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Thread: The problem with scoring

  1. #1
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    The problem with scoring

    The Reds so far have been working pitchers to death and making offense look easy.

    The danger in that is that we all know that it isn't easy. In fact, scoring runs is one of the hardest things to do in the game of baseball. And what an offense like Cincinnati's can do is create a weird type of relativism in a portion of the fan base.

    It can create the expectation that seven runs a game has somehow become the standard for measuring this offense. Yet this club isn't going to 1,100 runs this season (seven a game would get 1,134). In fact, it's not going to score 1,000 runs this season and it's highly unlikely to score 900, which would be a franchise record.

    So when the Reds score four or less runs, expect to hear that the bats are failing and that the offense needs to be fixed. If the Reds run into a good pitcher who shuts them down, expect to hear that the Reds aren't built to handle good pitching. Of course, that's an insane point to make. By definition no offense handles good pitching well. That's how you become a good pitcher, by consistently shutting down the other team.

    This offense is a joy to watch, but no team gets to score at will. It will have off days. It will run into tough pitchers. There will be days where it can only deliver three or four runs and those will be games a team needs to win on a regular basis if it wants to be a legimate contender.

    We saw last year how a good number of folks can build up false expectations about this offense and then use that to lambaste what is in fact the team's strength. My suggestion is that people instead appreciate how brutally destructive this offense can be because we won't always have it this good (scoring-wise) in the future.
    Last edited by M2; 04-07-2006 at 06:28 PM.
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  3. #2
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Did somebody say "score?"





    Good post (as usual), M2.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  4. #3
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    This is very true...here is a quote from someone in February about offense:

    With the exception of someone like Dunn, offense grows on trees. If you're not a total idiot, you can field a contending offense year in and year out.
    and here was my response, and I think it belongs in this thread too:

    I disagree with this. You only feel it grows on trees because you are a Reds fans. You know Braves fans think good pitching grows on trees.

    If offense grew on trees, the Astros would have dominated the world, and the Cubs would have made the playoffs.

    I understand that the REDS could field a contending offense if we traded those guys, but even an ace-type pitcher wouldn't help this team be much better than .500 if our offense falls back this year.

    The Brewers had an average offense (16th in runs scored), and above average pitching (10th in ERA) and still were .500.

  5. #4
    Who Dey!! GridironGrace's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Id settle for an avg of around 4 a game.

    Thats a great avg.. and i know you cant do that every game.. but if you can AVG that and get the ERA around the same... your gonna win alot of ball games.
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  6. #5
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Quote Originally Posted by GridironGrace
    Id settle for an avg of around 4 a game.

    Thats a great avg.. and i know you cant do that every game.. but if you can AVG that and get the ERA around the same... your gonna win alot of ball games.
    An average of 4 Runs per game from an offense would result in 648 Runs over the course of a season. The SF Giants scored 649 Runs in 2005 and were the second worst offensive team in baseball.

    Score that many runs and post a 4.00 ERA and the most probable result is a losing record due to the accompanying Unearned Runs (add about 40 Runs Allowed).
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  7. #6
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    4 runs a game only gives you 648 for the year.

    The Reds haven't scored that few runs since the strike-shortened 1994 season and it takes going back to 1989, where they scored 632 (and went 75-87) to find a season under 648.

    The Reds have managed to score 810+ runs (5+ per game) only three times in the past 28 years (1999 - 865, 2000 - 825, and 2005 - 820). As a matter of fact, the three most winniest seasons in the past 40 years (1975 - 108 wins, 1976 - 102 wins, and 1999 - 96 wins) the Reds have scored their three highest run totals as well in that span (840, 857, and 865 respectively).

    So, even though it is only one run, there is a huge difference between 5 runs per game and 4. You average 5, you can win it all with decent pitching. You average 4 in today's game, you better have some horses in your rotation and gold glove defense around the horn. Heck, The BRM averaged 5.23 a game during their peak years in '75 and '76. If our offense puts runs on the board like last year, we are entering those waters the BRM treaded again. It's just we have really bad pitching.

    It's a shame.

  8. #7
    Who Dey!! GridironGrace's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Ah.... i just think if u score 4 u should win. Not with our pitching but u should lol

    What was our avg last season again?
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  9. #8
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Quote Originally Posted by GridironGrace
    Ah.... i just think if u score 4 u should win. Not with our pitching but u should lol

    What was our avg last season again?
    Roughly 5.06 / game.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  10. #9
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Offense is nice as long as the runs are "Win-Efficient".
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  11. #10
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Code:
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    MODERN (1900-)
    RUNS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RUNS                          YEAR      R        R     
    1    Reds                     1999      865       10   
    2    Reds                     1976      857      178   
    3    Reds                     1975      840      147   
    T4   Reds                     2000      825      -33   
    T4   Reds                     1965      825      138   
    6    Reds                     2005      820       64   
    T7   Reds                     1962      802       35   
    T7   Reds                     1977      802       67   
    9    Reds                     1969      798      102   
    10   Reds                     1987      783       16   
    11   Reds                     1996      778      -16   
    12   Reds                     1974      776       75   
    T13  Reds                     1956      775       83   
    T13  Reds                     1970      775       16   
    15   Reds                     1939      767       34   
    16   Reds                     1922      766      -46   
    T17  Reds                     1959      764       55   
    T17  Reds                     1903      764       74   
    19   Reds                     1955      761       40   
    T20  Reds                     1998      750      -30   
    T20  Reds                     2004      750      -41

  12. #11
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Ah, the 1903 squad...
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  13. #12
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    I would like it if we scored 5 a game and gave up 2...if my math is correct, we would have a winning record then.

  14. #13
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Quote Originally Posted by GridironGrace
    Ah.... i just think if u score 4 u should win. Not with our pitching but u should lol

    What was our avg last season again?
    5.03 Runs Scored per Game.

    Keep in mind that, almost regardless of pitching quality, the bigger Win Probability swing is going to be at five Runs rather than four.

    Here are the respective records for NL playoff teams last year at four and five Runs Scored:

    4 Runs Scored:

    Houston: 13-8
    St. Louis: 15-12
    Atlanta: 15-14
    San Diego: 4-6

    5 Runs Scored:

    Houston: 8-7
    St. Louis: 16-8
    Atlanta: 15-10
    San Diego: 14-8

    In the AL...

    4 Runs Scored:

    Chicago WS: 15-6
    Anaheim: 10-11
    NY Yankees: 10-9
    Boston: 7-13

    5 Runs Scored:

    Chicago WS: 20-8
    Anaheim: 16-5
    NY Yankees: 14-7
    Boston: 12-6
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  15. #14
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Ah, the 1903 squad...
    the war between the AL and the NL provided the Reds with some nifty players, in the end they had to throw Sam Crawford to the wolves to make nice during the peace agreement.

  16. #15
    Member PickOff's Avatar
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    Re: The problem with scoring

    Interesting to note that while the Reds scored more runs than the Cardinals last year the Reds also scored 3 or LESS runs 16 more times than the Cardinals. Some will point this out to show that the Reds offense needs to focus more on Larussa style small ball.
    Thank goodness for baseball.


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