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Thread: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

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    Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Team Defense and Griffey's Defense in CF

    Well, I mentioned in another thread I was keeping track game-by-game the trends for Reds pitching and defense, including the Griffey Effect, and here I will attempt to provide some data and explain, to the best of my abilities, what is going on with all of the above

    First, here’s the game-by-game numbers themselves:
    Code:
    
    Date	        Opponent	IP	AB	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	HBP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	DER	ERA	dERA
    																			
    4/3/2006	Cubs		9	42	18	16	10	7	4	1	52	0	4.00	7.00	1.00	0.459	0.575	10.00	5.45
    4/5/2006	Cubs		9	34	7	6	4	0	7	3	34	0	7.00	0.00	3.00	0.167	0.833	4.00	6.00
    4/6/2006	Pirates		9	35	9	5	5	0	9	2	39	3	9.00	0.00	2.00	0.292	0.720	5.00	4.03
    4/7/2006	Pirates		9	37	10	6	6	3	5	2	41	1	5.00	3.00	2.00	0.267	0.733	6.00	5.81
    4/8/2006	Pirates		9	40	13	9	9	3	14	1	43	0	14.00	3.00	1.00	0.480	0.520	9.00	2.74
    4/9/2006	Pirates		9	31	7	5	4	2	8	1	37	1	8.00	2.00	1.00	0.273	0.760	4.00	3.57
    4/11/2006	Cubs		9	36	10	2	2	0	4	1	36	0	4.00	0.00	1.00	0.290	0.710	2.00	3.77
    4/12/2006	Cubs		8	31	8	4	3	2	4	0	34	0	4.50	2.25	0.00	0.296	0.714	3.38	3.07
    4/13/2006	Cubs		9	32	7	3	2	4	10	1	38	0	10.00	4.00	1.00	0.286	0.739	2.00	3.77
    4/14/2006	Cardinals	9	29	5	0	0	3	7	0	34	0	7.00	3.00	0.00	0.227	0.792	0.00	2.74
    4/15/2006	Cardinals	8	34	11	9	9	5	5	3	40	0	5.63	5.63	3.38	0.308	0.704	10.13	8.13
    4/16/2006	Cardinals	8	35	13	8	8	4	3	4	39	0	3.38	4.50	4.50	0.321	0.679	9.00	9.63
    4/17/2006	Marlins		9	33	8	1	1	3	9	0	37	1	9.00	3.00	0.00	0.333	0.667	1.00	2.40
    4/18/2006	Marlins		9	44	18	12	12	3	11	3	47	0	11.00	3.00	3.00	0.500	0.500	12.00	5.34
    4/19/2006	Marlins		9	40	15	8	8	4	9	4	45	1	9.00	4.00	4.00	0.407	0.593	8.00	7.39
    4/20/2006	Brewers		9	40	16	8	8	4	7	2	47	1	7.00	4.00	2.00	0.452	0.576	8.00	5.32
    4/21/2006	Brewers		9	33	6	1	1	2	10	1	35	0	10.00	2.00	1.00	0.227	0.773	1.00	3.14
    4/22/2006	Brewers		8	36	13	11	11	4	8	5	41	0	9.00	4.50	5.63	0.348	0.667	12.38	9.73
    4/23/2006	Brewers		9	30	5	0	0	2	4	0	32	0	4.00	2.00	0.00	0.192	0.808	0.00	3.07
    4/24/2006	Nationals	9	33	6	2	2	2	5	0	36	1	5.00	2.00	0.00	0.214	0.786	2.00	2.86
    4/25/2006	Nationals	9	36	11	5	4	3	1	2	39	0	1.00	3.00	2.00	0.273	0.727	4.00	6.70
    4/26/2006	Nationals	9	29	1	0	0	4	9	0	33	0	9.00	4.00	0.00	0.050	0.950	0.00	2.56
    4/28/2006	Astros		9	32	9	4	4	6	3	2	41	1	3.00	6.00	2.00	0.259	0.759	4.00	7.36
    4/29/2006	Astros		9	33	7	3	3	3	8	1	36	0	8.00	3.00	1.00	0.250	0.750	3.00	3.89
    4/30/2006	Astros		9	34	7	3	3	2	5	2	37	1	5.00	2.00	2.00	0.185	0.815	3.00	5.69
    5/1/2006	Cardinals	9	30	4	1	1	3	4	1	33	0	4.00	3.00	1.00	0.120	0.880	1.00	4.96
    5/2/2006	Cardinals	9	33	10	2	2	2	3	1	38	1	3.00	2.00	1.00	0.310	0.710	2.00	4.60
    
