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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds Player of the Month for April 2006?

Voters
195. You may not vote on this poll
  • Bronson Arroyo (4-0, 2.34 ERA, 30 K, .92 WHIP)

    124 63.59%
  • Todd Coffey (1-0, 0.60 ERA, 7 Holds, 11 K, 1.27 WHIP)

    6 3.08%
  • David Weathers (8 Saves, 3.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

    0 0%
  • Aaron Harang (4-1, 4.35 ERA, 33 K, 1.25 WHIP)

    1 0.51%
  • Adam Dunn (9 HR, 17 RBI, 25 Runs, .265/.432/.614)

    9 4.62%
  • Edwin Encarnacion (3 HR, 24 RBI, 10 2Bs, .288/.387/.550)

    20 10.26%
  • Ryan Freel (8 SBs, .263/.434/.329)

    0 0%
  • Brandon Phillips (3 HR, 22 RBI, .349/.382/.587)

    34 17.44%
  • Scott Hatteberg (.305/.431/.441)

    0 0%
  • Austin Kearns (5 HR, 18 RBI, .288/.387/.527)

    0 0%
  • other

    1 0.51%
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Thread: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

  1. #31
    Member The Baumer's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Mr. DIPS foiled again! We'll get you next time Arroyo!

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  3. #32
    Cruisin' for trouble
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    SteelSD -

    Like many here, I grew up spending hours scrutinizing every detail of just about every box score I could get my hands on. Sunday came and I could spend half the day looking through the league leaders. Of course, this was mostly during the Big Red Machine days, so they were pretty easy to look at.

    Spent a lot of time playing most baseball simulations and continuing to feed the stat Jones. Loved the stuff. Couldn't get enough.

    But, what I've seen from many over the past couple of years has soured the milk a bit. Stats can certainly be used to prop up an argument and make the poster look like a genius and the guy you are responding too like a buffoon. Of course, it can go both ways, ad nauseum. Why you feel the need to beat every contrary opinion over the head with the bat of stats is beyond me.

    Love Adam Dunn. Can't believe what an extraordinary ballplayer he is and can't wait to see what he becomes in the next few years. Hope he retires a Red. He had a great month and deserves some recognition.

    Kudos.

    But, the original post was who people considered the MVP for April. Arroyo had an outstanding and, mostly, unexpected month. He deserves the recognition. At this point, nearly 63% of others feel the same.

    Nobody's slamming Adam, least of all me. But, when I sent in my original post, I was expecting such a response. It just doesn't have to be about stats and/or the defense of Adam Dunn all channels, all the time.

  4. #33
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds
    SteelSD -

    Like many here, I grew up spending hours scrutinizing every detail of just about every box score I could get my hands on. Sunday came and I could spend half the day looking through the league leaders. Of course, this was mostly during the Big Red Machine days, so they were pretty easy to look at.

    Spent a lot of time playing most baseball simulations and continuing to feed the stat Jones. Loved the stuff. Couldn't get enough.

    But, what I've seen from many over the past couple of years has soured the milk a bit. Stats can certainly be used to prop up an argument and make the poster look like a genius and the guy you are responding too like a buffoon. Of course, it can go both ways, ad nauseum. Why you feel the need to beat every contrary opinion over the head with the bat of stats is beyond me.
    This is a discussion of your own choosing. It would not exist had you not responded in the following fashion:

    "I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become."

    I'm not sure why you felt that was necessary. The initial post in this thread asked who we felt was the Reds' MVP for April. Over the course of a calendar month, I equate MVP with who was most productive for the team. That's it. No "worshipping". No "demi-god" status. Nada. A simple post explaining who was the most productive player in April for the Reds.

    Before continuing with this discussion, you need to ask yourself a simple question:

    If Adam Dunn weren't the most productive Reds player in April, do you honestly think I'd vote for him knowing how many other players had an excellent month?

    Seriously, knowing my slant in utilizing objective performance data coupled with the skill of others around these parts in sniffing out BS, do you really think I can create some bias-propelled snowjob argument that would falsely prop up Adam Dunn as the most productive player on the team regardless of his actual performance? If so, then you're vastly overestimating my skill level. The stuff I'm looking at is obvious. I'm unable to "twist" it. I can't possibly hide somone else's productivity because it's readily available to anyone who cares to look.

