Albert Pujols vs. Cincy: The Analysis (wow, this is ugly and amazing)

[Cyclone792]

Well, I was planning on starting this topic anyway before today's game, but now it's just even more fitting given what Prince Albert did to us this afternoon with his three home runs. I've already made a quick comparison of what Jeff Bagwell has done to the Reds in his career, and it's fitting to also take a look at what Albert Pujols has done to us so far in his brilliant career.

First, I'll make a quick comparison of Pujols' early start to his career using Win Shares:

Player          Peak WS    WS/162    ~OPS+

Jimmie Foxx       183      39.32      184    
Albert Pujols     180      36.91      169

Foxx Peak = 1929, 1930, 1932, 1933 and 1938
Pujols Peak = 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005

Considering that Albert's peak consists entirely of his first five seasons, and that Albert's 2006 season will likely be greater than his his "worst" season of 2001, the chances are pretty darn good that Pujols will inevitably have a greater peak than the great Jimmie Foxx. Already through five seasons, he's right over Foxx's shoulder and looking to pass him.

Now let's take a look at how Pujols has fared vs. the Reds:

Albert Pujols Splits
              AB    R    H    2B   3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO   HBP   AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS

vs. Reds     353   89   135   31    0    28    81    39    26    5   .382  .446  .708  1.155
vs. Others  2642  555	861  197   11   181   557   375   323	39   .326  .414  .614  1.028

For a point of reference here, just know that the league average OPS for Pujols' career is ~.764, and here's how Pujols' stat splits vs. the Reds shape up to a few high-powered offensive seasons in the past by some legendary hitters in a similar offensive environment that Pujols has played in:

• Babe Ruth's best single season OPS was 1.382 in 1921 (league OPS of 768).
• Ted Williams' best single season OPS was 1.287 in 1941 (league OPS of 765).
• Lou Gehrig's best single season OPS was 1.240 in 1927 (league OPS of .763).
• Stan Musial's best single season OPS was 1.152 in 1948 (league OPS of .760).

Obviously those four guys, plus others, have likely had an extremely high amount of success vs. individual teams, but that data is hard to come by. Those seasons above are among some of the greatest single seasons any hitters has ever had in the history of the game. Any time a hitter is able to put together a 1.155 OPS in nearly 400 plate appearances against one team ... well, simply put ... that's domination at its finest.

Until the Reds can field at least a major league average pitching staff, they should seriously consider altering their strategy against Pujols. The question then becomes, with our current pitching staff, when should we just go ahead and intentionally walk Pujols and when should we elect to pitch to him? A chart for when the Red should walk Pujols, such as this one for the league against Barry Bonds in 2002, may not be a bad idea for the Reds to look into (but we know it'll never happen!).

[Highlifeman21]

So we've vastly helped Bagwell with his HOF career with our pitching, now it looks like we're paving the way for Pujols with a steller 3 HR game today

Next time, walk Pujols, pitch to Rolen

[savafan]

So, who's the bigger Red killer, Pujols, Bagwell, Derek Lee?

What about Lyle Overbay?

There just seems to be those handful of guys that destroy Reds pitching no matter what. Is it easier to pick up the baseball with the Reds' pitcher's uniform as a backdrop than other teams' uniforms?

[Highlifeman21]

Didn't we turn Bill Hall (of all people) into a Reds killer last year, or the year before?

I remember in July of 2000, Omar Vizquel playing for the Indians at the time took us deep twice in the same game. IIRC, Jr homered in the same game.

My buddy and I sat in dead CF in a sea of Indians fans. I think I'm still recovering.

[Cyclone792]

So, who's the bigger Red killer, Pujols, Bagwell, Derek Lee?

What about Lyle Overbay?

There just seems to be those handful of guys that destroy Reds pitching no matter what. Is it easier to pick up the baseball with the Reds' pitcher's uniform as a backdrop than other teams' uniforms?

Pujols and Bagwell are, as shown earlier. Here's some other past and present NL Central players, including Lee and Overbay:

• Derrek Lee: .943 OPS vs. Reds, .867 OPS overall in his career.
• Lyle Overbay: 1.229 OPS vs. Reds, .824 OPS overall in his career.
• Lance Berkman: 1.158 OPS vs. Reds, .976 OPS overall in his career.
• Jim Edmonds: .988 OPS vs. Reds, .924 OPS overall in his career.
• Scott Rolen: .953 OPS vs. Reds, .890 OPS overall in his career.
• Aramis Ramirez: .928 OPS vs. Reds, .808 OPS overall in his career.
• Brian Giles: 1.031 OPS vs. Reds, .953 OPS overall in his career.
• Geoff Jenkins: .899 OPS vs. Reds, .854 OPS overall in his career.
• Jason Bay: 1.147 OPS vs. Reds, .942 OPS overall in his career.

I sense a trend here. Reds pitching just can't get good hitters out, not that we should really be surprised about that given our recent historically bad pitching.

I looked up 10 hitters at random who have played in the NL Central either currently or in the past, and the nine above have tore up Reds pitching at a rate higher than their career averages.

Interestingly, Craig Biggio is the only one out of those 10 random NL Central players who has done slightly worse against the Reds than his career norms. Biggio's posted a .748 OPS vs. Cincy compared to a lifetime mark of .806.

[Cyclone792]

Didn't we turn Bill Hall (of all people) into a Reds killer last year, or the year before?

I remember in July of 2000, Omar Vizquel playing for the Indians at the time took us deep twice in the same game. IIRC, Jr homered in the same game.

My buddy and I sat in dead CF in a sea of Indians fans. I think I'm still recovering.

Bill Hall: 1.060 OPS vs. Reds, .751 OPS overall in his career.

Yep, like most guys, Bill Hall is also a Reds killer.

[wheels]

Reds pitchers stand no chance against a given team's best hitters.

They're the true whipping boys.

[savafan]

The other trend is that rookie pitchers making their major league debut against the Reds always tend to look like Cy Young on the mound.

[OnBaseMachine]

-Craig Wilson: Career .926 OPS vs. Reds, .861 OPS overall in his career.
-David Eckstein: Career .803 OPS vs Reds, .713 OPS overall in his career.

[Hollcat]

I was thinking that Bonds was the all-time Reds killer

[Mario-Rijo]

I would be very interested to see who (individual pitchers) does well vs. a Pujols or Lee and the like. I mean who has their number. It might give us an indication as to what it takes to beat them.

[RedsManRick]

With tying runs and/or go ahead runs on base I would not pitch to Pujols. I wouldn't walk in the trying or go ahead run, but otherwise, he'd get a free pass.

[RedFanAlways1966]

Didn't we turn Bill Hall (of all people) into a Reds killer last year, or the year before?

2004 was the year. It was an ugly 3-day period then...

April 26: Austin Kearns suffers a broken forearm when HBP against Pittsburgh's Ryan Vogelsong.

April 27: REDS lose 9-8 to Milwaukee. Bill Hall hits a 2-run, 2-out PH HR off of Danny Somebody for a walkoff win. Chad Moeller hits for the cycle!

April 28: REDS lose 10-9 in 10 innings... after leading 9-0! Milwaukee wins on a suicide squeeze bunt by Bill Hall (Van Poppel takes the L). Jason LaRue goes 3-for-5 with 4 RBIs... but breaks his finger in the game and goes on the DL.