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Thread: Arroyo

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Arroyo

    I'm not going to go out and claim he's a legit Ace or anything, but it's so nice to see another solid major league starter in this rotation. Right now, I feel like Harang and Arroyo give us a good chance to win every game they pitch. The concerns about his K/9 rate appear to addressed and this will be his 4th QS in 5 games. I love the over 4:1 K/BB ratio as well.

    The only question in my mind is whether the K/9 decrease last year was a fatigue issue, minor injury, or simple random chance. His career Pre-Post AS break splits are virtually identicaly so I don't think it's a serious fatigue thing and think we have reason to believe he'll remain effective.

    I suppose one could argue that given his repitoire he gets hit harder once guys are familiar with him. Does anybody have some numbers on how he's pitched against teams as he begins to see them multiple times? So far this year his best outing was the 2nd time faced the Cubs...

    Unless Wily Mo really does end up going Sammy Sosa, I'm really liking the trade more and more...
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-26-2006 at 04:10 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Arroyo is giving us exactly what I wanted, and with a little bit of hit-luck sprinkled in he's really done a spectacular job overall. Here's some Arroyo stats through the 8th inning of today's game vs. Washington:

    Actual ERA: 2.34
    DIPS ERA: 3.97
    HR/9: 1.30
    K/9: 7.79
    BB/9: 1.82
    K/BB: 4.29
    BABIP: .263*

    * Does not include today's game, but through the 8th inning it has to be lower

    Arroyo has been hit lucky so far this year, but heck, I won't complain at all. His DIPS figures are precisely where I hoped they'd be, though his HR/9 figure is slightly higher than his career mark, but as Rick noted his K/9 rate has rebounded.

    Another big key is that Arroyo has dropped his BB/9 rate to 1.82 compared to his career mark of 2.86. In both 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 2.37 so the early drop this year in BB/9 has been a great surprise.

    I do expect his BABIP to go up as I don't think he can hold it down near the .260 level all season. If Arroyo can lower his HR/9 while holding his K/9 and BB/9 levels steady, however, it should help balance out his BABIP regressing back to normal a bit.

    EDIT: Adjusted stats through the 8th inning of today's work.
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 04-26-2006 at 04:38 PM.
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  4. #3
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    I'm worried about him relying on his curveball too much. He's throwing it in hitters counts and it's a weird style. I'm thinking the second time he faces teams will be key. I guess the Cubs game makes me feel better.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  5. #4
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Arroyo is giving us exactly what I wanted, and with a little bit of hit-luck sprinkled in he's really done a spectacular job overall. Here's some Arroyo stats through the 8th inning of today's game vs. Washington:

    Actual ERA: 2.34
    DIPS ERA: 3.97
    HR/9: 1.30
    K/9: 7.79
    BB/9: 1.82
    K/BB: 4.29
    BABIP: .263*

    * Does not include today's game, but through the 8th inning it has to be lower

    Arroyo has been hit lucky so far this year, but heck, I won't complain at all. His DIPS figures are precisely where I hoped they'd be, though his HR/9 figure is slightly higher than his career mark, but as Rick noted his K/9 rate has rebounded.

    Another big key is that Arroyo has dropped his BB/9 rate to 1.82 compared to his career mark of 2.86. In both 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 2.37 so the early drop this year in BB/9 has been a great surprise.

    I do expect his BABIP to go up as I don't think he can hold it down near the .260 level all season. If Arroyo can lower his HR/9 while holding his K/9 and BB/9 levels steady, however, it should help balance out his BABIP regressing back to normal a bit.

    EDIT: Adjusted stats through the 8th inning of today's work.
    Also, his K rate is up substantially from last year...he's on pace for around 170-180 for the year. If he's able to continue doing that, there's no question that he'll be successful.

    Seriously, at this point in the season, how can this trade be graded anything other than an A+ for the Reds? Cincinnati hasn't had a starter this dependable since Pete Harnisch in the late 90s, and if Arroyo can maintain his current pace he'll be the Reds best starter since Pete Schourek in '95.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  6. #5
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Whither the Wily Mo updates?
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  7. #6
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    Whither the Wily Mo updates?
    Well, he's barely playing, so there's not much to update. Only 1 AB since last Friday.

    It's really unfortunate, he's going to waste away on the Boston bench.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  8. #7
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    Whither the Wily Mo updates?
    You've harped on the Wily Mo thing for a while now...

    Keeping track of Wily Mo was never--in my eyes anyway--meant to denigrate Bronson's efforts as a Red.
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  9. #8
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS
    You've harped on the Wily Mo thing for a while now...

    Keeping track of Wily Mo was never--in my eyes anyway--meant to denigrate Bronson's efforts as a Red.
    I haven't "harped" on it. I made one comment when the thread started and the one I just made. I don't see how that is harping about it. All I said was that we haven't seen any WMP updates lately which leads me to believe people believe we have gotten the better of that trade so far. Getting a little sensitive about it, aren't you?
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  10. #9
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    I"ve got to question the wisdom of the trade from Boston's standpoint if they didn't plan on letting him play almost everyday. Wily Mo has clearly shown in his career that he produces only when he's getting regular ABs. At the time of the trade I thought it was a good deal for Boston, but if this is how they planned on using him I'm not so sure it wouldn't have been better to keep Bronson around as insurance and as long relief.

  11. #10
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I"ve got to question the wisdom of the trade from Boston's standpoint if they didn't plan on letting him play almost everyday. Wily Mo has clearly shown in his career that he produces only when he's getting regular ABs. At the time of the trade I thought it was a good deal for Boston, but if this is how they planned on using him I'm not so sure it wouldn't have been better to keep Bronson around as insurance and as long relief.
    A team like BOS can afford - both financially and baseball wise - to have him on the roster in his role more than a team like the Reds can. He may win them as many games as he costs them. I've always looked at that deal from the BOS side as Manny insurance. He may play all the games and be as happy as a clam. Or he could pull a Ricky Williams and climb a mountaintop in Tibet. Or he could get hurt. If those things happen, they have Wily Mo to play in his stead. Their defense is about the same and although WMP doesn't hit for average like Manny does, he has more power and probably would hit 30 HRs by accident in Fenway. If he doesn' work out, they could always dump him on someone like Kansas City.
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  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    From a risk/reward or certainty standpoint, the trade still makes sense for the Reds Sox. The Sox simply weren't going to use him as a starter and the loss of Arroyo did/does nto drastically affect their chances to compete this year or in the future. His value to them was a middle reliever or swing starter. The potential gain from Wily Mo reaching his potential however is enormous. If he washes out, they're merely out a swing starter. A loss to be sure, but nothing they can't absorb.

    However, by trading Arroyo they were able to capitalize on his value as a starter on other team's rosters. Still a smart trade by all parties invovled.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Well...the Red Sox also left themselves short for that inevitable moment when Wells spit the bit this year (as he already has, with a DL stint underway). I think Boston may have undervalued him, by quite a lot...

  14. #13
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Maybe they planned and still plan to flip Wily for something else if he gets hot

    He needs to play first though.
    Go Gators!

  15. #14
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Maybe they planned and still plan to flip Wily for something else if he gets hot

    He needs to play first though.
    Maybe they plan on trading him for Dave Williams? :

  16. #15
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo

    Do that deal now
    Go Gators!


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