Homer Bailey pitching at 10:35 AM this morning

[PuffyPig]

The "bunt" debate is a good one.

I've always been one to say that winning takes precent over pretty much everything, with few exceptions, and bunting when you need a baserunner is winning baseball.

But a no hitter is pretty important, and it's not like this game was (at this time) a playoff game or required to make the playoffs.

Still, it's not like Bailey was still pitching, with, in my mind, makes it obvious that you don't bunt. A team no-hitter, in the minors, isn't that big a deal (they may feel differently).

So, under the circumstances, I don't see the bunt being that big a deal. I wouldn't do it. And I wouldn't blame the team for plunking the bunter next time.But I wouldn't really criticize him for playing winning baseball.

[traderumor]

Depends on the performance metrics you're looking at. ERA is one thing, but K rate, HR rate, hits/innings, not to mention all the anecdotal and "soft scouting" information that has come through, has provided all kinds of evidence that Homer is a power pitching prospect worth getting excited about. But hey, you might as well ignore all that because you apparently are already close to certain about things will work out with Homer. Gnosis indeed!

No gnosis needed to make an educated guess as to the likely outcome for Homer. There are cold hard facts stacked against him. There is nothing yet to get excited about. Now, if he hits the end of a full year in Sarasota with his numbers right where they are, shows a consistent domination of hitters at this level, and comes away with a healthy arm, then he is a legit prospect based on performance, with anecdotal and scouting information to match. Right now, the anecdotal and scouting information are inconsistent with the performance.

[cincyinco]

No gnosis needed to make an educated guess as to the likely outcome for Homer. There are cold hard facts stacked against him. There is nothing yet to get excited about. Now, if he hits the end of a full year in Sarasota with his numbers right where they are, shows a consistent domination of hitters at this level, and comes away with a healthy arm, then he is a legit prospect based on performance, with anecdotal and scouting information to match. Right now, the anecdotal and scouting information are inconsistent with the performance.

Come on TR... you know as well as I do scouting isn't all about putting up nice statistical numbers. Its about projection too. Just becuase he hasn't put up the stat lines that you think are worthy, does not mean he doesn't have the ability to be a dominant #1 pitcher at MLB.

Yes the odds are against it. I am aware of the success rate of first round HS pitchers... not the point i want to make. The point I want to make is that I think people on here are expecting Homer to be something he's not. Sort of like Adam Dunn. Some fans just can't appreciate what they are. Homer is a work in progress. He's got some growing to do. Some learning, some adjustments to make. He's not going to flat out dominate every game, every time. Even the best pitchers have one they wish they could call a mulligan on every now and then. But he has potential. And seemingly he has a lot of it. So lets call it for what it is - a guy who may be putting it together.

Someone pointed to his secondary stats, which are extremelly telling to me.
The walk rate is down. The K rate is about the same. The k/bb ratio has, at this point, doubled. The hit per 9 is down. Granted we are still a small sample size, and enthusiasm should probably be tempered. But if he can stay at the current levels for 1/2 a season, I dont know how you can hold him down there any longer. And I dont know how you can't be excited about his status.

[lollipopcurve]

There is nothing yet to get excited about.

Live a little, tr.

[Aronchis]

It isn't easy to live knowing the Reds history. I did that last with Ty Howington and his awesome 2001 season. I was gunhoe in 2002 because I thought Howington would be a key part of the 2003 team. He pitched 2 good games before getting rocked in the next 2 in 02, and I never saw that Howington again as he was lost to shoulder trouble.

Why stop against the trend, unless you believe Jim Bowden was the cause of the pitching draft woes, then go right ahead and dream on, dream on, dream...........

[cincyinco]

It isn't easy to live knowing the Reds history. I did that last with Ty Howington and his awesome 2001 season. I was gunhoe in 2002 because I thought Howington would be a key part of the 2003 team. He pitched 2 good games before getting rocked in the next 2 in 02, and I never saw that Howington again as he was lost to shoulder trouble.

Why stop against the trend, unless you believe Jim Bowden was the cause of the pitching draft woes, then go right ahead and dream on, dream on, dream...........

I know what we all have come to expect regarding injuries to our pitching prospects(Howington, Gruler, Gardner, Pauly, etc) but Homer Bailey is NOT Ty Howington, nor should he be regarded as such. Just becuase it has happened to several or more of our other guys, doesn't mean it will happen with Homer. It might very well, but until then, I dont see why its a problem to get behind the guy. If he gets injured, that will in fact.. well.. suck. But i'm not going to let a hypothetical injury - or the odds - ruin my enjoyment of a good prospect in our system.

