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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds Player of the Month for April 2006?

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  • Bronson Arroyo (4-0, 2.34 ERA, 30 K, .92 WHIP)

    124 63.59%
  • Todd Coffey (1-0, 0.60 ERA, 7 Holds, 11 K, 1.27 WHIP)

    6 3.08%
  • David Weathers (8 Saves, 3.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

    0 0%
  • Aaron Harang (4-1, 4.35 ERA, 33 K, 1.25 WHIP)

    1 0.51%
  • Adam Dunn (9 HR, 17 RBI, 25 Runs, .265/.432/.614)

    9 4.62%
  • Edwin Encarnacion (3 HR, 24 RBI, 10 2Bs, .288/.387/.550)

    20 10.26%
  • Ryan Freel (8 SBs, .263/.434/.329)

    0 0%
  • Brandon Phillips (3 HR, 22 RBI, .349/.382/.587)

    34 17.44%
  • Scott Hatteberg (.305/.431/.441)

    0 0%
  • Austin Kearns (5 HR, 18 RBI, .288/.387/.527)

    0 0%
  • other

    1 0.51%
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Thread: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

  1. #16
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds
    I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become.
    Saying that Arroyo was the team's most valuable player in April doesn't take away from what Dunn accomplishes. It merely acknowledges that there are others on this team who play an as-if-not-more vital role than Dunn plays. This team doesn't approach 17 wins in April with a Justin Germano, or whoever else was tabbed to be the starter before Arroyo arrived.

    And if Arroyo and Dunn continue doing what they've been doing throughout the entire season, Arroyo will get team MVP hands down.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I chose Arroyo not because of an absolute greatest value comparison, but because we could pretty much expect the performance of Dunn (who clearly contributed the most), but Arroyo really gave us an unexpected 'boost' and defined our month. But also, it isn't simply a case of the best month of his career, which I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case for Phillips.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
    Designated Threadkiller LincolnparkRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    To be different, I went with Coffey since he will hopefully be the closer of the future plus Narron has put him in some tight situations so far this year and Todd has come through all of them.
    Climbing down from the bridge, but keeping the torch lit until Dusty's fate is settled

  5. #19
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunner44
    Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are?

    I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).
    VORP- Value Over Replacement Player
    MLV- Marginal Lineup Value
    EQA- Equivalent Average
    EQR- Equivalent Runs
    RAR- Runs Above Replacement
    RAP- Runs Above Position
    RARP- Runs Above Replacement Position
    RC- Runs Created
    RC/27- Runs Created per 27 Outs
    SECA- Secondary Average

    DIPS- Defense Independent Pitching Stat
    BABIP- Batting Average on Balls in Play

    What do you expect him to do for the rest of the season?
    Jpup, there are two schools of thought on that question:

    1. Arroyo's BABIP numbers will regress to the mean while his HR rate remains high.

    2. Arroyo is the kind of pitcher whose stuff will allow him to produce lower than average BABIP results and his HR rate will drop significantly.

    Right now Arroyo's DIPS rate is 1.65, meaning that his DIPS is 1.65 times his ERA. Here's a list of the ten MLB Starting Pitchers with a DIPS rate higher than 1.60:

    Jose Contreras (2.66)
    Taylor Buchholz (2.34)
    John Thomson (2.27)
    Greg Maddux (2.04)
    Chris Carpenter (1.96)
    Mark Buehrle (1.81)
    Brian Bannister (1.80)
    Scott Elarton (1.67)
    Bronson Arroyo (1.65)
    Brandon Webb (1.60)

    For the most part, some good names to be sure but every one of them currently boasts an ERA much lower than what we should reasonably expect. From 2000 to 2005, only one MLB SP finished a season with a DIPS rate at or above 1.60 (Roger Clemens 2005- 1.61). Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that every player on that list will tighten their DIPS rate to get closer to 1.00. How much closer is the question.

    If scenario 1 above plays out, Arroyo's ERA will increase to tighten the gap. That's doesn't necessarily mean that Arroyo's DIPS will increase, but if his BABIP snaps back hard in the other direction while his HR rate remains high we may end up with a guy who'll be on the other side of the DIPS rate fence (i.e. an ERA higher than his DIPS).

    If scenario 2 plays out, Arroyo's DIPS will drop and end up more in line with his current ERA. That's the best case scenario, but it's also the most unlikely scenario because it involves on us assuming that Arroyo is a historical outlier.

