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Thread: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    This guy has to be one of dumbest writers in baseball. How does he even have a job? Someone needs to tell this guy that a 493 foot home run is gone in any park, including Yellowstone. The Reds horrible pitching and great hitters make it look like a great hitters park, not the park itself.

    Going yard, again and again and ...
    Longball is way of life at GABP
    BY PAUL DAUGHERTY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

    In the sixth inning Wednesday, someone named Reggie Abercrombie of the Florida Marlins hit a ball 493 feet to the upper-deck bleachers in left field at Great American Small Park. Reg-gie Reg-gie was hitting .080 three days ago. It was his first major-league home run. No surprise there.

    You could hit a home run at GASP! So could I. So could Marty Brennaman, Paula Abdul, Boy George, the Olsen twins and Zippy the Singing Chimp.

    The Cincinnati Reds don't need pitchers who can keep their pitches down. They need pitchers who can hit lots of home runs. That way, they would have a chance to smash as many homers as are smashed against them.


    When does it stop being over-the-top silly at GASP!, and take the turn to borderline fraudulent?

    The Marlins hit four homers Wednesday. They hit three the night before. That's seven in two games from a team that had 10 in its first 12 games. It didn't matter that the Reds and Marlins threw their aces. It didn't matter it's April. (Wait 'til it heats up; the ball will fly like a John Daly 3-wood.) It didn't matter that the wind didn't blow. It was bombs-away. In the left- and right-field bleachers at the smallpark, every day is Ball Day.

    Afterward, Reds manager Jerry Narron applauded his team's pluck.

    The Reds did rally from five runs down against Dontrelle Willis, so Narron had a point. Then the manager said this: "Last night, I felt like we could come back, even when we were down 10-2" in an eventual 12-6 loss. "Our guys really believe we're going to score some runs."

    Why wouldn't they? Playing in the Small Park is like hitting fungos in a phone booth. Thirty-three homers already, in nine games. Tops in baseball, again. Last year, GASP! permitted 246 dingers, 13 more than the second-most generous park. In Cincinnati, Reggie Abercrombie is King Kong.

    A problem with this is it messes with the integrity of the longball. The bigger problem, if you care about the home team, is that nobody with an option and No. 1-starter stuff will want to pitch here. The last thing a club that hasn't developed a starting pitcher in 20 years needs is a ballpark where free agents refuse to pitch.

    You can look to other places as homer-friendly, but most come with alibis. Wrigley Field, when the wind blows out. Coors Field, because of the thin air. What's the excuse here? The only park close to this one in the National League is Minute Maid in Houston, and even there the distance increases significantly once you get away from the foul lines.

    Narron even offered that the ball seems livelier this year. Conspiracy theorists would suggest that just because players aren't allowed to juice doesn't mean MLB can't juice the baseball. If as many balls fly out this year as in recent years, Baseball can argue that steroids didn't have as big an effect as supposed.

    Regardless, GASP! remains a place where men are men and pitchers are scared. What do the Reds do about it? Should they do anything? Chicks dig the longball, not the fastball. Fences were moved in this year in San Diego and Detroit. The ball apparently does everything but half-gainers getting out of the new Busch Stadium.

    But when does it start getting ridiculous? In Philadelphia, they decided it already had. After two seasons of 200-plus homers at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies moved the left-field wall back 5 feet and raised it from 8 feet to 101/2. Team spokesman Larry Shenk said the move already has taken away "four or five" home runs. The move also took out 196 seats, so don't hold your breath for the Reds to do something similar.

    But the fact is, teams that win 9-8 don't win titles. Narron argues, "It's more (about) pitches than it is the ballpark. If you make good pitches, you have a chance to get guys out." If you don't, you're suffering whiplash watching balls exit the grass. Can a whole pitching staff go on the DL with neck sprains? Meanwhile, Reggie Abercrombie can't wait to come back.

    E-mail pdaugherty@enquirer.com

    http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...604200342/1071
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    I agree. Any scientific minds out there? The dimensions of GABP are really not that small, save for maybe the foul lines, but even those aren't so bad in comparison to most parks today. Is there a wind-tunnel things going on I'm not aware of? Do the Red seats trigger a hormonal change in batters?

    The econ major in me is telling me that this is merely a correlation rather than causation. I'd say its probably more: (Reds pitchers suck)+(Reds hitters are really good)+(players for SOME UNKNOWN REASON!! are bigger) = lots of HRs

    Or I guess maybe the toxins from the Ohio river mutate pop-ups into 493 foot home-runs... any radiologists here?

