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Thread: 2006 Pythag Records

  1. #1
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    2006 Pythag Records

    I decided to keep some running data on all the MLB teams. I'm hoping to update this every week. Right now, the projected records probably won't be accurate due to the small number of games played. A few weeks from now the picture will become much clearer.

    Code:
    AL EAST		Games	Win	Loss	Pct	RS	RA	Pythag Pct	PWin	PLoss	+/-	Proj Wins	Proj Loss
    Boston		6	5	1	0.833	33	24	0.645		4	2	1	104		58
    Toronto		6	3	3	0.500	34	37	0.461		3	3	0	75		87
    Tampa Bay	6	3	3	0.500	32	43	0.365		2	4	1	59		103
    Baltimore	6	2	4	0.333	35	34	0.514		3	3	-1	83		79
    NY Yankees	6	2	4	0.333	35	23	0.687		4	2	-2	111		51
    AL CENTRAL	Games	Win	Loss	Pct	RS	RA	Pythag Pct	PWin	PLoss	+/-	Proj Wins	Proj Loss
    Cleveland	6	5	1	0.833	33	23	0.663		4	2	1	107		55
    Detroit		7	5	2	0.714	45	22	0.792		6	1	-1	128		34
    Chicago Sox	7	3	4	0.429	33	35	0.473		3	4	0	77		85
    Kansas City	5	2	3	0.400	20	30	0.319		2	3	0	52		110
    Minnesota	6	1	5	0.167	27	33	0.407		2	4	-1	66		96
    AL WEST		Games	Win	Loss	Pct	RS	RA	Pythag Pct	PWin	PLoss	+/-	Proj Wins	Proj Loss
    Oakland		7	5	2	0.714	31	32	0.485		3	4	2	79		83
    LA Angels	6	3	3	0.500	25	33	0.373		2	4	1	60		102
    Seattle		7	3	4	0.429	30	33	0.456		3	4	0	74		88
    Texas		7	2	5	0.286	27	38	0.345		2	5	0	56		106
    NL EAST		Games	Win	Loss	Pct	RS	RA	Pythag Pct	PWin	PLoss	+/-	Proj Wins	Proj Loss
    NY Mets		5	4	1	0.800	30	21	0.661		3	2	1	107		55
    Atlanta		7	3	4	0.429	53	53	0.500		4	3	-1	81		81
    Washington	7	2	5	0.286	36	44	0.407		3	4	-1	66		96
    Florida		5	1	4	0.200	21	21	0.500		3	2	-2	81		81
    Philadelphia	6	1	5	0.167	21	35	0.278		2	4	-1	45		117
    NL CENTRAL	Games	Win	Loss	Pct	RS	RA	Pythag Pct	PWin	PLoss	+/-	Proj Wins	Proj Loss
    Milwaukee	6	5	1	0.833	23	21	0.542		3	3	2	88		74
    Chicago Cubs	5	4	1	0.800	38	22	0.735		4	1	0	119		43
    Houston		7	5	2	0.714	35	36	0.487		3	4	2	79		83
    Cincinnati	6	4	2	0.667	42	47	0.448		3	3	1	73		89
    St. Louis	6	3	3	0.500	28	26	0.535		3	3	0	87		75
    Pittsburgh	8	1	7	0.125	37	50	0.363		3	5	-2	59		103
    NL WEST		Games	Win	Loss	Pct	RS	RA	Pythag Pct	PWin	PLoss	+/-	Proj Wins	Proj Loss
    Colorado	6	4	2	0.667	42	30	0.652		4	2	0	106		56
    San Francisco	6	4	2	0.667	34	36	0.473		3	3	1	77		85
    LA Dodgers	7	4	3	0.571	45	38	0.578		4	3	0	94		68
    Arizona		6	3	3	0.500	30	18	0.722		4	2	-1	117		45
    San Diego	5	1	4	0.200	19	36	0.232		1	4	0	38		124
    Last edited by paintmered; 04-10-2006 at 07:14 PM.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

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  3. #2
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    As ugly as the Reds pitching may be this season, it's not frequently going to be 16-7 ugly, as it was on Opening Day. That one game really skews their RS/RA ratio.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  4. #3
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    As ugly as the Reds pitching may be this season, it's not frequently going to be 16-7 ugly, as it was on Opening Day. That one game really skews their RS/RA ratio.
    In general, you don't have a bad run differential unless you take a fair number of ugly beatings like that.

    It's the hallmark of teams that get outscored by gobs runs over the course of the season that they suffer a large number of lopsided losses. That's certainly been the case with the Reds over the past three years. If you take away the crooked number defeats, you might have something close to a .500 club, but it's when you lose a large number of laughers, games where you're not even in the contest, that you begin to spiral well below .500.