    There is a third scenario in which Arroyo's BABIP increases but his HR rate decreases while his K and BB rate remains constant. That would also most likely lower his DIPS rate- but not to the extreme of scenario 2.

    Based on his performance history coupled with his fast start, I'll go out on a limb and suggest an amalgam of scenarios 1 and 3. If that occurs, we'll likely see Arroyo's ERA right around the 4.00 mark for the season. That's better than what I'd projected initially and that projection assumes that his K rate remains constant. If that K rate drops, we're off and running for a revision again.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    --Ted Williams

  6. #20
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds
    Arroyo, hands down. It has been a long time since the Reds have had a pitcher have a month similar to Arroyo's. Simply put, Arroyo's addition has given a big boost to the rest of the staff and, apparently the team.

    I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become.

    Or, am I the only one to notice his recent slump?
    Oh please. Spare me the rhetoric. Noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April has nothing to do with anything other than noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April.

    Arroyo had a very good month as did a bunch of other guys. And yes, we haven't seen that kind of month from a Reds pitcher for a long time. Heck, we have to go all the way back to Aaron Harang's May 2005 to find it. That's almost a whole year!
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  7. #21
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Oh please. Spare me the rhetoric. Noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April has nothing to do with anything other than noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April.

    Arroyo had a very good month as did a bunch of other guys. And yes, we haven't seen that kind of month from a Reds pitcher for a long time. Heck, we have to go all the way back to Aaron Harang's May 2005 to find it. That's almost a whole year!
    Pretty much what I figured I would get. Thanks for that.

    Dunn had a good month, but didn't stand out notably from the rest of the Reds hitters. He lead the Reds in TB, SLG and HRs, but only in HRs was the difference over the next guy signficant.

    Arroyo, on the other hand, led or was second in almost every category for a starting pitcher this last month. He wasn't just better than the other guys, he was significantly better.

    Dunn was the best hitter, for sure. I just don't see the need to shout it at every opportunity at the expense of a player who was so much better than the rest at his position for the previous month.

  8. #22
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds
    Pretty much what I figured I would get. Thanks for that.

    Dunn had a good month, but didn't stand out notably from the rest of the Reds hitters. He lead the Reds in TB, SLG and HRs, but only in HRs was the difference over the next guy signficant.

    Arroyo, on the other hand, led or was second in almost every category for a starting pitcher this last month. He wasn't just better than the other guys, he was significantly better.

    Dunn was the best hitter, for sure. I just don't see the need to shout it at every opportunity at the expense of a player who was so much better than the rest at his position for the previous month.
    You make some good points. I was *this* close to picking Arroyo myself, but he spit the bit against the Cardinals when given a lead.

    Yeah, I know; I'm pretty harsh on pitchers. But you can't get beat by the John Rodriguezes & David Ecksteins of the world. I actually have no problem with the back-to-backers by Pujols and Rolen.

    But obviously, Dunn and Arroyo were neck and neck.

  9. #23
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by LincolnparkRed
    To be different, I went with Coffey since he will hopefully be the closer of the future plus Narron has put him in some tight situations so far this year and Todd has come through all of them.
    Not to take away from others on this team with a 17-8 April... Todd Coffey has been as close to perfect (for his job) as anyone else on this team in the month of April.

    Are there any other closers or hold-guys who have comparable stats in MLB right now?

    One month... sure. But show me another bullpen guy in MLB who has comparable stats. 0.60 ERA in 15 IP. Quite impressive and most likely to be overlooked on the REDS team.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  10. #24
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966
    Not to take away from others on this team with a 17-8 April... Todd Coffey has been as close to perfect (for his job) as anyone else on this team in the month of April.

    Are there any other closers or hold-guys who have comparable stats in MLB right now?

    One month... sure. But show me another bullpen guy in MLB who has comparable stats. 0.60 ERA in 15 IP. Quite impressive and most likely to be overlooked on the REDS team.
    The good news is that this is actually a debate. I'm trying to remember the last time we were debating over players having GOOD months.

  11. #25
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966
    Not to take away from others on this team with a 17-8 April... Todd Coffey has been as close to perfect (for his job) as anyone else on this team in the month of April.

    Are there any other closers or hold-guys who have comparable stats in MLB right now?

