walks will lead to power.
The other thing that affected the situation is that Pena's already into his arbitration years. When or if he breaks out, his price tag will reflect it. Sadly, his days as a source of cheap power are about over. And if he's like Sosa and doesn't have his breakout until his late 20s, what good does that do the Reds if he's already eligible for free agency or about to be?
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
I don't believe pinning a guy to Sammy Sosa's "development" will get you very far. For every Sosa, there are 10 guys who just never learned the strike zone.
Will WMP become Sammy or the other 10 guys. Of course we don't know but I wouldn't put money on him becoming Sammy.
Maybe he isn't Sosa. Mybe he's Ruben Sierra. I prefer Sierra to the next Esteban Loaiza.
And before i hear anything about his 2005 numbers, Loaiza's had exactly 2 good seasons in his 11 year career.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
They did not add any new information and there's a multiple page discussion on the issue. What is there left to address?
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