it worked for Goebbels.Originally Posted by M2
It's just a joke
it worked for Goebbels.
It's just a joke
And while he was posting a 4.36 ERA, a park-adjusted league average for that season was 4.01.
That's a pretty below average pitcher.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
If all 5 members of the Reds rotation ended up with a 4.01 ERA I'd say the Reds will be making the playoffs. I'd also say all would end up with 15+ wins.
And at his best Paul Wilson wasn't good enough to be one of them. That's the point here, that he never was up to being that average guy around whom you can build a playoff rotation.
He's a below average guy, one who never even ate innings all that well. That's the kind of guy a team with designs on winning needs to replace.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Those comps are with pitchers who produced the same amount of innings as he did and starts, they are not cross comparisons.With the way managers situationally(if thats a word) use the BP you cannot just lump their stats in there with league averages and compare them to starting pitchers averages.
But here are his comps for worst ERA vs the league from 2000-2005, Under 200 games started, between 700-1300 IP.
Bolded for the taste of flavor country.
Code:CAREER 2000-2005 ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE GS IP 1 Jose Lima -1.46 5.92 4.46 142 842.2 2 Scott Elarton -1.05 5.52 4.47 124 717.1 3 Pedro Astacio -.81 5.17 4.36 119 729.2 4 Jason Jennings -.78 5.02 4.24 124 729 5 Shawn Estes -.64 4.97 4.34 169 988 6 Ismael Valdes -.54 4.99 4.45 138 802.1 7 Joe Kennedy -.50 4.91 4.41 123 763 8 Eric Milton -.49 4.98 4.49 167 996 9 Tanyon Sturtze -.49 5.01 4.53 78 732.1 10 Jamey Wright -.47 4.82 4.35 125 764 11 Joe Mays -.40 4.96 4.55 126 775.1 12 Scott Schoeneweis -.40 5.00 4.60 93 727.2 13 Ryan Dempster -.36 4.71 4.35 126 875 14 Paul Wilson -.36 4.77 4.41 127 792.2 15 Mike Maroth -.32 4.82 4.50 121 748 16 Brett Tomko -.30 4.61 4.31 137 918.2 17 Glendon Rusch -.25 4.58 4.33 151 978.2 18 Jason Johnson -.23 4.76 4.54 165 1031.1 19 Kyle Lohse -.22 4.72 4.50 144 844.2 20 Steve Sparks -.22 4.74 4.52 96 752.2
Paul Wilson was 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 16 home starts in 2004 and had 16 quality starts in total. His 11-6 record would have been better if not for 6 blown saves. A lot of teams had interest in signing Wilson after this "below average season." I'm not saying his career in total has been very good - it hasn't been - but overall Wilson pitched well in 2004.
You've been shown the numbers. He had a 4.36 ERA and 4.01 was the GAB-adjusted league average. That is NOT a good season. It's not awful either, just kind of blah.
And a lot of folks here were all for trading Wilson during the 2004 season to another club with "interest" in him, especially when he had better numbers early in the season. They were also all for letting another interested club sign Wilson and taking two draft picks in compensation.
When you determine what counted for average in 2004 you quickly learn that Wilson was no better that season than he was in 2003 or 2002 or 2001. In fact, he was amazingly consistent. He had the same below average season four years in row.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
OK, I agree that Paul Wilson over the course of his career has been below average (not horible). But it WAS stated that at his best he was still below average and that is simply not true. In 2000 with 11 games and 7 starts he had a 3.35 ERA. So while that is only 7 game starts there is your "at his best".
Are the D-Rays getting a new catcher?
At 92% of an average pitcher...would 46% of Wilson's game be mental...using the Yogi formulary?Meanwhile if Paul Wilson returned to 100% of what he was in 2001-2004 he'd still only be 92% of an average pitcher.
Last edited by doug flynn; 04-17-2006 at 09:02 AM.
Do you really want to hang any sort of a hat on what the guy did in a short, most September stint in 2000?
Because I'll go on record as saying that small sample was as meaningless as Luke Hudson's 2004 mirage. Wilson also had a 4.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 83 AAA IP in 2000.