    				IP	AB	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	HBP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	DER	ERA	dERA
    TOTALS				239	932	254	134	122	80	176	43	1044	12	6.63	3.01	1.62	0.296	0.712	4.59	4.95
    
    For the readers who may not know what some of the above statistical terms are, here’s a brief overview:

    BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The batting average on all balls hit into play off a pitching staff. This is primarily determined by a combination of luck and the fielding defense behind the pitcher. League average is around the .300 mark, and normally BABIP figures usually find their way back to that .300 mark as the number of games increases. If a pitching staff is below .300, they are considered to be hit-lucky. If they are above .300, they are considered to be hit-unlucky. Regression to the mean, in this case .300, almost always occurs as a season progresses.

    DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio): The ratio of balls in play that the defense is able to convert into outs. This is also driven partially by luck, however, teams with better fielding defenses will almost certainly find their way among the league leaders in DER while teams with poorer fielding defenses will likely find their way among the league trailers in DER. A very good DER would be near 0.740, while a very poor DER would be around 0.670. League average is around the 0.700 to 0.710 level. In individual games, this number can fluctuate drastically, but over several games most team DER numbers fall within 0.670 to 0.740, unless they are exceptionally great or poor defensively.

    dERA (Defense Independent Pitching Stats Earned Run Average): Also called DIPS ERA, it is a stat which attempts to isolate the factors that are not dependent on the fielding defense behind a pitcher. It is used to deterine how an individual pitcher or pitching staff has performed regardless of the defense behind them.

    The rest of the above stats should be self-explanatory to everyone.

    The two important columns to compare so far are the totals for ERA and dERA. Reds pitchers currently have an ERA of 4.59, which suggests a considerable improvement over the ERAs in the 5.00 range that we’re used to in past seasons. Unfortunately, however, our dERA is nearly spot on that to 5.00 mark and sits at an ugly 4.95.

    Unless Reds pitchers are able to improve their current K/9, BB/9 or HR/9 marks, it is very reasonable to assume that in the very near future our team ERA will begin to rise and level off with the team dERA mark. Consistently fielding the best possible defensive alignment will help prevent the team ERA from climbing to the tree branch that our dERA resides on. Our team BABIP is .295, and while our pitchers haven’t been considerably hit-lucky, they’ve been hit-lucky to a slight degree. What is also very probable is that our pitchers are stranding more runners on base than would be expected, and that’s definitely a fire we no longer want to engage. Sooner or later, we’re going to get burned.

    Here’s a chart showing the relationship to our team ERA and team dERA so far this season. Usually, team ERA loves to follow wherever the team dERA is trending:


    For much of the early few weeks of the season, our team ERA was higher than our team dERA, which meant that our pitchers were getting unlucky and that our team defense wasn’t exactly optimal. Starting on April 23rd in Milwaukee, the tide changed and our pitchers suddenly started becoming extremely hit-lucky, and it’s also probable that our team defense improved a bit and became much more efficient.

    Here’s a chart showing both how our team BABIP and DER has trended with its seasonal average along with the game-by-game trend results:


    Again, notice around April 23rd that our team defensive efficiency spikes upward while our team BABIP spikes downward. More evidence that our defense is doing a better job and that our pitchers are simply being much luckier than they were earlier in the season with where batted balls are landing.

