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Thread: OPS with RISP

  1. #1
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    OPS with RISP

    The Marty/Dunn thread has brought up a lot of discussion about the value of statistics. Much of that discussion has focused on Dunn's ability/inability to hit with RISP--the old "clutch" argument. One poster mentioned that Dunn's OPS with RISP was over 1.000. That OPS would suggest that Dunn is indeed a solid clutch hitter. But my question is this: what's the league average OPS with RISP? Can any of you statheads provide the answer?
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  3. #2
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Last year Pujols had a 1.093 with RISP and Dunn had 1.042. Lance Berkman was at .829 and Andruw Jones was at .721.

    The league average was somewhere around .760, which turns out to be right about the overall league average OPS.
    Last edited by MWM; 04-22-2006 at 10:47 PM.

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    Re: OPS with RISP

    This should give you the answers to what you're looking for, and more ...

    Code:
    Major League splits 2001-2005
    
    2005
              G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    Total 68435 166335 22325 43991 8863  888 5017 21248 15207 1216 30644 1797 1620 1315   18 1946 3912 2565 1069  .264  .330  .419
    
    Situation         AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    None On        94735  2847 24419 4972  534 2842  2842  7491    2 17586  935    0    0    6  919    0    0    0  .258  .318  .412
    Men On         71600 19478 19572 3891  354 2175 18406  7716 1214 13058  862 1620 1315   12 1027 3912 2565 1069  .273  .345  .429
    RISP           41410 16716 11038 2225  231 1227 15709  5489 1214  8054  559  707 1315    3  604 1467  649  179  .267  .350  .420
    Bases Loaded    3977  3413  1101  227   20  132  3164   271    0   822   51    2  336    0   84  276    0    1  .277  .307  .444
    
    
    2004
              G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    Total 68880 167353 23376 44522 8919  898 5451 22248 16222 1380 31828 1850 1731 1363   20 2032 3786 2589 1100  .266  .335  .428
    
    Situation         AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    None On        94614  3154 24836 5027  521 3145  3145  7901   19 17994  866    0    0    6  965    0    0    0  .262  .325  .426
    Men On         72739 20222 19686 3892  377 2306 19103  8321 1361 13834  984 1731 1363   14 1067 3786 2589 1100  .271  .348  .430
    RISP           42090 17318 11118 2249  245 1299 16267  5971 1350  8366  641  734 1363    7  639 1434  616  191  .264  .354  .422
    Bases Loaded    4198  3701  1159  246   28  133  3430   329    0   848   64    2  355    1   78  318    0    5  .276  .314  .443
    
    
    2003
              G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    Total 68532 166737 22978 44057 8827  934 5207 21886 15889 1316 30801 1849 1626 1336   12 2042 3850 2573 1132  .264  .333  .422
    
    Situation         AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    None On        94621  3052 24431 4981  498 3048  3048  7837    7 17683  894    0    0    6  975    0    0    0  .258  .321  .418
    Men On         72116 19926 19626 3846  436 2159 18838  8052 1309 13118  955 1626 1336    6 1067 3850 2573 1132  .272  .347  .427
    RISP           41875 17168 11171 2232  277 1241 16151  5729 1306  8103  639  671 1336    3  633 1428  632  201  .267  .354  .422
    Bases Loaded    4043  3608  1152  222   32  123  3371   326    0   821   64    2  358    0   66  313    1    3  .285  .322  .447
    
    
    2002
              G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    Total 68345 165582 22408 43272 8700  921 5059 21332 16246 1452 31394 1746 1633 1399    9 2055 3846 2750 1282  .261  .331  .417
    
    Situation         AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    None On        94374  2954 24231 5041  498 2948  2948  7974   12 17993  859    0    0    3  937    0    0    0  .257  .320  .414
    Men On         71208 19454 19041 3659  423 2111 18384  8272 1440 13401  887 1633 1399    6 1118 3846 2750 1282  .267  .345  .420
    RISP           41569 16844 10990 2175  270 1209 15843  5849 1434  8305  573  698 1399    2  670 1395  670  257  .264  .353  .417
    Bases Loaded    4043  3523  1129  249   39  125  3304   268    0   836   57    5  393    1   79  307    0    2  .279  .305  .453
    