    You don't equate "most productive" with "MVP"? Fine. I don't have a problem with you using more subjective criteria, whatever it is. In fact, I don't have an issue with any one of the 96 posters who voted for Bronson Arroyo regardless of their reasoning. Do I think they're wrong? Yep. But it's a freakin' month so who cares?

    That being said, your initial post was nothing more than a rhetoric-laden attack and it was treated as such. My sin was to point out that Adam Dunn was more productive than any other Reds player in April. If someone posted such and was wrong, then you might have reason to question their motivation. But that wasn't the case so your suggestion that my selection was based on bias was misplaced. And your current inference that I've been doing nothing but lying with numbers is beyond misplaced.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  5. #34
    Member harangatang's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds
    SteelSD -

    Like many here, I grew up spending hours scrutinizing every detail of just about every box score I could get my hands on. Sunday came and I could spend half the day looking through the league leaders. Of course, this was mostly during the Big Red Machine days, so they were pretty easy to look at.

    Spent a lot of time playing most baseball simulations and continuing to feed the stat Jones. Loved the stuff. Couldn't get enough.

    But, what I've seen from many over the past couple of years has soured the milk a bit. Stats can certainly be used to prop up an argument and make the poster look like a genius and the guy you are responding too like a buffoon. Of course, it can go both ways, ad nauseum. Why you feel the need to beat every contrary opinion over the head with the bat of stats is beyond me.

    Love Adam Dunn. Can't believe what an extraordinary ballplayer he is and can't wait to see what he becomes in the next few years. Hope he retires a Red. He had a great month and deserves some recognition.

    Kudos.

    But, the original post was who people considered the MVP for April. Arroyo had an outstanding and, mostly, unexpected month. He deserves the recognition. At this point, nearly 63% of others feel the same.

    Nobody's slamming Adam, least of all me. But, when I sent in my original post, I was expecting such a response. It just doesn't have to be about stats and/or the defense of Adam Dunn all channels, all the time.
    I agree 110%, I think Adam Dunn is an awesome player. I think what's bad is the fact is that there is no explanation of anything and the post earlier on about the meanings of the SABR acronyms is quite comical. How can you argue against a statistic when you don't know what it stands for, let alone what the statistic means or how it can be useful. I always keep an open mind to learning new things and maybe what Steel is saying is useful but for all I know it could be irrelevant. Then most typically as in the past (not this thread surprisingly) follows the cliches of something related to feces or something degrading.

    The section on Sabermetrics in the FAQ has been taken down and I guess we'll have to all go buy a Bill James book just to figure out if what Steel is saying is correct. But you know what I say who cares and I'll enjoy this season of baseball watching the Reds in the way I know "best".
    Last edited by harangatang; 05-01-2006 at 11:24 PM.

  6. #35
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Baumer
    Edwin has the highest VLOOP in the major leagues. He gets my vote.
    Can you explain what VLOOP is? I'm not exactly privy to that stat.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  7. #36
    Member The Baumer's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Baumer
    VLOOP is a very complicated stat I invented whose sole purpose is to give Edwin Encarnacion the league lead in VLOOP.
    .

  8. #37
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I'll admit I am a casual fan (college basketball is my sport), but I have a question about stats.

    Why are Arroyo's
    DIPS: 3.86
    BABIP: .213
    important? Shouldn't his ERA (which is 2.06 after today's start), wins, and possibly WHIP be his sole measures of productivity as they are the only stats which really affect the outcome? After all, even if he is "lucky", why should his luck be counted against him?

    Im not a big stat guy, so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

    BTW, I voted for Phillips simply due to his unexpected production.

  9. #38
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by harangatang
    I agree 110%, I think Adam Dunn is an awesome player. I think what's bad is the fact is that there is no explanation of anything and the post earlier on about the meanings of the SABR acronyms is quite comical. How can you argue against a statistic when you don't know what it stands for, let alone what the statistic means or how it can be useful. I always keep an open mind to learning new things and maybe what Steel is saying is useful but for all I know it could be irrelevant. Then most typically as in the past (not this thread surprisingly) follows the cliches of something related to feces or something degrading.