    Is being hit-lucky good for the games we’ve already won? Of course, anything that assists in achieving a win is good, even if it’s luck. The problem with luck, however, is if you rely on it consistently you’re just setting yourself up for the big collapse. Very recently during our current hot streak, Reds pitchers are simply getting exceptionally lucky. This is troublesome, because when the luck runs out and the results regress to the mean, we’re going to start seeing more of those ugly pitching performances we’re all accustomed to seeing.

    For our current pitching staff to continue pitching well, or well enough to give our offense a decent chance to win every night at the yard, they must strive for three factors, 1) raise their K/9, 2) lower their BB/9, and 3) lower their HR/9. Let’s see recently what the trends are for each of the three factors:




    The good: Our HR/9 rate is dropping as of recent games.
    The meah: Our BB/9 rate is holding steady when excluding the outlier of Friday night’s game vs. Houston.
    The bad: Our K/9 rate has been on a downward spiral for the last week plus.

    Several things can happen in the future from this point forward, but the key will be ensuring that our K/9 rate rebounds before our pitchers suddenly start becoming BABIP hit-unlucky. If our staff can rebound the K/9 rate, we can weather the storm of some high BABIP numbers somewhat, but if we’re not striking guys out and balls hit into play start falling for hits, expect those ERAs to jump up quickly.

    Now, let’s go back to the original game log chart and look at one more piece of information:
    Code:
    
    Date	        Opponent	IP	AB	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	HBP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	DER	ERA	dERA
    																			
    4/3/2006	Cubs		9	42	18	16	10	7	4	1	52	0	4.00	7.00	1.00	0.459	0.575	10.00	5.45
    4/5/2006	Cubs		9	34	7	6	4	0	7	3	34	0	7.00	0.00	3.00	0.167	0.833	4.00	6.00
    4/6/2006	Pirates		9	35	9	5	5	0	9	2	39	3	9.00	0.00	2.00	0.292	0.720	5.00	4.03
    4/7/2006	Pirates		9	37	10	6	6	3	5	2	41	1	5.00	3.00	2.00	0.267	0.733	6.00	5.81
    4/8/2006	Pirates		9	40	13	9	9	3	14	1	43	0	14.00	3.00	1.00	0.480	0.520	9.00	2.74
    4/9/2006	Pirates		9	31	7	5	4	2	8	1	37	1	8.00	2.00	1.00	0.273	0.760	4.00	3.57
    4/11/2006	Cubs		9	36	10	2	2	0	4	1	36	0	4.00	0.00	1.00	0.290	0.710	2.00	3.77
    4/12/2006	Cubs		8	31	8	4	3	2	4	0	34	0	4.50	2.25	0.00	0.296	0.714	3.38	3.07
    4/13/2006	Cubs		9	32	7	3	2	4	10	1	38	0	10.00	4.00	1.00	0.286	0.739	2.00	3.77
    4/14/2006	Cardinals	9	29	5	0	0	3	7	0	34	0	7.00	3.00	0.00	0.227	0.792	0.00	2.74
    4/15/2006	Cardinals	8	34	11	9	9	5	5	3	40	0	5.63	5.63	3.38	0.308	0.704	10.13	8.13
    4/16/2006	Cardinals	8	35	13	8	8	4	3	4	39	0	3.38	4.50	4.50	0.321	0.679	9.00	9.63
    4/17/2006	Marlins		9	33	8	1	1	3	9	0	37	1	9.00	3.00	0.00	0.333	0.667	1.00	2.40
    4/18/2006	Marlins		9	44	18	12	12	3	11	3	47	0	11.00	3.00	3.00	0.500	0.500	12.00	5.34
    4/19/2006	Marlins		9	40	15	8	8	4	9	4	45	1	9.00	4.00	4.00	0.407	0.593	8.00	7.39
    4/20/2006	Brewers		9	40	16	8	8	4	7	2	47	1	7.00	4.00	2.00	0.452	0.576	8.00	5.32
    4/21/2006	Brewers		9	33	6	1	1	2	10	1	35	0	10.00	2.00	1.00	0.227	0.773	1.00	3.14
    4/22/2006	Brewers		8	36	13	11	11	4	8	5	41	0	9.00	4.50	5.63	0.348	0.667	12.38	9.73
    4/23/2006	Brewers		9	30	5	0	0	2	4	0	32	0	4.00	2.00	0.00	0.192	0.808	0.00	3.07
    4/24/2006	Nationals	9	33	6	2	2	2	5	0	36	1	5.00	2.00	0.00	0.214	0.786	2.00	2.86
    4/25/2006	Nationals	9	36	11	5	4	3	1	2	39	0	1.00	3.00	2.00	0.273	0.727	4.00	6.70
    4/26/2006	Nationals	9	29	1	0	0	4	9	0	33	0	9.00	4.00	0.00	0.050	0.950	0.00	2.56
    4/28/2006	Astros		9	32	9	4	4	6	3	2	41	1	3.00	6.00	2.00	0.259	0.759	4.00	7.36
    4/29/2006	Astros		9	33	7	3	3	3	8	1	36	0	8.00	3.00	1.00	0.250	0.750	3.00	3.89
    4/30/2006	Astros		9	34	7	3	3	2	5	2	37	1	5.00	2.00	2.00	0.185	0.815	3.00	5.69
    5/1/2006	Cardinals	9	30	4	1	1	3	4	1	33	0	4.00	3.00	1.00	0.120	0.880	1.00	4.96
    5/2/2006	Cardinals	9	33	10	2	2	2	3	1	38	1	3.00	2.00	1.00	0.310	0.710	2.00	4.60
    