    
    2001
              G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    Total 68510 166234 23199 43879 8813  928 5458 22087 15806 1384 32404 1890 1607 1424   15 2133 3653 3103 1408  .264  .332  .427
    
    Situation         AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB  IBB    SO  HBP   SH   SF   XI  ROE  GDP   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
    None On        95108  3218 24594 4922  533 3212  3212  7750    6 18662  980    0    0    1 1037    0    0    0  .259  .321  .423
    Men On         71126 19981 19285 3891  395 2246 18875  8056 1378 13742  910 1607 1424   14 1096 3653 3103 1408  .271  .347  .432
    RISP           41283 16983 10981 2327  237 1199 15942  5828 1374  8567  587  720 1424    6  645 1333  871  272  .266  .354  .421
    Bases Loaded    3949  3575  1149  260   36  134  3330   255    0   840   55    4  362    0   75  286    0    1  .291  .316  .477
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  5. #4
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    And Mr. Clutch himself, Big Papi had an OPS of 1.042 last year with RISP.

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    Re: OPS with RISP

    This really adds nothing to the conversation but it is topical.

    http://www.livescience.com/othernews...h_hitters.html


    Study Reveals Baseball's Great Clutch Hitters
    By LiveScience Staff

    posted: 05 May 2005
    05:01 pm ET



    A baseball fan and statistics buff has proven that clutch hitters really do exist, putting statistics behind the obvious.

    The new study, by math and economics student Elan Fuld of the University of Pennsylvania, was announced by the university Thursday.

    Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments. He studied stats on 1,075 Major League players in the 1974-1992 seasons.

    Factors determining a clutch hit: how many bases were occupied, the score at the time, the inning, and how many outs. He also counted sacrifice flies, in which a runner scores but no hit is recorded.

    "What I found was that, when I included sacrifice flys in the analysis, there was overwhelming evidence that there were clutch hitters," Fuld said.

    So who were the greatest under pressure? Frank Duffy, Eddie Murray and Luis Gomez stood out.

    Bill Buckner, known as a choke artist for his Game 6 World Series error in 1986 that many remember as costing Boston the championship, was statistically proven to be a clutch hitter, too.

    Fans and players have always known there's a lot of psychology to hitting.

    "Once situational importance rose to around at least a certain level," Fuld explained, "the player would start to think this is very important and start doing something that makes him hit better, if he's clutch, or panics and does something that makes him hit worse, if he's a choke hitter."







    Boston Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner is a picture of dejection as he leaves the field after committing an error on a ball hit by New York Mets Mookie Wilson which allowed the winning run to score in the sixth game of the World Series, Saturday night, Oct. 25, 1986 in New York. AP PHOTO/Rusty Kennedy

    > Click to View



    While a Baltimore Oriole, Eddie Murray hit two home runs Wednesday August 14, 1996 against the Milwaukee Brewers in Baltimore. AP Photo/John Mummert
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    So, the league average OPS with RISP is around .770-.775. I think we can then make the conclusion that AD does just fine with RISP. Would that be a fair conclusion to everyone on the board?
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Argos
    So, the league average OPS with RISP is around .770-.775. I think we can then make the conclusion that AD does just fine with RISP. Would that be a fair conclusion to everyone on the board?


  9. #8
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    I really like adam dunn, and i think he will get better with age, but sometimes i dread seeing him come up with runners on 3rd base and one out, he's so likely to strikeout.

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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what? I would enjoy if one of you fine people would bring me up the stats to show what Dunn's probability to to do one of the following A) walk B) K C)HR or D) other. I think those numbers would be pretty telling.

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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by RisingReds
    I really like adam dunn, and i think he will get better with age, but sometimes i dread seeing him come up with runners on 3rd base and one out, he's so likely to strikeout.
    I agree but keep in mind Marty always aknowledges Dunn's negatives but rarely his positives.

