I happily take credit for the topic within a topic (though not with a pic), probably my only worthwhile contribution to this site in the year and a half I have sullied it with my presence...Originally Posted by Heath
I happily take credit for the topic within a topic (though not with a pic), probably my only worthwhile contribution to this site in the year and a half I have sullied it with my presence...Originally Posted by Heath
Jessica again:
A Homer Bailey gem then debauchery thereafter, what a thread
The start that the Pirates are off to is not indicating a major league teamOriginally Posted by tbball10
Of course, some value objective performance indicators over personal anecdotal evidence that often has the problem of subjectivity, esp. when trying to evaluate the context of "dominate" from a visual perspective during a ST game of a really bad offensive team.
Why is it so wrong to set a legitimate standard of an ERA in the 2s, or at worst the low 3s, a WHIP under 1, a K rate of at least one per inning since we're talking about a power pitcher, and a walk rate around 2 per 9 for someone being touted as a future ace? Is that an unreasonable performance standard? Or is all we do is say "yea, but you gotta see his stuff," and fold our hands and start praying. It seems to me if there's stuff, there will be performance. If not, there isn't "stuff," whatever that means, at least that's going to do our favorite team any good, .
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Appeal to authority, an authority with the Reds org. track record on developing pitching talent? That's rich. And then coupling that with a call of ignorance to those still skeptical about Bailey's chances of fulfilling the great expectations many are placing on his back? That is some funny stuff.Originally Posted by Betterread
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
TR....the past is just that....the past. The same people arent in place. You can say history this and history that, but the same people are not there. So pretty much its just a faulty statement to say it wont happen or isnt likely to happen because the past Reds havent done well with it.
So the Reds replaced each and every person in development? No holdovers? All new philosophies, both mental and mechanical? I know there hasn't been that much turnover. Hopefully, the main folks have been dumped, but to expect that the track record is suddenly wiped clean with an owner and GM that have been on the job for a few months? Come on, Doug. While there have been some pleasant changes thus far, you know there has not been enough time to churn out all the bad apples.Originally Posted by dougdirt
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
No they didnt replace everyone, but Bailey isnt working with everyone. Mental has what to do with having arm injuries? I think pitch counts are a very good idea, and well they obviously werent in place with guys like Howington, where Bailey is at a very strict 90 pitch count this year. I mean who was the last young Reds pitcher to get hurt? Gardner....a year and a half ago? Surely some of the same guys are in place along the line somewhere, but just as much as you want to believe something bad is coming, you need to see that the same chance is that nothing is going to happen.
That's a broad generalization, and a shallow one, I suspect. Do you know the names of all of these employees? If you feel that the Reds organization is that mediocre, why do you support the parent team?Originally Posted by traderumor
I don't need an answer to these questions, I just think you are unaware of how negative and pessimistic your viewpoint is.
I, too, am a little perplexed. This is a new one for me as well. What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale?Originally Posted by cincyinco
My biggest knock on Bailey is that Homer's ERA shows how erratic he truly is. You can argue the validity of ERA as an indicator of a pitcher's ability all you want, but a true ace will have a low ERA because he is not allowing baserunners. Homer's ERA doesn't strike me as a true ace material.
Last year, at low A, Homer's ERA was well over 4.00. At the SAME level, a 19 year old Josh Beckett had an ERA of 2.12 (in the same league Homer pitched in). This year, Homer finally has gotten his ERA down to 3.08 at High-A. Beckett, at High-A (Florida State League - same as Bailey) in 66 innings had an ERA of 1.23. Beckett then went to AA, pitched 74 more innings and posted a 1.82 ERA at AA. When Bailey starts putting up Beckett-like numbers, and can sustain them over the length of an entire season, then I'll get excited. Felix Hernandez- the Seattle phenom - had an ERA of 2.74 in 92 innings at High A (He was 19 years old). Matt Cain of the Giants had a 1.86 ERA in 73 innings at High A (He was 19-20 at the time).
To compare to current Reds pitchers, Aaron Harang had a 3.32 ERA in 157 innings in High-A. Claussen, over a two season span, pitched 108 innings at High-A and posted a 2.92 ERA. But even Elizardo Ramirez put up a 3.78 ERA in 157 innings in the FSL. Now, to be fair those three were probably 20 or 21 when they pitched at High-A, but Bailey will be turning 20 in just a couple of weeks, and I seriously doubt that on his 20th birthday, he'll suddenly turn in to Cy Young. A true ace at High A ought to have an ERA that hovers right around the 2.25 mark
Whenever I get too giddy about Homer's performances, I remind myself that even Dave Williams posted a sub-3.00 ERA and K'd 193 in A-ball.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
MikeS21, I think the thing is that Bailey is not being allowed to pitch completely how he wants to pitch. His game the other day was the first time all season they told him to go out and throw his fast ball first and look what he did. That means all season prior, he had been working with his lesser pitches. Homer is still developing his secondary pitches, and they are coming along well.
I'll answer them anyhow. Honestly, my support of the Reds has nothing to do with the quality of the organization. Like many, when I first started paying attention, the BRM was in full bloom. I am a fan for life, regardless of who is in charge, but then that really has nothing to do with nothing, unless one simply chooses their sports teams like stocks.Originally Posted by Betterread
Knowing names of certain employees really has no bearing on making a rather simple evaluation of the state of the Reds org., which as I already mentioned, has not had the new regime in place long enough to make too many sweeping changes. There were several moves made after Krivsky was hired, but most of the key employees were retained in some capacity. The coaching staffs were essentially already in place. But you do have me caught in one point--I have not done an organizational chart and an evaluation of each and every employee.
I only have about five years running of a barren pitching development program to go on and consistently one of the worst major league pitching staffs for a similar amount of time. Pardon me for being unimpressed by one performance from an ever increasingly hyped prospect being developed by an organization still bragging about Tom Browning. I hope as much as anyone that Homer lives up to the expectations. But do I have to make him into something contrary to the evidence thus far to hold out that hope? Or would it be better to say something along the lines of "wow, hopefully this is a sign of dramatic improvement and not just a night where he was on"?
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Homer Bailey stole my lunch box on tuesday.
Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
can you say wallpaper!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.
Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008
Bailey Cruises Through Tigers
People have been wondering when things are going to click for Reds pitching phenom Homer Bailey, and yesterday they did.
The high Class A Sarasota righthander threw six hitless innings and had nine strikeouts but got a no-decision as Sarasota defeated Lakeland 2-0.
"One of those days that we all lay in bed and think about where everything clicks," Sarasota pitching coach Ed Hodge said. "If not for the pitch count, who knows what he would have accomplished?"
After going 8-4, 4.43 with a 125-62 strikeout-walk ratio in 104 innings last season for low Class A Dayton, Bailey has focused on improving his changeup. He has a mid-90s fastball and a 12-to-6 curveball that could be considered a 70 on the 20-to-80 scale. Last night, he had a third weapon in his arsenal.
"Best changeup I have seen him have yet. When you are going 93-97 in A-ball, you don’t need a heck of a lot more to dominate," Hodge said. "He commanded the changeup, and it is something he has worked extremely hard on. He has really bought into and knows it is something he has got to have."
Bailey was a first-round pick in 2004 out of LaGrange (Texas) High and was Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year. He has been ranked as the Reds' No. 1 prospect the last two years, and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation in the big leagues.
"The biggest thing with a guy that throws that hard is to have the change near the plate," Hodge said. "A power pitcher becomes more of a power pitcher when he develops a change."
--MATT MEYERS
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...ws/261164.html
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