    				IP	AB	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	HBP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	DER	ERA	dERA
    TOTALS				239	932	254	134	122	80	176	43	1044	12	6.63	3.01	1.62	0.296	0.712	4.59	4.95
    
    Pay close attention to the ERA column for individual games. If you notice the distribution of individual game ERAs, it’s obvious that in approximately one-third of our games our pitchers are getting shelled significantly to the tune of ~8.00 ERA or higher. Then, in the other two-thirds of our games, our pitchers are performing extremely well with most of the individual game ERAs in the 0-4.00 range (i.e. range that still allows our offense at least a moderate chance of still outscoring the opposition).

    How’s that compare to last season? Well, here’s the data chart:


    In 2005, our pitching staff only gave us individual game ERAs of 4.00 or lower ~30 percent of all our games, and game ERAs of 5.00 or lower ~45 percent of all games. What’s interesting about the comparison from last season to this season is our pitching staff is keeping us in a higher percentage of games this season than last season, however, the few games we have gotten shelled so far this season have been serious shellings.

    How are we 19-8? Simple. Take an offense that’s averaging 5.85 runs per game and give them a pitching staff that’s holding their opponents to an ERA of 4.00 or lower in nearly 60 percent of our total games. Our overall pitching numbers have been abysmal, but so far we’re fortunate enough that we’ve clustered many of those bad performances together in merely a handful of total games.

    Perhaps we should call this the Arroyo/Harang Effect; or what happens when we have more than one above average starting pitcher in our rotation.

    Lastly for kicks and giggles, let’s analyze the Griffey Effect, but also be careful to take into consideration that since Griffey’s played in so few games this season that the small sample size looms large.

    First, here’s the gamelog with the individual game totals and overall totals with and without Griffey. Following that is the chart for game-by-game defensive efficiency numbers with and without Griffey starting in center field:
    Code:
    
    With Griffey in Center Field
    Date		Opponent	IP	AB	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	HBP	Errors	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	DER	ERA	dERA
    																		