    One month... sure. But show me another bullpen guy in MLB who has comparable stats. 0.60 ERA in 15 IP. Quite impressive and most likely to be overlooked on the REDS team.
    Coffey's been one of the three or four best relievers in baseball so far this season, and he's easily been the Reds most valuable reliever. Weathers has the fancy saves numbers, but it's been Coffey getting the Reds through those 7th and 8th inning jams to preserve the save opportunity for Weathers anyway, and Coffey's likely been used in far more crucial situations than anybody else in the pen, Weathers included.

    Boston's Papelbon and New York's Duaner Sanchez have arguably been more valuable relief pitchers in baseball this season, but Coffey's nipping at their heels.
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  12. #26
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I voted Bronson Arroyo.

    His BABIP numbers suggest he's getting lucky -- but watching him pitch is a little revealing on this subject, as he seems to be inducing awful contact from hitters. That suggests to me, anecdotally, that he's really on his game and that his BABIP might be more a combination of luck and excellent stuff, as opposed to outright luck that some pitchers get with "at 'em" balls and sharp liners that the defense bails them out on.

    His K/9 numbers are much more in line with previous seasons in his career, so as of right now the debtate of 2004 v. 2005 Bronson seems to be indicating 2005 Arroyo was the aberration -- but it's still a little early to make that determination.

    However, it's worth mentioning that tonight's start at the GABP will be only Bronson's 2nd start at home. His previous outing at home was good, but slightly less dominant than he's been on the road in Milwaukee and Washtington (6.2 IP, 5R, 3ER, 2 HR, 7K). How he pitches at home will dictate, greatly, the kind of season Arroyo has.

    Still, the question is who had the best April, and there's no question that player is Bronson Arroyo. Honorable mentions to Dunn, Phillips and Easy E.
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  13. #27
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunner44
    Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are?

    I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).
    VLOOP is a very complicated stat I invented whose sole purpose is to give Edwin Encarnacion the league lead in VLOOP.

  14. #28
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Man, what that list show me how special the month of April really was for the Reds. Most amazing is Griffey is not even in the top 10. If you would have told me that before the season started. Just impressive. I voted for Arroyo though as he has been better then expected and a pitcher that at least gives us some credibility. We have 2 guys right now we can win everytime they pitch. You know what I mean. go Reds
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  15. #29
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds
    Pretty much what I figured I would get. Thanks for that.

    Dunn had a good month, but didn't stand out notably from the rest of the Reds hitters. He lead the Reds in TB, SLG and HRs, but only in HRs was the difference over the next guy signficant.
    I'm not sure you'd understand how much better Adam Dunn was versus the rest of the Reds hitters, but when a guy ranks 6th in the NL in Equivalent Runs it's a pretty darn big deal. When he puts up a .326 EQA over 111 PA while the only other starting position player (Phillips) on the team to post an EQA over .300 has only 68 PA, that's a pretty darn big deal as well.

    That being said, it's immaterial. Most productive player is most productive player. That doesn't denigrate what Arroyo did in April. It's just a fact.

    Arroyo, on the other hand, led or was second in almost every category for a starting pitcher this last month. He wasn't just better than the other guys, he was significantly better.
    That says everything about the other pitchers on the team (sans Coffey- who was great) and virtually nothing about Bronson Arroyo.

    Dunn was the best hitter, for sure. I just don't see the need to shout it at every opportunity at the expense of a player who was so much better than the rest at his position for the previous month.
    At the "expense of a player"? Go back and read my original post. Dunn was the most productive player on the team in April. Bronson Arroyo was first on my list of Honorable Mentions. I'd considered Arroyo until I noticed that his ERA was entirely out of line with his DIPS (a product of an awful HR rate, BTW).

    Production doesn't play favorites. Either you added more value to your team than everyone else or you didn't. As soon as that more productive guy ends up being someone other than Dunn, you'll see me saying so. Until then, you won't.

    And as for "so much better"...

    Arroyo ranks 20th in the NL in DIPS at 3.89. The guy right behind him in 21st place at 4.00 DIPS is named Aaron Harang. One guy was lucky in April. One guy wasn't. You seem to think that being lucky means the former produced at a significantly higher rate than did the latter. I don't.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  16. #30
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I voted for Harang because I felt he stepped it up against St. Louis by outdueling Carpenter and coming back on short rest and pitching a complete game shutout against Milwaukee. Both teams are definitely ones that the Reds have had trouble with and stepping it up when the team needs you the most is why he got my vote. He did have the one real rough start of Opening Day but everyone has their day every now and then.


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