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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

  1. #1
    Member MasonBuzz3's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
    BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Quote Originally Posted by MasonBuzz3
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
    BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.
    BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.

    I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.

    Reds seem about right to me.

  4. #3
    Moderator Tommyjohn25's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Given my expectations of the club before the season started, I'll take that percentage as a compliment.
    Benzinger backing and calling! And the 1990 world championship series belongs to the Cincinnati Reds!

  5. #4
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Poor Pirates.

  6. #5
    Joe Oliver love-child Blimpie's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum
    Poor Pirates.
    Funny how the Marlins have but one more win than the Pirates--yet, the Marlins have almost a 15% better chance of making the playoffs.
    "Booing on opening day is like telling grandma her house smells like old lady."--WOY

  7. #6
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Since 4 out of 16 teams MUST make the playoffs, 25% would be "even money", that is if all teams were equal.

    31% isn't that much of a compliment to the REDS. I would label it as an insult to the Cards, though.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  8. #7
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started

    current 2006 World Series odds
    ----------------------

    Code:
        New York Yankees          6-1         Los Angeles Dodgers     40-1
        St. Louis Cardinals       7-1         San Francisco Giants    40-1
        Boston Red Sox            8-1         Texas Rangers           50-1
        Chicago White Sox        12-1         Arizona Diamondbacks    75-1
        Houston Astros           12-1         Baltimore Orioles       75-1
        LA Angels of Anaheim     12-1         Cincinnati Reds         75-1
        Atlanta Braves           15-1         Detroit Tigers          75-1
        Cleveland Indians        15-1         Milwaukee Brewers       75-1
        Oakland Athletics        15-1         Toronto Blue Jays       75-1
        Chicago Cubs             25-1         Washington Nationals    75-1
        Florida Marlins          25-1         Seattle Mariners       100-1
        Minnesota Twins          25-1         Colorado Rockies       125-1
        Philadelphia Phillies    25-1         Pittsburgh Pirates     125-1
        New York Mets            30-1         Tampa Bay Devil Rays   250-1
        San Diego Padres         30-1         Kansas City Royals     500-1
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  9. #8
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.

    I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.

    Reds seem about right to me.
    The PECOTA-adjusted version shows the Cards at %41, the Astro's at %36, the Reds at %25, the Pirates at %.44951, and the Brewres at %50. Seems someone loves the Brewers and loathes the Pirates.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  10. #9
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    That's a fun report, and I've referred to it many times. It's all stats-driven and computer simulated, so no one's subjectivity is involved. But it's a lot more meaningful in August than April. Small sample sizes, regression to the mean and all that.
    Not all who wander are lost

  11. #10
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started.
    My guess is they will be there again before all is said and done.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.


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