    4/3/2006	Cubs		9	42	18	16	10	7	4	1	52	0	0	4.00	7.00	1.00	0.459	0.575	10.00
    4/5/2006	Cubs		9	34	7	6	4	0	7	3	34	0	0	7.00	0.00	3.00	0.167	0.833	4.00
    4/6/2006	Pirates		9	35	9	5	5	0	9	2	39	3	0	9.00	0.00	2.00	0.292	0.720	5.00
    4/7/2006	Pirates		9	37	10	6	6	3	5	2	41	1	0	5.00	3.00	2.00	0.267	0.733	6.00
    4/8/2006	Pirates		9	40	13	9	9	3	14	1	43	0	0	14.00	3.00	1.00	0.480	0.520	9.00
    4/9/2006	Pirates		9	31	7	5	4	2	8	1	37	1	0	8.00	2.00	1.00	0.273	0.760	4.00
    4/11/2006	Cubs		9	36	10	2	2	0	4	1	36	0	0	4.00	0.00	1.00	0.290	0.710	2.00
    4/12/2006	Cubs		8	31	8	4	3	2	4	0	34	0	0	4.50	2.25	0.00	0.296	0.714	3.38
    
    TOTALS				71	286	82	53	43	17	55	11	316	5	0	6.97	2.15	1.39	0.323	0.689	5.45	4.29
    
    Code:
    
    Without Griffey in Center Field
    Date		Opponent	IP	AB	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	HBP	Errors	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	DER	ERA	dERA
    																		
    4/13/2006	Cubs		9	32	7	3	2	4	10	1	38	0	0	10.00	4.00	1.00	0.286	0.739	2.00
    4/14/2006	Cardinals	9	29	5	0	0	3	7	0	34	0	0	7.00	3.00	0.00	0.227	0.792	0.00
    4/15/2006	Cardinals	8	34	11	9	9	5	5	3	40	0	0	5.63	5.63	3.38	0.308	0.704	10.13
    4/16/2006	Cardinals	8	35	13	8	8	4	3	4	39	0	0	3.38	4.50	4.50	0.321	0.679	9.00
    4/17/2006	Marlins		9	33	8	1	1	3	9	0	37	1	0	9.00	3.00	0.00	0.333	0.667	1.00
    4/18/2006	Marlins		9	44	18	12	12	3	11	3	47	0	0	11.00	3.00	3.00	0.500	0.500	12.00
    4/19/2006	Marlins		9	40	15	8	8	4	9	4	45	1	0	9.00	4.00	4.00	0.407	0.593	8.00
    4/20/2006	Brewers		9	40	16	8	8	4	7	2	47	1	0	7.00	4.00	2.00	0.452	0.576	8.00
    4/21/2006	Brewers		9	33	6	1	1	2	10	1	35	0	0	10.00	2.00	1.00	0.227	0.773	1.00
    4/22/2006	Brewers		8	36	13	11	11	4	8	5	41	0	0	9.00	4.50	5.63	0.348	0.667	12.38
    4/23/2006	Brewers		9	30	5	0	0	2	4	0	32	0	0	4.00	2.00	0.00	0.192	0.808	0.00
    4/24/2006	Nationals	9	33	6	2	2	2	5	0	36	1	0	5.00	2.00	0.00	0.214	0.786	2.00
    4/25/2006	Nationals	9	36	11	5	4	3	1	2	39	0	0	1.00	3.00	2.00	0.273	0.727	4.00
    4/26/2006	Nationals	9	29	1	0	0	4	9	0	33	0	0	9.00	4.00	0.00	0.050	0.950	0.00
    4/28/2006	Astros		9	32	9	4	4	6	3	2	41	1	0	3.00	6.00	2.00	0.259	0.759	4.00
    4/29/2006	Astros		9	33	7	3	3	3	8	1	36	0	0	8.00	3.00	1.00	0.250	0.750	3.00
    4/30/2006	Astros		9	34	7	3	3	2	5	2	37	1	0	5.00	2.00	2.00	0.185	0.815	3.00
    5/1/2006	Cardinals	9	30	4	1	1	3	4	1	33	0	0	4.00	3.00	1.00	0.120	0.880	1.00
    5/2/2006	Cardinals	9	33	10	2	2	2	3	1	38	1	0	3.00	2.00	1.00	0.310	0.710	2.00
    
    TOTALS				168	646	172	81	79	63	121	32	728	7	0	6.48	3.38	1.71	0.284	0.723	4.23	5.24
    



    In one game that Griffey has started we’ve put up an excellent individual game team DER. In five games we’ve been average or slightly above average. In two games we’ve been absolutely terrible. Without Griffey, our team DER has been average or higher in two-thirds of our games, and we’ve been terrible in 16 percent of our games.