Given a full time job in 2001-2004, the real Paul Wilson stood up and if you think he'd have been able to stretch out his 2000 anomaly over the course of a full season then I've got some swampland on the moon that might interest you.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Yes, and Wilson had a 3.32 at GAB in 16 starts (well above the league adjusted average of 4.01 for GAB). A couple of bad starts at the end of the year after the Reds were already out of it did increase his overall ERA, but he pitched well above abverage for most of the year when it counted.
You're failing to understand how a park-adjusted league average works. The league-adjusted average I provided is based on what a pitcher who threw half his games in the GAB that season would have posted. That 4.01 represents what an average pitcher getting Paul Wilson's workload should have achieved. He posted a 4.36.
Plus, that Wilson did all right in the elephant grass the Reds grew at the GAB in 2004 and got pounded elsewhere, doesn't really argue in favor of him being a good pitcher. Mostly he was a guy who needed a fairly extreme gimmick in order to be effective. Also, if you look at his monthly numbers, what he mostly did in 2004 is have a good May and then his numbers tumbled fairly steadily after that. His ERA for each month after May that season:
June - 4.45
July - 4.24
August - 11.20
September - 4.50
His April ERA was 4.50.
Wilson was pretty much the opposite of what you positioned him as being in 2004. He's a guy that generally pitched poorly and who didn't deliver much of anything when it really mattered.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
So if Wilson ranked 53rd out of starters in with a 4.38 ERA, but the adjusted league average ERA was 4.01, wouldn't it follow that the average ERA for starters was higher than the average ERA for all pitchers? I don't really care about the Wilson argument and I'm not trying to weigh in on this, but this number made me curious. I know alot of starters get hurt or yanked from the rotation, so there probably werent 150 guys with 150+ IP in 2004. However I'm guessing if Wilson was 53rd in ERA he would still have ranked in the top half of those that did throw 150 innings.
So now that I'm curious, could anyone show some stats of league average ERA vs. average ERA of starters for the past few seasons? You could filter to include only those with 150+ IP, but that would include only the guys who were good enough to make it that long in the rotation. Is there a better way to include only the stats of starters?
Here's 2004 and 5