    The section on Sabermetrics in the FAQ has been taken down and I guess we'll have to all go buy a Bill James book just to figure out if what Steel is saying is correct. But you know what I say who cares and I'll enjoy this season of baseball watching the Reds in the way I know "best".
    Quick question: Why is it my responsibility to educate others as to the relevance of performance metrics?

    Second quick question: How do you think I learned the stuff?

    Third quick question: Do I own a Bill James book?

    Fourth quick question: Why have I always liked Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez?

    Fifth quick question: If you PM me as to what the numbers mean, do you think I'm going to help you?

    The correct answers may surprise.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  10. #39
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Quick question: Why is it my responsibility to educate others as to the relevance of performance metrics?

    Second quick question: How do you think I learned the stuff?

    Third quick question: Do I own a Bill James book?

    Fourth quick question: Why have I always liked Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez?

    Fifth quick question: If you PM me as to what the numbers mean, do you think I'm going to help you?

    The correct answers may surprise.
    Would you be interested in writing a stats 101 type column/post? I think most Redszoners would like to learn about statistical anaylsis if given the chance to do so. In my experience, I've been reading your posts for over four years now and I still trying to catch up to your level on this subject.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  11. #40
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by kxblue
    I'll admit I am a casual fan (college basketball is my sport), but I have a question about stats.

    Why are Arroyo's
    DIPS: 3.86
    BABIP: .213
    important? Shouldn't his ERA (which is 2.06 after today's start), wins, and possibly WHIP be his sole measures of productivity as they are the only stats which really affect the outcome? After all, even if he is "lucky", why should his luck be counted against him?

    Im not a big stat guy, so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
    Here you go...

    Pitchers, above all other players, depend on other players to produce things like Wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. In short, DIPS ERA is an isolation of only that which a pitcher can control regardless of his defense. It's an individual representation of how well a pitcher performed just like Runs Created is an individual representation of how well a hitter performed without regard to other players in the lineup.

    If a pitcher has a much lower ERA than he does DIPS, then we can reasonably assume that the pitcher is either the beneficiary of a good deal of luck (BABIP randomness) or a good deal of fielder skill. If a pitcher has a higher ERA than DIPS ERA we can reasonably assume that said pitcher has been unlucky.

    In 2005, the Cardinals (1.21 DIPS Rate) and the Astros (1.12 DIPS Rate) finished second and first in the NL respectively in Defensive Efficiency. DIPS rate is DIPS/ERA. Basically, you'll find that the better defensive teams will produce ERA numbers lower than they should given their collection of pitchers. There are exceptions, of course, but I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to move DIPS to a lower rung on the individual contribution totem pole.

    Wins? Not represenational of individual player skill. WHIP? The Hits portion of WHIP relies on BABIP randomness or defensive skill. ERA can vary wildly based on a number of factors (including bullpen quality and usage). None are as accurate in guaging a pitcher's actual performance as DIPS.

    I'm not saying that DIPS or DIPS rate are the end-all-be-all in evaluating a pitcher's performance. But if we're talking about individual contribution, I'm going to look at that first because it tells us more about individual pitcher contribution than any other number.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  12. #41
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    I maintain that Arroyo's addition to this club, and what he has done--including the CG shutout of the Cards tonight--makes him the most valuable Red thus far in the season. Dunn's stats are impressive, I simply think Arroyo's talents mean more to this club right now.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  13. #42
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Quick question: Why is it my responsibility to educate others as to the relevance of performance metrics?

    Second quick question: How do you think I learned the stuff?

    Third quick question: Do I own a Bill James book?

    Fourth quick question: Why have I always liked Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez?

    Fifth quick question: If you PM me as to what the numbers mean, do you think I'm going to help you?

    The correct answers may surprise.
    1. Because ignorance kills baby kittens, and you don't seem like the kind of person that hates kittens.

    2. By placing a Bill James book under your pillow and employing learning-via-osmosis. Also through repeated viewings of Tom Emanski's "Teaching the Mechanics of the Big League Swing."

