Reds Pitching and Defense ===> Still Lousy

[Cyclone792]

Lopez was rated as average, I believe, in the fielder's bible.

I've read somewhere that Lopez was ranked 25th out of 30 in shortstop rankings, but then Erardi's article claimed that Lopez was ranked average. I'm not sure what to believe, so I may just have to pick up the book myself. I've also looked all over for Lopez's 2005 UZR, but I haven't been able to find it.

What I do know is that Lopez was terrible last season in Pinto's PMR, Gassko's fielding range, BP's fielding runs above average and James' defensive win shares. Obviously no system is near perfect, and the merits of all four can be scrutinzed, but that's four outta four systems giving Lopez terrible grades defensively. Additionally, those four grades just makes me even more curious what Lopez's UZR was last season and what The Fielder's Bible really said about him.

[RedlegJake]

Lopez was rated as average - and with his offense that's liveable. In LF Dunn is below average but his offense way more than makes up for it. EE is still very inconsistent at third and at this point I'd have to say he's subpar defensively but the skills are there to improve. Meanwhile you live with it while he learns. Philips would be a major upgrade at 2nd defensively if he can hit consistently - so far so good, but Narron will insist on playing Womack and RA there, too, costing us defensively without much offset in offense (none in Womack's case). I think you have to live with the young infield and let them play. Hopefully they'll improve the longer they play together. First is subpar, Hatteberg is a statue and Dunn is worse at first than he is in left. AK is above average in right but Junior was rated the WORST CF in baseball. He can't get back quickly anymore, his arm isn't what it was and he can't cut off the gaps to shorten the field for Dunn. Catching and Rightfield are the only positions that defensively are solid and some would argue the catching spot isn't. The Reds pitchers therefore are backed up by poor defense at first, good to average defense at second, average at short and a still error prone inconsistent youngster at third; poor to average CF play that is barely improved with Freel, a solid rightfielder and a subpar leftfielder. You have to wonder how much better Claussen and Harang and Arroyo would be with a good defense behind them. I think they'd be more consistent start to start at the least. Milton? Well, you can't defense home runs and Williams is just overrated imo (at least by Reds scouts - most of this board seems to rate him about right which is below average).

As for the bullpen, well, outside of Coffey and Weathers there isn't much to work with and both of them are merely adequate. Better defense would help but they'd still get shelled a lot.

Besides the obvious - pitching and lots of it, I think the Reds need to trade Griffey, groom the replacement for Felo who will probably be gone as soon as he hits FA if not sooner depending on how expensive he'll be in his arb years, play Philips at second to see if he will find his bat, and acquire a first baseman who is a good glove until Votto is ready. I'd give Denorfia the shot at CF for his defense and keep Freel the super sub since one of the regulars will almost always be out for one reason or another. Next to pitching, though, the rest is just tinkering.

[reds2221]

if Arroyo could pitch every game then we would have a lower era, but that can't happen

[PickOff]

Lopez will be 26 in May, and this is his second year as a full time starter at SS. He may get better or he may have topped out. History seems to show that he stands little chance of significant improvement, however.

I think a team goes with the best they got, so if the Reds have a better SS, then play him and move Lopez to 2nd. Phillips may be the answer but he hasn't even played SS in the majors. Lopez is the best the Reds have right now, though I do agree if the Reds can find a better SS then he should go to second.

I don't think moving Lopez should be a huge priority this year, however. I question if his defense hurts the Reds that much, considering his offense.

[lollipopcurve]

we're in for yet another long, painful season,

No such thing. Think about winter.

Team's got some huge holes, but the offense is great to watch and there are some real nice young players who haven't entered their primes yet. Good stuff.

[Falls City Beer]

I think there are unlimited reasons to be gloomy about this season, but I also think it's going to be very interesting to see how this team gets reshaped to contend next year. I'm a believer that a small shift in the balance of this ballclub can thrust them into contention.