Code:SEASON 2004 INNINGS PITCHED >= 150 GAMES STARTED >= 20 ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP GS 1 Jake Peavy 2.04 2.27 4.31 166.1 27 2 Johan Santana 2.03 2.61 4.64 228 34 3 Randy Johnson 1.71 2.60 4.31 245.2 35 4 Ben Sheets 1.62 2.70 4.31 237 34 5 Carlos Zambrano 1.57 2.75 4.31 209.2 31 6 Curt Schilling 1.38 3.26 4.64 226.2 32 7 Roger Clemens 1.33 2.98 4.31 214.1 33 8 Oliver Perez 1.33 2.98 4.31 196 30 9 Carl Pavano 1.32 3.00 4.31 222.1 31 10 Jake Westbrook 1.26 3.38 4.64 215.2 30 11 Brad Radke 1.15 3.48 4.64 219.2 34 12 Jason Schmidt 1.11 3.20 4.31 225 32 13 Tim Hudson 1.11 3.53 4.64 188.2 27 14 Al Leiter 1.10 3.21 4.31 173.2 30 15 Odalis Perez 1.06 3.25 4.31 196.1 31 16 Rodrigo Lopez 1.05 3.59 4.64 170.2 23 17 Jaret Wright 1.03 3.28 4.31 186.1 32 18 Doug Davis 0.93 3.39 4.31 207.1 34 19 Chris Carpenter 0.85 3.46 4.31 182 28 20 Freddy Garcia 0.82 3.81 4.64 210 31 21 Roy Oswalt 0.82 3.49 4.31 237 35 22 Mark Buehrle 0.75 3.89 4.64 245.1 35 23 Pedro Martinez 0.74 3.90 4.64 217 33 24 Brandon Webb 0.72 3.59 4.31 208 35 25 Livan Hernandez 0.71 3.60 4.31 255 35 26 Tom Glavine 0.71 3.60 4.31 212.1 33 27 Kelvim Escobar 0.71 3.93 4.64 208.1 33 28 Joe Kennedy 0.65 3.66 4.31 162.1 27 29 Rich Harden 0.65 3.99 4.64 189.2 31 30 Matt Clement 0.63 3.68 4.31 181 30 31 Bronson Arroyo 0.61 4.03 4.64 178.2 29 32 Jason Marquis 0.60 3.71 4.31 201.1 32 33 John Thomson 0.59 3.72 4.31 198.1 33 34 David Wells 0.59 3.73 4.31 195.2 31 35 Ted Lilly 0.58 4.06 4.64 197.1 32 36 Josh Beckett 0.52 3.79 4.31 156.2 26 37 C.C. Sabathia 0.52 4.12 4.64 188 30 38 Ryan Drese 0.43 4.20 4.64 207.2 33 39 Carlos Silva 0.43 4.21 4.64 203 33 40 Mike Maroth 0.32 4.31 4.64 217 33 41 Steve Trachsel 0.32 4.00 4.31 202.2 33 42 Jon Lieber 0.31 4.33 4.64 176.2 27 43 Jeff Weaver 0.31 4.01 4.31 220 34 44 Dontrelle Willis 0.29 4.02 4.31 197 32 45 Greg Maddux 0.29 4.02 4.31 212.2 33 46 Brett Tomko 0.28 4.04 4.31 194 31 47 Jose Lima 0.25 4.07 4.31 170.1 24 48 Mark Mulder 0.21 4.43 4.64 225.2 33 49 Brian Lawrence 0.19 4.12 4.31 203 34 50 Russ Ortiz 0.18 4.13 4.31 204.2 34 51 Barry Zito 0.16 4.48 4.64 213 34 52 Jeff Suppan 0.15 4.16 4.31 188 31 53 Woody Williams 0.14 4.18 4.31 189.2 31 54 Mike Mussina 0.05 4.59 4.64 164.2 27 55 Mike Hampton 0.03 4.28 4.31 172.1 29 56 Kris Benson 0.00 4.31 4.31 200.1 31 57 John Lackey -.04 4.67 4.64 198.1 32 58 Paul Wilson -.05 4.36 4.31 183.2 29 59 Mark Redman -.08 4.71 4.64 191 32 60 Kenny Rogers -.13 4.76 4.64 211.2 35 61 Miguel Batista -.17 4.80 4.64 198.2 31 62 Mark Hendrickson -.17 4.81 4.64 183.1 30 63 Tim Wakefield -.24 4.87 4.64 188.1 30 64 Jeremy Bonderman -.25 4.89 4.64 184 32 65 Jon Garland -.26 4.89 4.64 217 33 66 Nate Robertson -.26 4.90 4.64 196.2 32 67 Ryan Franklin -.26 4.90 4.64 200.1 32 68 Javier