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Thread: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

  1. #31
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    I remember that the predraft reports on Wood said that he touched higher velocity closer to the draft -- up to 94-95. That may have been a fast gun, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't get over 90 as the season goes on.
    I think it's a GREAT sign that he's getting guys out, and striking out so many hitters, without a lot of velocity. That's my concern about Homer. He's already throwing mid-90s consistently and still getting hit in single-A.
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  3. #32
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    Did anyone see if his fastball was moving well?
    Has fastball had a little bit of cut on it. He definitly was throwing a two-seamer yesterday.

    As far as his curve goes: I feel he can develop that into a plus pitch. Right now his change projects to be plus pitch, if it isn't there already, that is really going to help along his fastball and ability to mix in his developing curve.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 04-12-2006 at 10:17 PM.

  4. #33
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I think it's a GREAT sign that he's getting guys out, and striking out so many hitters, without a lot of velocity. That's my concern about Homer. He's already throwing mid-90s consistently and still getting hit in single-A.
    That is because he doesn't throw his breaking ball with enough consistancy and his changeup is still not developed. Considering that you just can't make it on mid-90's heaters(even with the quick arm release Bailey has), Homer will not do overly well to he finds consistancy.

    I personally feel high A is a good place for Bailey to build up his value this year. He should get more comfortable as he settles in that warm Florida sun. Considering he is King 1 per inning so far without a consistant breaking ball, that portends to better things.............however:
    The Reds have 5 pitching prospects that I am really interested in the lower minors:
    1.Bailey
    2.Wood
    3.Ward
    4.Lecure
    5.Val
    Some of these guys may turn out to be future MLB starters. Some of them won't and dealing them at the right time is critical. I think if Bailey puts up high number of K's in A+ along with a 3-3.50ERA, his value will rocket as I said on these boards last year. But to do that, he needs to cut out the walks. SO FAR, evidence is mounting that he has cured, or is curing that problem. Thus, the value will tremendously rise as I suspect his starts will become more refined as the season forges on piling up K's.

    Krivsky should move Bailey this winter. IMO Bailey's desire's and makeup aren't what I consider valueable. He has some serious issues about what it takes to improve and fullfill his immense physical gifts. I would take a shot on aquiring another modestly older arm, but one that has had success at the major league level that is a 2. My opinion is Bailey will most likely quit rather than succeed.

    Homer's the first kicked off the island.

  5. #34
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Why on earth would you give up on a pitcher. I say ride it out

  6. #35
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3
    Why on earth would you give up on a pitcher. I say ride it out
    There's a difference between giving up on a pitcher and cashing in on one whose trade value may be a lot higher than his actual value (which is what Aronchis is suggesting). This same argument was made concerning Ty Howington once upon a time and, without question, trading him proved to be the wiser (though unrealized) course of action.

    As an aside, in looking over the top 15 picks from the 1990-1999 drafts, two things jumped out at me about the HS pitchers. One was the well-worn topic of how infrequently they ever materialize into something useful for the team that drafts them. The other was that of all the prep arms who didn't make it, none were moved for any talent of consequence. I'm talking about a big, fat zero on that front.

    It's curious because college arms, prep players and college players from the top 15 in the '90s all managed to find their way into multiple trades of consequence. It would seem that organizations are unwilling to trade highly drafted prep arms when their value is high, hang onto them hoping for a rebound when their value drops and then can't get anything for them when their value hits nil. The interesting part in there is that if the industry treats these prep arms with such reverence then a team should be able to cash one in for an extremely handsome return.
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  7. #36
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    There's a difference between giving up on a pitcher and cashing in on one whose trade value may be a lot higher than his actual value (which is what Aronchis is suggesting). This same argument was made concerning Ty Howington once upon a time and, without question, trading him proved to be the wiser (though unrealized) course of action.

    As an aside, in looking over the top 15 picks from the 1990-1999 drafts, two things jumped out at me about the HS pitchers. One was the well-worn topic of how infrequently they ever materialize into something useful for the team that drafts them. The other was that of all the prep arms who didn't make it, none were moved for any talent of consequence. I'm talking about a big, fat zero on that front.