    3. Yes. It was given to you by the Lady of the Lake with the charge that you use it to claim your rightful place as King of RedsZone with your 10 Knights of the Diamond Table.

    4. Wily Mo Pena you feel a special kinship for after besting him in a 2 out of 3 Yahtzee tournament. The two of you got to talking and realized you had a lot more in common than anyone could've imagined. Felipe, I don't know -- I'm sure there's a story behind it.

    5. Sure you will. In fact, you'll have a binder full of research on his desk by tomorrow morning. We'd expect nothing less from our RedsZone MVP. If you can't hack it, we'll just promote someone else.

    Plus if you do, we'll give you a promotion. You'll have as many as 4 people under you. This is a big opportunity Steel.

    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  14. #43
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by paintmered
    Would you be interested in writing a stats 101 type column/post? I think most Redszoners would like to learn about statistical anaylsis if given the chance to do so. In my experience, I've been reading your posts for over four years now and I still trying to catch up to your level on this subject.
    I could, paint, but at this point I'm not exactly sure what the payoff would be for the reader. I guess from where I sit the folks who want to learn about stuff ask about it, have full access to formulas via readily accessible web sites, or want to do their own work so they're sure of the accuracy. That leaves me either covering very simple stuff like OPS, posting primer addresses that anyone can find using a Google search, or giving instructions on how to run correlation checks.

    At this point, I might suggest that we're beyond the stats 101 subject and have moved into a stats 201. My question would be how many folks are actually looking to move past things like OPS, WHIP, ERA, etc. If there are enough, I certainly wouldn't recommend that I be the only contributor as we've got other folks with at least as good an understanding of advanced metrics as I (although I appreciate the compliment).

    Post a poll. Might be good to guage interest first.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  15. #44
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
    1. Because ignorance kills baby kittens, and you don't seem like the kind of person that hates kittens.
    Correct. I like baby kittens. I'm upset because every time someone mentions ERA, Wins, Batting Average, or RBI, God kills a kitten. That's not right.

    2. By placing a Bill James book under your pillow and employing learning-via-osmosis. Also through repeated viewings of Tom Emanski's "Teaching the Mechanics of the Big League Swing."
    If you ever mention Tom Emanski again, I will not be your friend.

    3. Yes. It was given to you by the Lady of the Lake with the charge that you use it to claim your rightful place as King of RedsZone with your 10 Knights of the Diamond Table.
    Wrong. I've never owned a Bill James book and he pretty much ticks me off regularly. His most recent public declaration which whittled down to "Well we don't really know..." is one of the most cowardly things ever written. By anyone. Ever.

    James' legacy of Runs Created will go down in history as one of the primary accomplishments in statistical analysis. It's his pinnacle. But Voros McCraken is more talented than is James. So is Paul DePodesta and more than one or two guys currently writing articles on the internet. Bill James was a huge link in a long chain. He may have been the impetus for many, but he hasn't produced anything relevant publicly for a long long time. Folks working on Linear Weights are doing more to further analysis than James has in quite some time.

    4. Wily Mo Pena you feel a special kinship for after besting him in a 2 out of 3 Yahtzee tournament. The two of you got to talking and realized you had a lot more in common than anyone could've imagined. Felipe, I don't know -- I'm sure there's a story behind it.
    Nah. Basically I just wanted to confound Redszone by being the "stats guy" who held exceptional "tools" players in high regard. I'm still probably the only guy here who thinks that Felipe Lopez, given time, will become an above-averge fielding Shorstop.

    5. Sure you will. In fact, you'll have a binder full of research on his desk by tomorrow morning. We'd expect nothing less from our RedsZone MVP. If you can't hack it, we'll just promote someone else.
    Correct. Except the word "binder' like "Tom Emanski" is a huge no-no. Consider yourself on my watch list!

    Plus if you do, we'll give you a promotion. You'll have as many as 4 people under you. This is a big opportunity Steel.
    Dude, as long as I don't have to work weekends, I'll be happy. So make that happen.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  16. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Player Of The Month (April 2006)

    Quick Question, arent all kittens babies?

    Otherwise would they not be cats?


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