[Highlifeman21]

Lopez was rated as average - and with his offense that's liveable. In LF Dunn is below average but his offense way more than makes up for it. EE is still very inconsistent at third and at this point I'd have to say he's subpar defensively but the skills are there to improve. Meanwhile you live with it while he learns. Philips would be a major upgrade at 2nd defensively if he can hit consistently - so far so good, but Narron will insist on playing Womack and RA there, too, costing us defensively without much offset in offense (none in Womack's case). I think you have to live with the young infield and let them play. Hopefully they'll improve the longer they play together. First is subpar, Hatteberg is a statue and Dunn is worse at first than he is in left. AK is above average in right but Junior was rated the WORST CF in baseball. He can't get back quickly anymore, his arm isn't what it was and he can't cut off the gaps to shorten the field for Dunn. Catching and Rightfield are the only positions that defensively are solid and some would argue the catching spot isn't. The Reds pitchers therefore are backed up by poor defense at first, good to average defense at second, average at short and a still error prone inconsistent youngster at third; poor to average CF play that is barely improved with Freel, a solid rightfielder and a subpar leftfielder. You have to wonder how much better Claussen and Harang and Arroyo would be with a good defense behind them. I think they'd be more consistent start to start at the least. Milton? Well, you can't defense home runs and Williams is just overrated imo (at least by Reds scouts - most of this board seems to rate him about right which is below average).

As for the bullpen, well, outside of Coffey and Weathers there isn't much to work with and both of them are merely adequate. Better defense would help but they'd still get shelled a lot.

Besides the obvious - pitching and lots of it, I think the Reds need to trade Griffey, groom the replacement for Felo who will probably be gone as soon as he hits FA if not sooner depending on how expensive he'll be in his arb years, play Philips at second to see if he will find his bat, and acquire a first baseman who is a good glove until Votto is ready. I'd give Denorfia the shot at CF for his defense and keep Freel the super sub since one of the regulars will almost always be out for one reason or another. Next to pitching, though, the rest is just tinkering.

Bolded statement above is entirely not true.

Dunn @ 1B

Year	G	Inn.	TC	PO	A	E	RF	F%
2002	44	352	388	360	22	6	9.77	.985
2003	19	84.2	90	81	8	1	9.46	.989
2004	10	58.2	80	76	4	0	12.27	1.000
2005	33	251.1	259	244	11	4	9.13	.985

Dunn would vastly improve our defense @ 1B if we played him there everyday.

[Johnny Footstool]

It's baffling that the staff has been this bad even though they are striking batters out at a high rate and not walking anyone. The longball really kills you.

[Cyclone792]

It's baffling that the staff has been this bad even though they are striking batters out at a high rate and not walking anyone. The longball really kills you.

Not only is it baffling, but it's disheartening.

I would hold out some hope if I knew our staff K/9 would remain near 7.5 and if our staff K/BB would stay close to 2.5, but I'm not confident at all they can maintain those figures. I do think our HR/9 will drop down a bit, though I think it will still hang around the 1.5 mark, and that's still just way too high.

What I expect to happen over the course of the season is for all the rate stats to level off to their expected levels, meaning an improvement in our current HR/9 rate, but a dropoff in K/9 and K/BB. The one improvement I expect the team to maintain is BB/9.

If I had to take a stab at guessing our end of season dERA, my guess would be 4.60. That'd be a slight improvement over last season's 4.75 dERA, but with our defense, the actual team ERA will still likely be in the 4.75 to 5.00 range.

[Cyclone792]

Here's our individual DIPS ERA numbers. The sample sizes, especially for relievers, makes this more humorous than anything, but it's interesting nonetheless:

Arm        dERA    Actual ERA

Coffey     2.36      1.17
Claussen   3.00      3.18
Hammond    3.30     24.00
Belisle    3.92      5.40
Burns      4.28      7.56
Mercker    4.56      2.70
Harang     4.57      6.35
Arroyo     4.89      3.86
White      5.84      5.59
Milton     5.99      6.50
Williams   7.74      8.00
Weathers   7.75      4.05
Gosling   15.24     13.50

Team       4.89      5.66