Vazquez -.27 4.91 4.64 198 32 69 Adam Eaton -.29 4.61 4.31 199.1 33 70 Josh Fogg -.33 4.64 4.31 178.1 32 71 Bartolo Colon -.37 5.01 4.64 208.1 34 72 Kazuhisa Ishii -.40 4.71 4.31 172 31 73 Matt Morris -.41 4.72 4.31 202 32 74 Kirk Rueter -.41 4.73 4.31 190.1 33 75 Eric Milton -.43 4.75 4.31 201 34 76 Jason Johnson -.49 5.13 4.64 196.2 33 77 Aaron Harang -.55 4.86 4.31 161 28 78 Jamie Moyer -.58 5.21 4.64 202 33 79 Cory Lidle -.58 4.90 4.31 211.1 34 80 Victor Santos -.65 4.97 4.31 154 28 81 Sidney Ponson -.66 5.30 4.64 215.2 33 82 Kyle Lohse -.70 5.34 4.64 194 34 83 Derek Lowe -.78 5.42 4.64 182.2 33 84 Cliff Lee -.79 5.43 4.64 179 33 85 Jose Contreras -.86 5.50 4.64 170.1 31 86 Ismael Valdes -.87 5.19 4.31 170 31 87 Darrell May -.98 5.61 4.64 186 31 88 Brian Anderson -1.00 5.64 4.64 166 26 89 Esteban Loaiza -1.07 5.70 4.64 183 27 90 Jason Jennings -1.19 5.51 4.31 201 33 91 Brett Myers -1.21 5.52 4.31 176 31 92 Scott Elarton -1.35 5.90 4.55 158.2 29 93 Shawn Estes -1.52 5.84 4.31 202 34 94 Jose Acevedo -1.62 5.94 4.31 157.2 27 SEASON 2005 INNINGS PITCHED >= 150 GAMES STARTED >= 20 ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP GS 1 Roger Clemens 2.36 1.87 4.23 211.1 32 2 Andy Pettitte 1.84 2.39 4.23 222.1 33 3 Dontrelle Willis 1.60 2.63 4.23 236.1 34 4 Kevin Millwood 1.50 2.86 4.36 192 30 5 Johan Santana 1.49 2.87 4.36 231.2 33 6 Pedro Martinez 1.41 2.82 4.23 217 31 7 Chris Carpenter 1.40 2.83 4.23 241.2 33 8 Jake Peavy 1.35 2.88 4.23 203 30 9 Roy Oswalt 1.29 2.94 4.23 241.2 35 10 Mark Buehrle 1.24 3.12 4.36 236.2 33 11 John Smoltz 1.17 3.06 4.23 229.2 33 12 Jarrod Washburn 1.16 3.20 4.36 177.1 29 13 John Patterson 1.10 3.13 4.23 198.1 31 14 Carlos Zambrano 0.97 3.26 4.23 223.1 33 15 Carlos Silva 0.92 3.44 4.36 188.1 27 16 John Lackey 0.92 3.44 4.36 209 33 17 Kenny Rogers 0.91 3.46 4.36 195.1 30 18 Ben Sheets 0.90 3.33 4.23 156.2 22 19 Bartolo Colon 0.89 3.48 4.36 222.2 33 20 Jon Garland 0.86 3.50 4.36 221 32 21 Shawn Chacon 0.86 3.44 4.30 151.2 24 22 Josh Beckett 0.85 3.38 4.23 178.2 29 23 Joe Blanton 0.83 3.53 4.36 201.1 33 24 A.J. Burnett 0.78 3.44 4.23 209 32 25 Jose Contreras 0.76 3.61 4.36 204.2 32 26 Tim Hudson 0.71 3.52 4.23 192 29 27 Tom Glavine 0.69 3.53 4.23 211.1 33 28 Brandon Webb 0.69 3.54 4.23 229 33 29 Jeff Suppan 0.66 3.57 4.23 194.1 32 30 Josh Towers 0.65 3.71 4.36 208.2 33 31 Gustavo Chacin 0.64 3.72 4.36 203 34 32 Danny Haren 0.63 3.73 4.36 217 34 33 Derek Lowe 0.62 3.61 4.23 222 35 34 Paul Byrd 0.62 3.74 4.36 204.1 31 35 Scott Kazmir 0.59 3.77 4.36 186 32 36 Mark Mulder 0.59 3.64 4.23 205 32 37 Cliff Lee 0.57 3.79 4.36 202 32 38 Randy Johnson 0.57 3.79 4.36 225.2 34 39 Mark Prior 0.56 3.67 4.23 166.2 27 40 