    The sample size for individual games is too small to notice any noteworthy trends, but as the season progresses it could become meaningful to track how the team performs in overall efficiency with and without Griffey starting in center field.
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 05-21-2006 at 08:00 PM.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    thats some pretty interesting stuff. I also am wondering what affect Brandon Phillips at second base coincides with the defense as well. Like you said regarding Griffey, its quite a small sample size to make any true connection to anything due to luck. Phillips started playing the same time Griffey stopped playing, so it could be a little bit of both Phillips and Griffey with the defense.

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Thanks Cyclone!

    Very interesting... its good to have a sense of how lucky the pitchers have been and what the probable mean is. We will have to see if returning to the expected average can be done without losing a large number of games.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Amazing stuff Cyclone.

    One add to make here is the team doubles allowed rate. With Jr. the Reds allowed 2.91 doubles per game. Without him it's dropped to 1.68 doubles per game.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Eff

    [QUOTE=Cyclone792]...Unless Reds pitchers are able to improve their current K/9, BB/9 or HR/9 marks, it is very reasonable to assume that in the very near future our team ERA will begin to rise and level off with the team dERA mark...

    Which reinforces the virtual unanimous opinion that the Reds still need some "impact" studs in the rotation/pen. Unless they can get career years out of the likes of Milton, Wilson, Ramirez, etc.

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Far East, asking for a career year out of Ramirez in a year where he is 23 is reaching. I think he could be better than both Milton or Wilson this year, but I dont see him keeping an ERA under 4.00. He will probably be sent back down though once one of the two previously mentioned pitchers come back though.

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Nice work Cyclone. Two additional points:

    *The Reds are playing .700 ball right now. That level of playing is unsustainable over the long haul--clearly, this isn't the 1998 Yankees that we're watching on the field. Any team that plays .700 ball over a period of time is going to overachieve considerably.

    *The Reds' pitching staff has performed in an extremely volatile fashion thus far. The club is rendering ~5 runs, but the standard deviation of runs allowed is 4 (!). In other words, its been a feast or famine staff, and that performance volatility has been extremely valuable. To quote a nice article I read recently, "Now imagine that Mr. Inconsistent allowed no runs in half his starts and 10 in the other half. He'd win all his 0-run starts, but he'd also win the occasional 10-run start (about 18% of those starts, actually)." The article suggests that a volatile performer will add an extra 1.5 wins (per 30 games played) versus a static performer. That's huge.

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-old-same-old/

    With a powerhouse offense, such this Reds' version, overcoming a disasterous start is not insurmountable. And all those 0, 1, or 2 RA performances are almost guaranteed wins for the Reds.

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    thats some pretty interesting stuff. I also am wondering what affect Brandon Phillips at second base coincides with the defense as well. Like you said regarding Griffey, its quite a small sample size to make any true connection to anything due to luck. Phillips started playing the same time Griffey stopped playing, so it could be a little bit of both Phillips and Griffey with the defense.
    M2 brought up a great point about the Reds' doubles allowed rate since Griffey's been on the DL, and it's something I completely overlooked, yet is still very germane to the analysis. As useful as defensive efficiency ratio is, it still doesn't distinguish between singles, doubles and triples so it is very possible that Freel is helping track down more balls in the gaps and hold hitters to singles on balls that would otherwise have been doubles with Griffey in center field.

    D-Man also touched on the volatile nature of the staff so far and the remarkable standard deviation (I think it was 3.8, specifically). Given all the factors so far this season, I'm really not that surprised that we're a few games over our pyt record.

    This should be relatively easy to track from here on out, and I'll also toss the doubles allowed rates in to track with the rest of the data. That way we'll get an idea how the trends travel as the season progresses, and if/when a collapse of the pitching staff occurs we'll have a solid understanding of why, how and when that collapse happens.
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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Interesting, Cyclone.

