BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[Spitball]

The other thing that affected the situation is that Pena's already into his arbitration years. When or if he breaks out, his price tag will reflect it. Sadly, his days as a source of cheap power are about over. And if he's like Sosa and doesn't have his breakout until his late 20s, what good does that do the Reds if he's already eligible for free agency or about to be?

Good point. The Arroyo trade might not work out in the long run, but it hopefully signifies a change in direction for this franchise. A movement away from building this team around a core of stud outfielders to a team recognizing the need for pitching.

Trading Pena might be a gamble, but a gamble that needed to be made. Dang it, let's not be Dan O'Brien-ish about this, so what if Pena turns into Sammy Sosa? Would you want to invest big bucks to keep the next Sammy Sosa in Cincinnati so the Reds could continue to have chump change left over for pitching? I'd rather invest big bucks on pitching and have chump change left over to pay outfielders.

[princeton]

so what if Pena turns into Sammy Sosa?

then it was a very bad trade. Especially since he's still pretty cheap.

[Falls City Beer]

then it was a very bad trade. Especially since he's still pretty cheap.

Not if it takes him four more years to crack his lead pupa.

[pedro]

Maybe he isn't Sosa. Mybe he's Ruben Sierra. I prefer Sierra to the next Esteban Loaiza.

and maybe he's tony batista without the glove.

[princeton]

Not if it takes him four more years to crack his lead pupa.

apparently that didn't need to go without saying

[Falls City Beer]

apparently that didn't need to go without saying

Right. Because you made the qualification that he's cheap for now. In four years you'll be paying him at a Sosa level even if he's producing at his current rate.

I think my qualification is absolutely paramount to the discussion--it's not whether Pena becomes the next Sosa, it's when. Really nothing else matters.

Boston admires him so much, they're platooning him.

[KronoRed]

and maybe he's tony batista without the glove.

If he could play 3rd we'd have kept him

[princeton]

Right. Because you made the qualification that he's cheap for now..

that's why it seemed to go without saying. It was already said

[TRF]

and maybe he's tony batista without the glove.

Then what is Arroyo? He seems very Haynesish right now. doesn't K anyone, flyball pitcher.

I think Fenway was huge for him. Unless a lefty yanked it down the line he had the advantage. CF will keep balls in the park, and he was good against righties.

GABP offers no such protection.

[traderumor]

Does a 50/50 split of GO/AO make someone a flyball pitcher?

[Cyclone792]

I think Fenway was huge for him.

Ummm ...

Arroyo 2003-2005

Fenway IP    198.2
Road IP      202.2

Fenway ERA    4.94
Road ERA      3.48

Fenway K/9    5.35
Road K/9      6.13
 
Fenway BB/9   2.54
Road BB/9     2.18

Fenway HR/9   1.04
Road HR/9     0.71

[westofyou]

I think Fenway was huge for him. Unless a lefty yanked it down the line he had the advantage.

How can it be huge for him? Unless you factor in the LH HR rate at Fenway.

If he does worst against LH's it hurt him more.

Fenway against RH since 2003 rates as a 103 RH Hits/ 113 RH HR while LH is 103 LH HIT and 85 LH HR.

He gave up 15 HR's at Fenway in 2005 and 9 in 2004.

[Cyclone792]

I'll just toss this in for good measure ...

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...65&postcount=2

He tends to keep the ball in the park fairly well, but he was absolutely destroyed by doubles off the Monstah. His home/road and RHP/LHP are quite normal for a right-handed pitcher, except for his doubles rates. Here are his 2004 splits for doubles:

[PHP]Home: .078
Road: .048
Right .073
Left: .064[/PHP]

[TRF]

Because Fenway supresses HR's or at least it did last year, and GABP welcomes them like a mother does a son returning from war. BTW, how was breakfast?

[westofyou]

Because Fenway supresses HR's or at least it did last year, and GABP welcomes them like a mother does a son returning from war. BTW, how was breakfast?

Fenway suppressed only LH HR's (90 out of 100) for visitors from 2003-2005, the Red Sox themselves scored a 127/100 in those years from the left side, the supressed number looks like it's being generated by the Red Sox pitchers.

The RH was 155 Red Sox and 118 Opponents..

Breakfast was fine, the post office worst and when I got home there was a peacock on my front porch eating cat food.