    As for this season, in each of the past three seasons we've heard early season assurances that ugly losses won't become a regular event only to have them crop up on regular basis. At this point I'd say it's incumbent on the Reds to prove this model is different, otherwise I think you have to assume double-digit beatings will be happening with a certain amount of frequency (22 times last season, 25 times in 2004).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  5. #4
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    The ugly game syndrom is softened by the massive amount of runs the Reds scored, but one things for sure the Reds are unstable, their run diffrential is in the negative and they have a winning record.

    Scoring over 40 runs in the first 6 games is a rarity, as is giving up 47... doing both in a season is even rarer, so I liked that part myself.

  6. #5
    Member GullyFoyle's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    I was playing around with keeping track of run differential, so you can see here the last two years for the Reds in April... as mentioned above notice how the blowout losses move the Reds into positive numbers.

    Last edited by GullyFoyle; 04-11-2006 at 12:35 PM.

  7. #6
    Designated Threadkiller LincolnparkRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    Pretty exciting to see that the Cubs will win 119 games and the Tigers will win 128. Just goes to show you that sometimes a small sample will really give you junk results.
    Climbing down from the bridge, but keeping the torch lit until Dusty's fate is settled

  8. #7
    Member GullyFoyle's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    This may be obvious to most, but...

    If you think about it, most close games are going to break down somewhere close to 50/50... somewhat a matter of luck... its the ability to dish out the whooping and remove the game from the other teams reach... and to avoid them yourself, that makes for an overall winning team. And the Reds might have done some of this last week if their bullpen wasn't falling apart.

  9. #8
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    Quote Originally Posted by GullyFoyle
    This may be obvious to most, but...

    If you think about it, most close games are going to break down somewhere close to 50/50... somewhat a matter of luck... its the ability to dish out the whooping and remove the game from the other teams reach... and to avoid them yourself, that makes for an overall winning team. And the Reds might have done some of this last week if their bullpen wasn't falling apart.
    Yep, it goes back to a simple precept -- those who don't make things harder than they have to be tend to succeed.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  10. #9
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    With a 9-0 lead in the 7th, hoping the Reds can finish off a good Pythag day...

  11. #10
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    Updated 13 April 2006.

    Code:
    AL EAST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	Pythag PCT	P. Won		P. Loss		P. +/-		Proj Won	Proj Loss
    Boston		8	6	2	0.750	42	35	0.584		5		3		1		95		67
    NY Yankees	9	5	4	0.556	65	38	0.732		7		2		-2		119		43
    Toronto		8	4	4	0.500	45	46	0.490		4		4		0		79		83
    Baltimore	9	4	5	0.444	53	48	0.546		5		4		-1		88		74
    Tampa Bay	9	4	5	0.444	46	61	0.371		3		6		1		60		102
    AL CENTRAL	Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	Pythag PCT	P. Won		P. Loss		P. +/-		Proj Won	Proj Loss
    Cleveland	8	6	2	0.750	51	39	0.623		5		3		1		101		61
    Chicago Sox	9	5	4	0.556	50	47	0.529		5		4		0		86		76
    Detroit		9	5	4	0.556	57	39	0.670		6		3		-1		109		53
    Minnesota	9	4	5	0.444	48	46	0.520		5		4		-1		84		78
    Kansas City	8	2	6	0.250	35	60	0.267		2		6		0		43		119
    AL WEST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	Pythag PCT	P. Won		P. Loss		P. +/-		Proj Won	Proj Loss
    LA Angels	9	5	4	0.556	38	50	0.374		3		6		2		61		101
    Oakland		10	5	5	0.500	44	53	0.414		4		6		1		67		95
    Seattle		9	4	5	0.444	46	51	0.452		4		5		0		73		89
    Texas		10	3	7	0.300	44	51	0.431		4		6		-1		70		92
    NL EAST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	Pythag PCT	P. Won		P. Loss		P. +/-		Proj Won	Proj Loss
    NY Mets		8	7	1	0.875	53	27	0.779		6		2		1		126		36
    Atlanta		9	4	5	0.444	63	63	0.500		5		4		-1		81		81
    Philadelphia	8	2	6	0.250	31	45	0.332		3		5		-1		54		108
    Florida		8	2	6	0.250	35	39	0.450		4		4		-2		73		89
    Washington	10	2	8	0.200	42	67	0.295		3		7		-1		48		114
    NL CENTRAL	Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	Pythag PCT	P. Won		P. Loss		P. +/-		Proj Won	Proj Loss
    Milwaukee	9	6	3	0.667	34	38	0.448		4		5		2		73		89
    Cincinnati	9	6	3	0.667	60	56	0.532		5		4		1		86		76
    Houston		7	5	2	0.714	35	36	0.487		3		4		2		79		83
    Chicago Cubs	8	5	3	0.625	47	40	0.575		5		3		0		93		69
    St. Louis	9	5	4	0.556	45	37	0.591		5		4		0		96		66
    Pittsburgh	11	3	8	0.273	58	74	0.388		4		7		-1		63		99
    NL WEST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	Pythag PCT	P. Won		P. Loss		P. +/-		Proj Won	Proj Loss
    San Francisco	6	4	2	0.667	34	36	0.473		3		3		1		77		85
    Colorado	8	5	3	0.625	52	40	0.620		5		3		0		100		62
    LA Dodgers	10	5	5	0.500	69	59	0.573		6		4		-1		93		69
    Arizona		8	4	4	0.500	40	28	0.661		5		3		-1		107		55
    San Diego	8	3	5	0.375	37	50	0.363		3		5		0		59		103
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  12. #11
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    Updated 17 April 2006

