# Thread: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

1. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Originally Posted by KronoRed
Break out the pocket calculators.

Mine's a SHARP elsi mate EL-233S

Just sayin.

3. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Originally Posted by Raisor
Mine's a SHARP elsi mate EL-233S

Just sayin.
I like my TI-85, but having MATLAB on my computer kicks butt.
Just saying.

4. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Originally Posted by Raisor
Mine's a SHARP elsi mate EL-233S

Just sayin.
Calculator of champions

6. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

If a key to creating runs is avoiding outs, would not creating outs for your opponent (defense) be equally important in winning a baseball game?

7. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Of course it is. No one has ever argued otherwise. I think I know what you're getting at, but the difference between good hitters and bad hitters as it relates to outs avoided is significantly larger than the difference between good fielders and bad fielders and the number of extra outs given to the other team.

8. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

I'm not so sure about that...if the point of the argument is that avoiding outs gives you the opportunity to score, if your opponent gives you extra outs (because they are bad defenders) that would radically help my offensive numbers.

9. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Last year, Manny Ramirez accumulted 329 total bases in 650 plate appearances.

Casey Blake was probably the worst offensive left fielder in the game last year. He accumulated 229 bases in 583 plate appearances.

If you equalize thouse out over 650 plate appearances, that gives Manny 74 more total bases than Blake.

Let's assume that Mannyis the worst defensive left fielder in the game and Blake is the best (even though he's not). There's no way possible that Manny's defense costs his team 74 bases over the course of a year. That's almost a base every other game. It's just not realistic.

10. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

There's no way possible that Manny's defense costs his team 74 bases over the course of a year. That's almost a base every other game. It's just not realistic.
It is for a guy like Willie Mo, when he gives them up 4 at a time.

11. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Also, for example, when a ball is hit that a bad defender does not get to and it lands for a hit, it is not recorded as a statistic for the defender, as the presumed out was an event that did not happen. Whereas for the hitter of that ball, he receives a positive statistic for the hit, not based on his ability to get a hit, but his opponent's defensive inablilty. In addition, a "great play" definsively is not weighted more than a routine out, yet a great play takes an out away from the opponent.

12. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

All true, but not even the greatest fielders of all time were worth more than 70 bases in a year over average fielder.

13. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

But if what I'm saying is true, there's no way to accumulate data on defensive numbers and no way to really ascertain its impact.

14. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Sure there is and it's been done. The question is would you believe it if it was presented to you?

It pretty much shows that even the very best of defensive players, and at the most defensive positions such as shortstop, are only worth about a dozen runs a year over the not so good fielders.

15. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

Case in point--the Lopez strikeout where he reached base tonight--did it not equal 4 bases when he scored?

16. ## Re: I feel dirty (I tried offensive correlation)

You can't bring up a single situation that happened in a single game to draw conclusions. Again, the research has been done. Are you going to believe it if it's presented to you?

And the same thing goes for offense. When a guy gets a single and scores, is it not worth 4 bases? That's not included in the individual offensive stats. And it's not included in the total bases I listed above.

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