[dougdirt]

It still gets to me when people try to say "well with the Reds history...." Thats fine and all, but who is left from the last guy? Are the same coaches in place? Does Homer have the same mechanics? Those answers are, not many....no and no. Some of you can choose to be cautious, and thats fine. I choose to be very optimistic. If you want to express concerns, express them for guys like Votto, Szymanski, Rosales.....guys who are quite a bit older and are struggling, not a guy who is 19 and pitching well.

[flyer85]

I disagree. If Homer is close to the majors like the Reds were acting in spring, he should be having these types of games regularly.

He should be dominating in High A if he is the stud they are selling him to be.

[cincyinco]

He should be dominating in High A if he is the stud they are selling him to be.

What is your defenition of dominating?

Was today's performance good enough?

If he gives up a few hits, is he not dominating?

I guess I'd like to know what everyone expects of a 20 year old kid who's still learning the neauances of the game...

[flyer85]

What is your defenition of dominating?

Was today's performance good enough?

If he gives up a few hits, is he not dominating?

I guess I'd like to know what everyone expects of a 20 year old kid who's still learning the neauances of the game...

Phillip Hughes is a good example. I'd say a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale is dominating.

[Heath]

Judging by this thread - maybe its time for a JA picture right about now.

That seems to be the topic within a topic.



Carry on...

[cincyinco]

Phillip Hughes is a good example. I'd say a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale is dominating.

Okay, thats fine. But Phil Hughes comes with his own set of problems. Health.

In any case, and I'm not being sarcastic here... What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale? Perhaps I can be enlightened.

[traderumor]

Come on TR... you know as well as I do scouting isn't all about putting up nice statistical numbers. Its about projection too. Just becuase he hasn't put up the stat lines that you think are worthy, does not mean he doesn't have the ability to be a dominant #1 pitcher at MLB.

Yes the odds are against it. I am aware of the success rate of first round HS pitchers... not the point i want to make. The point I want to make is that I think people on here are expecting Homer to be something he's not. Sort of like Adam Dunn. Some fans just can't appreciate what they are. Homer is a work in progress. He's got some growing to do. Some learning, some adjustments to make. He's not going to flat out dominate every game, every time. Even the best pitchers have one they wish they could call a mulligan on every now and then. But he has potential. And seemingly he has a lot of it. So lets call it for what it is - a guy who may be putting it together.

Someone pointed to his secondary stats, which are extremelly telling to me.
The walk rate is down. The K rate is about the same. The k/bb ratio has, at this point, doubled. The hit per 9 is down. Granted we are still a small sample size, and enthusiasm should probably be tempered. But if he can stay at the current levels for 1/2 a season, I dont know how you can hold him down there any longer. And I dont know how you can't be excited about his status.

Because there is still an entire year of data showing mediocre performance. Today was his fifth start, of which he now has what, two dominating performances and 3 so-so. If he realizes the nebulous "potential," his performance will start to reflect that, correct? However, go ahead and hype away. As long as the Reds are realistic with what they have and do not believe it themselves, hyping a prospect can't hurt.

[tbball10]

I don't understand all the talk of the Reds' system being cursed. Nothing Homer Bailey has done, or will ever do, is a result of Howington, Gruler, Gardner, Pauly or any other injured Reds' pitching prospect. Homer has been very consistent this year, and I expect him to have a great season, although I'm not going to kill myself if his ERA gets close to 4 like some people on here may do. Most importantly he needs to stay healthy, and keep progressing, because he has serious Major League stuff. Those of you who aren't "excited" about him, obviously have not seen him pitch in person. Because I saw him dominate the Major League Pirates in ST this year for about 3 innings, and it was enough to make any Reds fan very excited about what kind of pitcher Cincinnati will have in a couple years.
Great start for Homer, and let's hope for more to come!!

[Betterread]

Today's performance is really encouraging. I hope to see Bailey go at least 5/6 innings in 4-5 more starts, then gradually see if he can stretch out to 6/7 innings consistently. He is definitely progressing the way the Reds have mapped out his development. If you don't want to take my word for it, talk to player development people in the organization who express optimism, not disappointment regarding Bailey. Casual fans that cannot see his improvement come across as willfullly ignorant.