    It's curious because college arms, prep players and college players from the top 15 in the '90s all managed to find their way into multiple trades of consequence. It would seem that organizations are unwilling to trade highly drafted prep arms when their value is high, hang onto them hoping for a rebound when their value drops and then can't get anything for them when their value hits nil. The interesting part in there is that if the industry treats these prep arms with such reverence then a team should be able to cash one in for an extremely handsome return.
    Very interesting post, M2.

    Going forward with this, wouldn't this make establishing a value for these players difficult? Maybe none of those players were traded because no one thought they could get fair value for those players, both when the teams that drafted them put a value on them for trade, and after they seemingly failed to live up to the original value (basically overvaluing those players in both instances). I guess what I'm trying to say is maybe the reason none of those players were traded originally was because the drafting team was asking for the stars and the moon in return for them, and then after their value fell, they felt they were better off praying that the player would rebound in some way, making them more valuable than the dreck of players that they were being offered in return for them after their value fell.
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  8. #37
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Going back for a minute to Wood's velocity - I am not too concerned about it even if it is the high 80's neighborhood. A lefty with good movement and a good offspeed can be a dominant big league starter. See Sid Fernandez in the mid to late 80's as Exhibit "A"
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader
    Very interesting post, M2.

    Going forward with this, wouldn't this make establishing a value for these players difficult? Maybe none of those players were traded because no one thought they could get fair value for those players, both when the teams that drafted them put a value on them for trade, and after they seemingly failed to live up to the original value (basically overvaluing those players in both instances). I guess what I'm trying to say is maybe the reason none of those players were traded originally was because the drafting team was asking for the stars and the moon in return for them, and then after their value fell, they felt they were better off praying that the player would rebound in some way, making them more valuable than the dreck of players that they were being offered in return for them after their value fell.
    I think you have to apply a certain amount of realpolitik. If you're going to trade a blue chip prospect for major league talent, chances are it will be for distressed inventory (e.g. a major leaguer who is either getting too costly or too close to free agency for his current team). My guess is teams tend to not make those deals because they're risk averse. They either don't want to spend the money or don't want to trade a top prospect for a short window. The Cardinals have been a notable exception, constantly pawning off top prospects for distressed inventory that they then keep around.

    The Reds can't afford to make a habit of such a practice at this moment, but a one-time deal might make some sense.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I think you have to apply a certain amount of realpolitik. If you're going to trade a blue chip prospect for major league talent, chances are it will be for distressed inventory (e.g. a major leaguer who is either getting too costly or too close to free agency for his current team). My guess is teams tend to not make those deals because they're risk averse. They either don't want to spend the money or don't want to trade a top prospect for a short window. The Cardinals have been a notable exception, constantly pawning off top prospects for distressed inventory that they then keep around.

    The Reds can't afford to make a habit of such a practice at this moment, but a one-time deal might make some sense.
    I think the A's have done this a couple times as well, although moreso with position players (Hinske, Griffin, etc) than with starting pitchers (Bonderman). Although, in the Reds defense, it's much easier to trade top pitching prospects when you've got a solid rotation in the majors, and other pitching prospects of worth in the minors, which obviously, for a long period of time, the Reds had neither of.


    The Bonderman trade is interesting to use as a measure. The Yankees got Jeff Weaver from Detroit in a three-team trade that saw four major prospects change addresses. Detroit got Carlos Pena, Franklyn German and Bonderman from Oakland, which received Ted Lilly, John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold from New York.


    So, at least using that measure, if you get a third party to take that "distressed inventory" player you mention, the team dealing the H.S. first round pick SP is capable of getting a good deal of minor league talent along with an established major league player. Of course, it helps if you have other minor league talent to package with that first round HS SP, which the Reds don't.
    Last edited by Red Leader; 04-13-2006 at 01:04 PM.
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  11. #40
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    I guess what Im really saying is, I have no problem with trading prospect pitchers, just not our top 5 and for the love of God of all the pitchers we got not Bailey. Does anyone remember the spring training performance