    Code:
    AL EAST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	P. PCT		P. Won	P. Loss		 +/-	Proj Won	Proj Loss
    Boston		12	8	4	0.667	53	49	0.537		6	6		2	87		75
    Baltimore	13	7	6	0.538	71	69	0.513		7	6		0	83		79
    Tampa Bay	13	7	6	0.538	73	77	0.475		6	7		1	77		85
    NY Yankees	12	6	6	0.500	80	52	0.691		8	4		-2	112		50
    Toronto		12	6	6	0.500	72	69	0.520		6	6		0	84		78
    AL CENTRAL	Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	P. PCT		P. Won	P. Loss		 +/-	Proj Won	Proj Loss
    Chicago Sox	12	7	5	0.583	67	66	0.507		6	6		1	82		80
    Cleveland	12	7	5	0.583	64	56	0.562		7	5		0	91		71
    Detroit		12	7	5	0.583	65	47	0.647		8	4		-1	105		57
    Minnesota	12	6	6	0.500	62	61	0.508		6	6		0	82		80
    Kansas City	11	2	9	0.182	45	82	0.246		3	8		-1	40		122
    AL WEST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	P. PCT		P. Won	P. Loss		 +/-	Proj Won	Proj Loss
    LA Angels	12	6	6	0.500	54	62	0.436		5	7		1	71		91
    Oakland		13	6	7	0.462	55	68	0.402		5	8		1	65		97
    Seattle		13	6	7	0.462	61	61	0.500		7	6		-1	81		81
    Texas		13	5	8	0.385	59	62	0.477		6	7		-1	77		85
    NL EAST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	P. PCT		P. Won	P. Loss		 +/-	Proj Won	Proj Loss
    NY Mets		11	9	2	0.818	68	41	0.720		8	3		1	117		45
    Atlanta		13	6	7	0.462	79	78	0.506		7	6		-1	82		80
    Philadelphia	12	5	7	0.417	55	69	0.396		5	7		0	64		98
    Washington	13	4	9	0.308	54	78	0.335		4	9		0	54		108
    Florida		11	3	8	0.273	46	51	0.452		5	6		-2	73		89
    NL CENTRAL	Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	P. PCT		P. Won	P. Loss		 +/-	Proj Won	Proj Loss
    Houston		12	8	4	0.667	65	51	0.611		7	5		1	99		63
    Chicago Cubs	11	7	4	0.636	63	51	0.598		7	4		0	97		65
    Milwaukee	12	7	5	0.583	48	53	0.454		5	7		2	74		88
    Cincinnati	12	7	5	0.583	71	73	0.487		6	6		1	79		83
    St. Louis	12	7	5	0.583	62	48	0.617		7	5		0	100		62
    Pittsburgh	14	4	10	0.286	69	90	0.378		5	9		-1	61		101
    NL WEST		Games	Won	Loss	PCT	RS	RA	P. PCT		P. Won	P. Loss		 +/-	Proj Won	Proj Loss
    San Francisco	11	7	4	0.636	44	51	0.431		5	6		2	70		92
    Colorado	12	7	5	0.583	75	60	0.603		7	5		0	98		64
    LA Dodgers	13	6	7	0.462	73	64	0.561		7	6		-1	91		71
    Arizona		12	5	7	0.417	53	52	0.509		6	6		-1	82		80
    San Diego	11	4	7	0.364	45	60	0.369		4	7		0	60		102
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  13. #12
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    105 wins for Detroit.

    I think there's still room on the bandwagon...
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  14. #13
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    They're already printing playoff tickets here in Detroit.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  15. #14
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    I was more impressed with Colorado. Wow- 98 wins in THAT ball park.

    They'd be the first team in major league history to have 100 wins and a pitching staff last in the league.

    Rox Rock!
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  16. #15
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Pythag Records

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    They're already printing playoff tickets here in Detroit.
    Pistons & Red Wings don't count
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.


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