    Regarding the doubles, I think we could describe each double to get an even better sense of what's going on with the defense. Enough of us watch the games that we could probably get a decent read on which fielders was "responsible" for each double, so to speak. I'd tag the doubles along the lines of:

    Groundball: 1B line, 3B line
    Shallow Pop: LF line, 1B line, LF, CF, RF
    Line drive: LF line, RF line
    Gapper on ground: LCF, RCF
    Gapper in air: LCF, RCF
    Wall ball/Over the head: LF, CF, RF

    Obviously, there is some subjectivity as to how to ascribe responsibility for some of these kinds of doubles. But, I do think that in the interest of isolating the CF position, it would serve to at least weed out doubles that take place along the 1B/RF and 3B/LF lines.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Eff

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    Interesting, Cyclone.

    Regarding the doubles, I think we could describe each double to get an even better sense of what's going on with the defense. Enough of us watch the games that we could probably get a decent read on which fielders was "responsible" for each double, so to speak. I'd tag the doubles along the lines of:

    Groundball: 1B line, 3B line
    Shallow Pop: LF line, 1B line, LF, CF, RF
    Line drive: LF line, RF line
    Gapper on ground: LCF, RCF
    Gapper in air: LCF, RCF
    Wall ball/Over the head: LF, CF, RF

    Obviously, there is some subjectivity as to how to ascribe responsibility for some of these kinds of doubles. But, I do think that in the interest of isolating the CF position, it would serve to at least weed out doubles that take place along the 1B/RF and 3B/LF lines.
    Well I have the time later this evening to go through and look at the gameday from each game and take down what part of the field each double waas hit to. Line Drive, pop up, etc you cant tell, but you can tell what part of the field the ball was hit to. So if no one else does it before tonight, I will get on it later this afternoon/evening and we can at least get some information.

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    One thing to consider on doubles down the OF lines, a rangier CF would allow corner OFs to play the lines tighter, cutting off or catching a greater number of those balls. It's what Cesar Geronimo allowed Ken Griffey Sr. and George Foster to do.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    M2, I would imagine the information is available for a price, but for those with season tickets who go to a lot of games, do they notice the corner guys playing differently with Freel in there rather than Griffey? Obviously on TV you cant tell those things, but at the game if you were looking for it, you probably could notice it.

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Eff

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    M2, I would imagine the information is available for a price, but for those with season tickets who go to a lot of games, do they notice the corner guys playing differently with Freel in there rather than Griffey? Obviously on TV you cant tell those things, but at the game if you were looking for it, you probably could notice it.
    Yeah, it's impossible to tell unless you're looking for it at live games. I came away with the impression that Bob Boone shaded his corners a lot more toward CF when Jr. was out there than when, say, Reggie Taylor would be patrolling CF. Whether that's carried through to the Narron regime, I can't say.

    One other consideration on OF corner doubles is that a better CF who can back up his corners might cause those players to go after balls with less trepidation than if a less rangy CF were on duty. For instance, when Adam Dunn's trying to play a low liner he might be a lot more worried about making a perfect play if he isn't sure whether the CF can cover his back. If he trusts the CF will be there to minimize any damage on a misplay then he can better focus on the athletic task at hand.

    If he isn't confident the CF can get behind him, then it makes the decision of whether to let the ball drop for a hit or try to make the catch all the more difficult. It can cause a situation where you're doing too much thinking and not enough reacting.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Eff

    Some other stats so far, as compared to last season:

    Year --- K/BB --- ERA --- WHIP --- BAA

    2005 --- 1.94 --- 5.18 --- 1.50 --- .290

    2006 --- 2.20 --- 4.59 --- 1.40 --- .273

    The greatest improvement thus far is in strikeouts compared to walks allowed.

    % Improved: K/BB ~13%, ERA ~11%, WHIP ~7%, BAA ~6%

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    Re: Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect

    Ok, I am starting to go through the gameday things now, and hoping to have a chart of every double or triple against the reds. There will be several pictures, as you cant chart them all on one thing, as they play in different stadiums. I should be done this evening some time.


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