Bruce Chen 0.53 3.83 4.36 197.1 32 41 Brett Myers 0.51 3.72 4.23 215.1 34 42 Barry Zito 0.50 3.86 4.36 228.1 35 43 Freddy Garcia 0.49 3.87 4.36 228 33 44 Esteban Loaiza 0.46 3.77 4.23 217 34 45 Noah Lowry 0.45 3.78 4.23 204.2 33 46 Aaron Harang 0.40 3.83 4.23 211.2 32 47 Doug Davis 0.39 3.84 4.23 222.2 35 48 C.C. Sabathia 0.33 4.03 4.36 196.2 31 49 Brad Penny 0.33 3.90 4.23 175.1 29 50 Brad Radke 0.32 4.04 4.36 200.2 31 51 Livan Hernandez 0.25 3.98 4.23 246.1 35 52 Chris Capuano 0.24 3.99 4.23 219 35 53 Tim Wakefield 0.21 4.15 4.36 225.1 33 54 Kirk Saarloos 0.19 4.17 4.36 159.2 27 55 Tomo Ohka 0.19 4.04 4.23 180.1 29 56 Kyle Lohse 0.18 4.18 4.36 178.2 30 57 Matt Morris 0.12 4.11 4.23 192.2 31 58 Kris Benson 0.10 4.13 4.23 174.1 28 59 Jason Marquis 0.10 4.13 4.23 207 32 60 Chris Young 0.10 4.26 4.36 164.2 31 61 Jamie Moyer 0.09 4.28 4.36 200 32 62 Victor Zambrano 0.06 4.17 4.23 166.1 27 63 Jon Lieber 0.02 4.20 4.23 218.1 35 64 Brandon Claussen 0.02 4.21 4.23 166.2 29 65 Jeff Weaver 0.01 4.22 4.23 224 34 66 Greg Maddux -.01 4.24 4.23 225 35 67 Mike Mussina -.05 4.41 4.36 179.2 30 68 David Wells -.09 4.45 4.36 184 30 69 Nate Robertson -.12 4.48 4.36 196.2 32 70 Jake Westbrook -.12 4.49 4.36 210.2 34 71 Bronson Arroyo -.15 4.51 4.36 205.1 32 72 Daniel Cabrera -.16 4.52 4.36 161.1 29 73 Jason Schmidt -.17 4.40 4.23 172 29 74 Jason Johnson -.18 4.54 4.36 210 33 75 Javier Vazquez -.19 4.42 4.23 215.2 33 76 Matt Clement -.21 4.57 4.36 191 32 77 Jeremy Bonderman -.21 4.57 4.36 189 29 78 Scott Elarton -.25 4.61 4.36 181.2 31 79 Brett Tomko -.25 4.48 4.23 190.2 30 80 Cory Lidle -.30 4.53 4.23 184.2 31 81 Brian Moehler -.32 4.55 4.23 158.1 25 82 Mike Maroth -.38 4.74 4.36 209 34 83 Brad Halsey -.38 4.61 4.23 160 26 84 Horacio Ramirez -.40 4.63 4.23 202.1 32 85 Rodrigo Lopez -.54 4.90 4.36 209.1 35 86 Casey Fossum -.56 4.92 4.36 162.2 25 87 Brian Lawrence -.60 4.83 4.23 195.2 33 88 Woody Williams -.62 4.85 4.23 159.2 28 89 Mark Redman -.67 4.90 4.23 178.1 30 90 Ryan Franklin -.74 5.10 4.36 190.2 30 91 Josh Fogg -.82 5.05 4.23 169.1 28 92 Kip Wells -.86 5.09 4.23 182 33 93 Ramon Ortiz -1.13 5.36 4.23 171.1 30 94 Runelvys Hernandez -1.16 5.52 4.36 159.2 29 95 Jamey Wright -1.23 5.46 4.23 171.1 27 96 Doug Waechter -1.26 5.62 4.36 157 25 97 Joel Pineiro -1.26 5.62 4.36 189 30 98 Joe Mays -1.29 5.65 4.36 156 26 99 Chan Ho Park -1.41 5.74 4.32 155.1 29 100 Zack Greinke -1.44 5.80 4.36 183 33 101 Jeff Francis -1.45 5.68 4.23 183.2 33 102 Mark Hendrickson -1.54 5.90 4.36 178.1 31 103 Joe Kennedy -1.73 6.01 4.28 152.2 24 104 Eric Milton -2.24 6.47 4.23 186.1 34 105 Jose Lima -2.63 6.99 4.36 168.2 32
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