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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds Player of the Month for April 2006?

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195. You may not vote on this poll
  • Bronson Arroyo (4-0, 2.34 ERA, 30 K, .92 WHIP)

    124 63.59%
  • Todd Coffey (1-0, 0.60 ERA, 7 Holds, 11 K, 1.27 WHIP)

    6 3.08%
  • David Weathers (8 Saves, 3.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

    0 0%
  • Aaron Harang (4-1, 4.35 ERA, 33 K, 1.25 WHIP)

    1 0.51%
  • Adam Dunn (9 HR, 17 RBI, 25 Runs, .265/.432/.614)

    9 4.62%
  • Edwin Encarnacion (3 HR, 24 RBI, 10 2Bs, .288/.387/.550)

    20 10.26%
  • Ryan Freel (8 SBs, .263/.434/.329)

    0 0%
  • Brandon Phillips (3 HR, 22 RBI, .349/.382/.587)

    34 17.44%
  • Scott Hatteberg (.305/.431/.441)

    0 0%
  • Austin Kearns (5 HR, 18 RBI, .288/.387/.527)

    0 0%
  • other

    1 0.51%
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Thread: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

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  1. #1
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Vote for the Reds Player Of The Month.

    My vote goes to Arroyo.
    Last edited by Jpup; 05-01-2006 at 02:50 AM.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  2. #2
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Adam Dunn.

    VORP: 11.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    MLV: 8.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    EQA: .326 (Team Rank- 1st)
    EQR: 18.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    RAR: 10.5 (Team Rank -1st)
    RAP: 7.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    RARP: 10.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    Runs Created: 21.6 (Team Rank- 1st)
    RC/27: 9.54 (Team Rank- 1st)
    SECA: .646 (Team Rank- 1st)

    Honorable Mention: Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Todd Coffey.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  3. #3
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Adam Dunn.

    VORP: 11.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    MLV: 8.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    EQA: .326 (Team Rank- 1st)
    EQR: 18.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    RAR: 10.5 (Team Rank -1st)
    RAP: 7.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    RARP: 10.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
    Runs Created: 21.6 (Team Rank- 1st)
    RC/27: 9.54 (Team Rank- 1st)
    SECA: .646 (Team Rank- 1st)

    Honorable Mention: Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Todd Coffey.

    Do you have Arroyo compared to the rest of the team?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  4. #4
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup
    Do you have Arroyo compared to the rest of the team?
    Don't need to compare Arroyo to the rest of the team at this point considering his numbers...

    DIPS: 3.86
    BABIP: .213

    Arroyo has been exceptionally lucky thusfar but nothing I didn't expect the first time through the league.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  5. #5
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Don't need to compare Arroyo to the rest of the team at this point considering his numbers...

    DIPS: 3.86
    BABIP: .213

    Arroyo has been exceptionally lucky thusfar but nothing I didn't expect the first time through the league.
    What do you expect him to do for the rest of the season?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  6. #6
    Member The Baumer's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Edwin has the highest VLOOP in the major leagues. He gets my vote.

  7. #7
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Baumer
    Edwin has the highest VLOOP in the major leagues. He gets my vote.
    Can you explain what VLOOP is? I'm not exactly privy to that stat.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  8. #8
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I chose Brandon Phillips almost right away before thinking about Bronson Arroyo, but now looking at the various stats, it could be any number of players. Maybe we should have had one more options...The Team!

  9. #9
    Who Dey!! GridironGrace's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Im gonna give my Vote to Eric Milton.

    After the season he had last year who thought for a second that his first 2 Starts would be AWESOME outings in which we won. I think he helped us with that, gave the team the BELIEF that they could do well and win with what we have.

    A confidence boost that propelled us through the month of April IMO.
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  10. #10
    Can he be stopped?
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are?

    I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).
    Tom Shearn... who knew?

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  11. #11
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunner44
    Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are?

    I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).
    VORP- Value Over Replacement Player
    MLV- Marginal Lineup Value
    EQA- Equivalent Average
    EQR- Equivalent Runs
    RAR- Runs Above Replacement
    RAP- Runs Above Position
    RARP- Runs Above Replacement Position
    RC- Runs Created
    RC/27- Runs Created per 27 Outs
    SECA- Secondary Average

    DIPS- Defense Independent Pitching Stat
    BABIP- Batting Average on Balls in Play

    What do you expect him to do for the rest of the season?
    Jpup, there are two schools of thought on that question:

    1. Arroyo's BABIP numbers will regress to the mean while his HR rate remains high.

    2. Arroyo is the kind of pitcher whose stuff will allow him to produce lower than average BABIP results and his HR rate will drop significantly.

    Right now Arroyo's DIPS rate is 1.65, meaning that his DIPS is 1.65 times his ERA. Here's a list of the ten MLB Starting Pitchers with a DIPS rate higher than 1.60:

    Jose Contreras (2.66)
    Taylor Buchholz (2.34)
    John Thomson (2.27)
    Greg Maddux (2.04)
    Chris Carpenter (1.96)
    Mark Buehrle (1.81)
    Brian Bannister (1.80)
    Scott Elarton (1.67)
    Bronson Arroyo (1.65)
    Brandon Webb (1.60)

    For the most part, some good names to be sure but every one of them currently boasts an ERA much lower than what we should reasonably expect. From 2000 to 2005, only one MLB SP finished a season with a DIPS rate at or above 1.60 (Roger Clemens 2005- 1.61). Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that every player on that list will tighten their DIPS rate to get closer to 1.00. How much closer is the question.

    If scenario 1 above plays out, Arroyo's ERA will increase to tighten the gap. That's doesn't necessarily mean that Arroyo's DIPS will increase, but if his BABIP snaps back hard in the other direction while his HR rate remains high we may end up with a guy who'll be on the other side of the DIPS rate fence (i.e. an ERA higher than his DIPS).

    If scenario 2 plays out, Arroyo's DIPS will drop and end up more in line with his current ERA. That's the best case scenario, but it's also the most unlikely scenario because it involves on us assuming that Arroyo is a historical outlier.

    There is a third scenario in which Arroyo's BABIP increases but his HR rate decreases while his K and BB rate remains constant. That would also most likely lower his DIPS rate- but not to the extreme of scenario 2.

    Based on his performance history coupled with his fast start, I'll go out on a limb and suggest an amalgam of scenarios 1 and 3. If that occurs, we'll likely see Arroyo's ERA right around the 4.00 mark for the season. That's better than what I'd projected initially and that projection assumes that his K rate remains constant. If that K rate drops, we're off and running for a revision again.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  12. #12
    Member The Baumer's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunner44
    Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are?

    I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).
    VLOOP is a very complicated stat I invented whose sole purpose is to give Edwin Encarnacion the league lead in VLOOP.

  13. #13
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Baumer
    VLOOP is a very complicated stat I invented whose sole purpose is to give Edwin Encarnacion the league lead in VLOOP.
    .

  14. #14
    He sure could hit HalMorrisRules's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I chose Bronson. I think that the Reds and Bronson have a true symbiotic relationship. The Reds needed him to bring an AL East hardened pitching mentality and he needed this team to start out well so he wouldnt be thinking about "what could have been" in Boston. He surely hasnt been given any reason between the white lines to feel like this isnt a good situation so far this season. If both sides of the relationship continue to feed off the other then this can be a very interesting summer.

  15. #15
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Can I vote "All"?

    It's about
    the ball,
    the bat,
    the mitt,
    the bases,
    and the fans


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