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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3
    I guess what Im really saying is, I have no problem with trading prospect pitchers, just not our top 5 and for the love of God of all the pitchers we got not Bailey. Does anyone remember the spring training performance
    Well, it was sure a good thing the Reds didn't trade Ty Howington, Ricardo Aramboles, Dustin Moseley, Chris Gruler, Bobby Basham, Ryan Wagner and Richie Gardner while they were still highly-coveted top five prospects inside the organization. I mean imagine the hole the Reds would be in if they had done that instead of holding onto to their best young arms?
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  13. #42
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Also, for those interested, I heard the other day that Travis Wood has been instructed to work on his curve ball, so he's going to throw that pitch a lot more often than he normally would to get more feel for it and develop it further. Also has been instructed to not "air it out" right away, which is why his velocity peaked at 88mph the other night. Was told that his velocity can reach 94-95 and if he doesn't hit that mark for the next 4-5 starts, not to worry, he's not injured, he's just "pacing himself" because of instructions to do so.
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  14. #43
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader
    Also, for those interested, I heard the other day that Travis Wood has been instructed to work on his curve ball, so he's going to throw that pitch a lot more often than he normally would to get more feel for it and develop it further. Also has been instructed to not "air it out" right away, which is why his velocity peaked at 88mph the other night. Was told that his velocity can reach 94-95 and if he doesn't hit that mark for the next 4-5 starts, not to worry, he's not injured, he's just "pacing himself" because of instructions to do so.
    That makes sense. He doesn't need to prove he can crank up the heat. I think it's encouraging that the Reds are willing to take a measured approach to a kid like Wood, to actually teach him instead of feeling compelled to push him as far as his stuff will carry him.
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  15. #44
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    it's encouraging that the Reds are willing to take a measured approach to a kid like Wood, to actually teach him instead of feeling compelled to push him as far as his stuff will carry him.
    Here's a question about development. How much is the teacher, and how much is the learner? For sure, having good instruction is crucial. But what's that saying, "when you are ready to be taught, a teacher will appear..."? Something like that....

    In Wood's case, I sense the kid not only has the physical stuff, but the aptitude to pitch. It appears he recognizes what an improved curve ball will do to help him cripple hitters. He's already cleared an important first hurdle -- knowing he can succeed as a pro. Based on that, he will be willing to sacrifice some at-bats in the interest of learning his curve. It may hurt his numbers here and there, but in the long run he'll be better. No doubt in my mind that some pitchers would take the "individualized program" handed to them by the organization and fight it every time they go to the hill because, for one reason or the other, they're just not ready to change anything. I think we have a tendency to blame the instruction/the organization all the time, where it's really a two-way street.

    I am also encoraged that Bailey may be working hard on throwing strikes. I have no idea what he's been told to work on, but fewer BBs is a great place to start in 2006.
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  16. #45
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey and Travis Wood pitching tonight

    http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...604140352/1071

    Browning and Wood: Striking similarities

    BY KEVIN KELLY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

    DAYTON - Tom Browning struck out more batters in 1986 than any other Red on the pitching staff that season.

    It stands as the last time a left-handed pitcher drafted and developed by the Reds led the team in that category.

    Travis Wood is a ways from pitching in the major leagues, but 16 games into his pro career, the Reds' second-round draft pick last year already has posted some impressive strikeout totals.

    Entering Thursday, the Single-A Dayton pitcher was tied for the Midwest League lead with 15 strikeouts in 82/3 innings. In 571/3 innings overall in the minors, Wood is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA and has struck out 82 batters while walking only 22.

    "You never can expect strikeouts," said Wood, a 19-year-old from Alexander, Ark. "You just expect to have a good game and do your best."

    In his second start this season, against Lansing on Tuesday at Fifth Third Field in Dayton, Wood allowed four doubles over five scoreless innings in a 2-1 win.

    His struck out 10 and walked one.

    "I was impressed with the way he pitched inside," Dayton manager Billy Gardner said afterward. "He went inside for effect, which helped his changeup. His changeup had real good deception, and it makes his fastball better."

    Baseball America rated Wood as the third-best prospect in the Reds' farm system after a solid debut in rookie ball last season.

    In 14 appearances with the Gulf Coast League Reds and Billings Mustangs, Wood went 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 67 strikeouts to just 20 walks in 482/3 innings.

    Opponents batted .166 against him.

    "Last year definitely gave me the confidence to know what I can do and what my limits are," Wood said. "I know I can compete out there."

    Wood throws a two-seam and four-seam fastball that tops out in the low 90s. He also throws a changeup and a curveball.

    "The curveball is the pitch that has needed the most work from high school to last year," Wood said. "I need to keep working on all my pitches but emphasizing the curveball."
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