Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

[MasonBuzz3]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.

[Falls City Beer]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.

BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.

I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.

Reds seem about right to me.

[Tommyjohn25]

Given my expectations of the club before the season started, I'll take that percentage as a compliment.

[vaticanplum]

Poor Pirates.

[Blimpie]

Poor Pirates.

Funny how the Marlins have but one more win than the Pirates--yet, the Marlins have almost a 15% better chance of making the playoffs.

[oneupper]

Since 4 out of 16 teams MUST make the playoffs, 25% would be "even money", that is if all teams were equal.

31% isn't that much of a compliment to the REDS. I would label it as an insult to the Cards, though.

[pedro]

I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started

current 2006 World Series odds
----------------------

    New York Yankees          6-1         Los Angeles Dodgers     40-1
    St. Louis Cardinals       7-1         San Francisco Giants    40-1
    Boston Red Sox            8-1         Texas Rangers           50-1
    Chicago White Sox        12-1         Arizona Diamondbacks    75-1
    Houston Astros           12-1         Baltimore Orioles       75-1
    LA Angels of Anaheim     12-1         Cincinnati Reds         75-1
    Atlanta Braves           15-1         Detroit Tigers          75-1
    Cleveland Indians        15-1         Milwaukee Brewers       75-1
    Oakland Athletics        15-1         Toronto Blue Jays       75-1
    Chicago Cubs             25-1         Washington Nationals    75-1
    Florida Marlins          25-1         Seattle Mariners       100-1
    Minnesota Twins          25-1         Colorado Rockies       125-1
    Philadelphia Phillies    25-1         Pittsburgh Pirates     125-1
    New York Mets            30-1         Tampa Bay Devil Rays   250-1
    San Diego Padres         30-1         Kansas City Royals     500-1

[Reds Nd2]

BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.

I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.

Reds seem about right to me.

The PECOTA-adjusted version shows the Cards at %41, the Astro's at %36, the Reds at %25, the Pirates at %.44951, and the Brewres at %50. Seems someone loves the Brewers and loathes the Pirates.

[IslandRed]

That's a fun report, and I've referred to it many times. It's all stats-driven and computer simulated, so no one's subjectivity is involved. But it's a lot more meaningful in August than April. Small sample sizes, regression to the mean and all that.

[Reds Nd2]

I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started.

My guess is they will be there again before all is said and done.