Of course, he still has a 380-390 OBP right now so I shouldnt even be saying this. But he IS hitting 290-300 currently. His IsoD is down from about 140 to about 90-100, which again I don't even know why I'm saying this, but the fact that it is down is concerning. Anyone know what's up?
9BB in 12 games works out to 121 for the season. No he hasn't lost the ability although I will grant you he has swung at more than a few bad pitches at the beginning of this season.
I wouldn't worry about it after 12 games.
If you want to worry about someone who has lost the ability to walk you may want to look at Austin Kearns who has a 1 BB for the season.
Kearns is going to be ok. .340/.353/.700 4 HR 6 2Bs 35 Total BasesOriginally Posted by flyer85
Dunn's numbers after 12 games look great as well. .310/.415/.833 35 Total Bases
As far as worrying about Dunn, I would be more worried that he only has 1 double so far, but the other things he does well, get on base and hit 4 base hits, more than make up for that.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
On pace for 121 walks.....
The answer to your question is NO.
No I saw him walking around the dugout early in the game yesterday, I'm pretty sure he can still walk despite not being able to stay upright in LF on occasion this season.
Just saying...
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It's funny this thread gets started after a game where Dunn walked twice.
He's on pace for another 100 walk season.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
But his current OBP is entirely BA driven which will become a problem when his BA drops. Without the BBs and a drop in BA you end up with a hitter that looks a lot like the departed WMP.
If the pitchers start pitching him more carefully he'll take the walk.
1 BB every 8.5 trips to the plate for his career
Something Pena had trouble doing - 1/17
while 50 ABs is a small sample size that 1/50 ratio is a bit troubling at this point because I for one don't forsee his BA continuing at around .340
Why not?I for one don't forsee his BA continuing at around .340
Dunn's on pace for 103 HR's in that world.
must be something in the air
Kearns is second on the team in pitches/per plate appearance with an average of 4.27 P/PA. It's not like he is going up there and just hacking away on the first or second pitch every atbat. At least he is working the count and stinging the ball. The walks will eventually start coming again.
Dunn is fine also. Nine walks in 53 plate appearances equals out to around a walk every 5.8 PA's or so, which is slightly better than his career average of a walk every 6.02.
He's had a chance for a few more walks but he chased a few bad pitches on 3-2 counts lately. But he did look real good at the plate yesterday after that first atbat. Dunn will be fine. I expect another season of 100+ walks and a .950+ OPS, but I'm hoping he can push it above 1.000 this year.
If you look at the relationship between strikeouts, hits, and walks, you'll see that when walks decrease, it doesn't lead to more strikeouts, but rather is an indicator of more balls put in play.
He's not walking because he's putting the ball in play more frequently. While you often hear "OBP driven by batting average" as a bad thing b/c it portends a future OBP decrease due to BA variability, in Dunn's case, this is a good thing. He's already estbalished the ability to walk when he's not hitting for average. However for somebody with his power, the more balls put in play the better. The marginal value of a ball in play over a walk is higher for Dunn than anybody else on the Reds -- and it's reflected in his insane SLG% (.833) right now. The more walks he can turn in to base hits, the better.
I'm curious what the numbers say about a player's ability to improve his contact rate over time. If Dunn didn't swing and miss so much, then you're talking about Manny Ramirez & Albert Pujols territory. I'm just not sure if there is a history of players significantly increasing their contract rate -- I imagine most players who see a decrease in strikeouts experience increased plate discipline.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-17-2006 at 12:11 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
i don't follow. please explain how it would be a good thing for Dunn to make more contact? more contact could lower his OBP and that's the whole point, get on base, don't make an out.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
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