    However, Dunn's problem is he see runners in scoring posistion and changes his approach at the plate. It's a fallacy to tell batters to change their approach with RISP. They think that putting in the ball in the play is a must. This is certainly not true considering your liable to swing at bad pitches when tempted to put the ball in play no matter what. Dunn seems to do this. He has a different approach when he bats with no runners on. He focuses on getting on base and getting his pitch. If he would use the same approach with RISP I think his AVG with RISP would elevate quite steadily.

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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by forfreelin04
    Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what? I would enjoy if one of you fine people would bring me up the stats to show what Dunn's probability to to do one of the following A) walk B) K C)HR or D) other. I think those numbers would be pretty telling.

    Ask and you shall receive. From 2003-2005:

    Code:
    By Situation	 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	HBP 	SO 	SB 	CS 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS	SO%	BB%	HR%
    1B Only			285	35	77	12	1	22	46	63	7	90	10	3	0.270	0.414	0.551	0.965	31.58%	22.11%	7.72%
    Bases Loaded		40	52	8	3	0	4	33	7	0	20	0	0	0.200	0.300	0.575	0.875	50.00%	17.50%	10.00%
    Close and Late		228	44	55	11	0	19	44	50	5	87	3	0	0.241	0.385	0.539	0.924	38.16%	21.93%	8.33%
    First and Second	110	42	29	8	0	8	43	20	6	37	1	0	0.264	0.404	0.555	0.959	33.64%	18.18%	7.27%
    First and Third		46	23	9	1	0	4	21	16	1	15	4	1	0.196	0.400	0.478	0.878	32.61%	34.78%	8.70%
    Lead Off Inning		377	0	100	22	2	30	30	35	3	110	0	0	0.265	0.333	0.573	0.906	29.18%	9.28%	7.96%
    Man on 3rd, <2 out	72	62	16	5	0	7	54	24	2	28	1	1	0.222	0.404	0.583	0.987	38.89%	33.33%	9.72%
    Men On, 2 out		278	85	60	14	0	12	62	94	2	105	11	2	0.216	0.417	0.396	0.813	37.77%	33.81%	4.32%
    None On			842	64	208	47	2	64	64	106	10	277	0	0	0.247	0.338	0.536	0.874	32.90%	12.59%	7.60%
    None On, 1/2 out	445	32	105	25	0	32	32	68	5	160	0	0	0.236	0.344	0.508	0.852	35.96%	15.28%	7.19%
    None On/Out		397	32	103	22	2	32	32	38	5	117	0	0	0.259	0.332	0.567	0.899	29.47%	9.57%	8.06%
    On Second		116	31	25	8	0	6	25	58	1	37	3	0	0.216	0.480	0.440	0.920	31.90%	50.00%	5.17%
    On Third		33	15	6	2	0	3	14	14	0	5	0	0	0.182	0.426	0.515	0.941	15.15%	42.42%	9.09%
    Runners On		650	218	159	34	1	49	196	190	17	212	18	5	0.245	0.424	0.526	0.950	32.62%	29.23%	7.54%
    Scoring Position	365	183	82	22	0	27	150	127	10	122	8	2	0.225	0.431	0.507	0.938	33.42%	34.79%	7.40%
    Scoring Posn, 2 out	166	78	36	11	0	9	55	69	1	57	7	1	0.217	0.449	0.446	0.895	34.34%	41.57%	5.42%
    Second and Third	20	20	5	0	0	2	14	12	2	8	0	1	0.250	0.543	0.550	1.093	40.00%	60.00%	10.00%
    Edit: Added percentage of HR, K and BB for each situation.
    Last edited by paintmered; 04-22-2006 at 11:50 PM.
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by forfreelin04
    Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what? I would enjoy if one of you fine people would bring me up the stats to show what Dunn's probability to to do one of the following A) walk B) K C)HR or D) other. I think those numbers would be pretty telling.
    They wouldn't tell us anything about Dunn everyone doesn't already understand.

    But your use of the word "inflated" is telling.
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Based on the previous stat (thanks), Dunn either walks or strikes out in half of his plate appearance with RISP. Interesting.
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    Re: OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by forfreelin04
    Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what?
    Isn't that like saying that a player's BA is inflated due to his ability to get hits?

    A HR increases one's OPS because it increases OBA and SL%. THe word "inflates" suggests some artificial increase. There's nothing less artificial than a HR.


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