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    I think Daugherty is spouting the conventional wisdom, but the above post makes me wonder about finding someone to plot all the homers hit showing where in the park, breaking it down by Reds and visitors, comparing innings in which they were hit, compare the pitchers (winning/losing, above league avg. ERA/below...), etc. Anybody got some time on their hands? Maybe I'll email Lonnie Wheeler and suggest a column.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Wouldn't a 493 foot homer leave any yard? How far back does he propose they move the fence?

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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Remember, though, Daugherty is a columnist not a baseball writer per se. His main charge is to be entertaining and thought provoking on the subject of sports. We may not agree with what he's written here but I guarantee it will provoke some thought.

    I wonder if analysis of the homers hit at the GABP will reveal any effect from the gap in the upper deck behind the visitors on-deck circle. Maybe there is a slip-stream that blows out to right field from there and any ball caught up in it gets an extra 10-15 feet...of course that doesn't explain the upper-deckers to left.

    I guess I'm of the mind that there are three main factors in the number of homers at the GABP, in order: the Reds have some big hitters, the Reds have some lousy pitchers, the park itself (layout, location, and dimensions).

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz
    I think Daugherty is spouting the conventional wisdom
    I think conventional ignorance is the more apt description. The Marlins hit those HRs because the Reds pitching was awful. As the Marlins announcers commented yesterday "those would have been HRs anywhere". Using the park as an excuse doesn't cut it. Dontrelle kept the ball down and the Reds didn't come close to hitting a HR off of him.

    Jerry Narron was exactly right, it's about the pitching, or lack of it.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    some pitcher i found with 10 or more IP at GABP

    Code:
    -		Career	-	GABP
    Pitcher		IP	HR/9	IP	HR/9
    Belisle		101	1.07	49.1	1.09
    Carpenter	1321.1	1.06	22	1.64
    Claussen	256	1.23	140	1.29
    Davis		906	0.96	34	1.06
    Dempster	1085.2	1.04	58.1	1.23
    Estes		1634.2	0.84	20	1.35
    Hancock		96.2	1.96	36.1	2.48
    Harang		550	1.16	218.2	1.44
    Lidge		267.2	0.71	11.1	1.54
    Maddux		4526.2	0.61	21	3.43
    Marquis		735.1	1.17	36.1	1.49
    Mercker		1286.2	1.04	64	1.69
    Miller		859	1.04	16.1	1.65
    Milton		1392.2	1.53	104	2.16
    Mulder		1228	0.89	11	1.64
    Ohka		864	1.06	29	1.55
    Oswalt		1010	0.73	26.2	1.69
    Perez		535.2	1.43	42	1.93
    Pettitte	2122	0.73	25	0.00
    Prior		613.1	1.00	19.2	0.00
    Rusch		1323.2	1.12	16.1	1.10
    Sheets		987.1	1.08	19	0.47
    Suppan		1687.2	1.22	22.2	1.19
    Torres		635.2	1.02	18.2	2.89
    Williams	343.2	1.34	17	1.59
    Williamson	393	0.69	22	0.82
    Wilson		941.2	1.20	226	1.27
    Wood		1109	1.00	44	1.43
    Zambrano	785.2	0.68	30.1	1.19
    i dont have time right now to figure WHIP or ERA, however at a glance while making this, the ERAs at GABP are going to be almost at their career norm.
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  9. #8
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    GABP is a HR friendly ballpark, no one will deny that. However, the White Sox won the WS last year playing in an even more HR friendly park. Laying any blame on GABP for the Reds woes is a lame excuse, it is the abysmal pitching that is the Reds problem and it will be exposed in any ballpark. In other parks some of those HRs would be turned into doubles and triples.

    The answer to the Reds problem is simple, GET BETTER PITCHERS!
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    GABP is a HR friendly ballpark, no one will deny that. However, the White Sox won the WS last year playing in an even more HR friendly park. Laying any blame on GABP for the Reds woes is a lame excuse, it is the abysmal pitching that is the Reds problem and it will be exposed in any ballpark. In other parks some of those HRs would be turned into doubles and triples.

    The answer to the Reds problem is simple, GET BETTER PITCHERS!
    Last year GAB gave up more than the Cell and way ahead of everybody this season..........I'm in minority here......yes better pitching would help, but when is it coming.....it's catch 22......GAB is branded now as the worst pitching park in baseball and will not help them get any free agent pitchers.........would it hurt to raise the fence and move them back some in areas.....I do think psychologically it would help the pitching....right field is way too short.....370 in in right center is short...and it's only 325 down line in right....down both lines it's not deep enough......it's 404 in center, that's decent......take Jacobs Field it's center is 400, but deepest part of left center is 420.......and has mini green monster in left, where the fence is shorter down the lines, but you still got hit farther, over much higher fence.....most parks have deep areas in left or right center where it jets out deep, then comes back in in center or Miller Park is deeper down the lines, something like 342,...I'd like to see some character added to the distances in GAB, why not tinker with it.....there really is no dead zone in the outfield where pitcher can get bailed out........Minute maid is real short down both lines, but super deep in center....Just not really any pitcher friendley spots in GAB........

  11. #10
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Lost in Paul's "analysis" was two very important facts.

    1) The homer happy Reds did not hit a one yesterday. Why was that? Willis on the mound, hmmmmm. Harang admitted hanging one to Uggla that resulted in a 3 run homer. Abercrombie and Cabrera both reached the upper deck. It's called BP pitches these guys are getting. It's called Eric Milton on the mound.

    2) The Marlins play in a park that is tough on the longball, helping to explain why they had so few homers prior to visiting Cincy.

    This much is sure, GAB does give up some cheap homers, mostly to right center and down the right field line. But the gaps are small, and if we had anybody that could chuck, they would likely put up something like a Robin Roberts or Curt Schilling--lots of longballs and an ERA in the 2s or low 3s. But we don't, we have a staff of generally really bad pitchers. The only way that article would make any sense is if it was written tongue-in-cheek as Paul sometimes does, but clearly he was not here.
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  12. #11
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Is an "upper deck" home run at GABP the same kind of mammoth clout that an "upper deck" at Riverfront was? Is the GABP upper deck lower or closer?

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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Quote Originally Posted by indyred
    Last year GAB gave up more than the Cell and way ahead of everybody this season
    Raw counts are not how ballpark factors are calculated. The factors are calculated by comparing how teams perform in one park in comparison to other ballparks.

    Ballpark factors 2003-2005 form Baseball HQ
    Factors are broken down for RH and LH hitters.

    Of note
    Code:
    US Cellular  LH HR +31  RH HR +37
    Ameriquest  LH HR +37  RH HR +6
    GABP         LH HR +17  RH HR +16
    Citizens     LH HR +21  RH HR +20
    Coors        LH HR +26   RH HR +18
    Petco        LH HR -22   RH HR -41
    During this time run scoring for GABP is less than +5

    And the most interesting, 2 with short porches in left and big RFs
    Fenway LH HR -18 RH HR +13
    Minute Maid LH HR -23 RH HR +33
    Last edited by flyer85; 04-20-2006 at 11:12 AM.
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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Another issue,

    would you want an OF of Dunn, JR and Kearns chasing down flyballs in a big outfield with a lot of ground to cover?
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Another issue,

    would you want an OF of Dunn, JR and Kearns chasing down flyballs in a big outfield with a lot of ground to cover?
    Good point......would need a CF that can cover some ground.......short term no......when a new CF comes aboard and Dunn goes to first...then yes..

  16. #15
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    some pitcher i found with 10 or more IP at GABP

    Code:
    -		Career	-	GABP
    Pitcher		IP	HR/9	IP	HR/9
    Belisle		101	1.07	49.1	1.09
    Carpenter	1321.1	1.06	22	1.64
    Claussen	256	1.23	140	1.29
    Davis		906	0.96	34	1.06
    Dempster	1085.2	1.04	58.1	1.23
    Estes		1634.2	0.84	20	1.35
    Hancock		96.2	1.96	36.1	2.48
    Harang		550	1.16	218.2	1.44
    Lidge		267.2	0.71	11.1	1.54
    Maddux		4526.2	0.61	21	3.43
    Marquis		735.1	1.17	36.1	1.49
    Mercker		1286.2	1.04	64	1.69
    Miller		859	1.04	16.1	1.65
    Milton		1392.2	1.53	104	2.16
    Mulder		1228	0.89	11	1.64
    Ohka		864	1.06	29	1.55
    Oswalt		1010	0.73	26.2	1.69
    Perez		535.2	1.43	42	1.93
    Pettitte	2122	0.73	25	0.00
    Prior		613.1	1.00	19.2	0.00
    Rusch		1323.2	1.12	16.1	1.10
    Sheets		987.1	1.08	19	0.47
    Suppan		1687.2	1.22	22.2	1.19
    Torres		635.2	1.02	18.2	2.89
    Williams	343.2	1.34	17	1.59
    Williamson	393	0.69	22	0.82
    Wilson		941.2	1.20	226	1.27
    Wood		1109	1.00	44	1.43
    Zambrano	785.2	0.68	30.1	1.19
    i dont have time right now to figure WHIP or ERA, however at a glance while making this, the ERAs at GABP are going to be almost at their career norm.
    A few who jump out at me are Carpenter, Maddux and Oswalt, all of whom have higher home run ratios at GABP. And yet neither Pettite or Prior has given up a homer at the park. Interesting.


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