WWKD? (What Will Krivsky Do?)

[RedEye]

With the season almost 1/4 over, I am back to thinking about what our new GM has up his sleeve these days. I posted a thread awhile back, before the WMP deal, in which I speculated about how Kriv would re-situate the team's strengths around defense and pitching. Now that he has done that, at least in part, with the Arroyo acquisiton, I find myself wondering what will be next.

Here's my guess what that next big move will be: trading Dunn, Kearns, or FeLo for pitching, perhaps around the July deadline.

Clearly, parting with any one of these players pains me immensely. I love the Reds offense and I get excited about their developing young core of talent. I was devastated when they traded Wily Mo, too, but now I have come to realize that it was for the best. Even if Bronson ultimately levels off as a sturdy #3 starter, he is valuable to this team because he keeps them in games. As much as I would hate to see any of the three young cornerstones move on, they are realistically our best shot we have at getting above league-average pitching in return.

1) Dunn: He is reasonably priced and signed for a couple of years. He is a one of a kind talent that other teams clearly covet, especially those who look past traditional statistics and espouse the moneyball approach. He would probably provide the best immediate value in return. He is expendable with both short-term (Denorfia) and long-term (Bruce) prospects in the pipeline.

2) Kearns: He is still young and cheap, and he seems to be coming into his own once again after battling weight and fat relief pitchers for two years. He is a better all-around player than Dunn, and is hence appealing to AL and NL teams equally. He is expendable with both short-term (Denorfia) and long-term (Bruce) prospects in the pipeline.

3) FeLo: He is one of the best young offensive shortstops in the game (15 steals?) but plays shoddy defense and has a hard-ass agent in Boras. Though players of this type are rare in the Reds organization, he may be more expendable now that the slick-fielding Phillips has asserted himself. A Phillips-Aurilia middle infield could be what we're looking at quite soon.

My own preference would be to keep Dunn (a rare talent and my vote for the face of this franchise going forward) and to shop the other two, taking the best offer within reason. What do you all think?

[kyle1976]

You make some good points. I don't think trading Lopez is an option though. He is young and is only going to get better. He's already a very good hitter. The Reds are very lucky to have him and I believe he'll be our shortstop for the next 10+ years. Shortstop is too valuable of a position to trade. I think Aurilia a great player, but he's 34, I think, and he's not getting any younger. He's more prone to injuries now and he might only have a few more quality years left.

If I had to choose, which I really don't want to, I would trade Dunn before Kearns. I don't think Kearns would get us nearly enough in return. We need #1 starter quality, not another 3 or 4. Dunn could get #1 starter quality. Also, I think Kearns is a better run producer. Dunn has had a few big hits in the past few games, but his inability to make contact with men on third and less than 2 outs is inexusable. It's ridiculous and it drives me crazy. I know he scores alot of runs, etc, but he should be driving in 140 runs a year, easily. I think Kearns is a better value for the money.

All that being said, I hope none of those three are traded. How about Claussen, Bergolla (with Phillips here I don't see him playing here much), and Wagner for Dontrelle Willis??? Harang, Arroyo, and Willis would make a pretty good playoff combo for years to come. Three really good starters is what championship teams have.

[Unassisted]

The more this team wins, the more leverage Krivsky has to get a good return on a deal for the players you mentioned. I hope he's in no hurry to do a deal.

[TeamBoone]

I'd rethink the catching situation. They're not a dime a dozen and there are teams that I think would pay a decent pitcher (not an ace) for a good catcher.

I don't think the Reds need an ace to win, but another good arm is almost a must have. Neither do I think that any of the guys named in the original post need to be traded to get what the team needs... though I'm no expert and my thinking/perspective may be all wet.

[ochre]

I honestly can't think of a matchup in a trade that I would deem acceptable for any of those three that the other team would be likely willing to accept. They all have flaws that are going to cause other teams to be reluctant to return sufficient talent. They are all young, potentially dominant, hitters that, in spite of their flaws are quite valuable. The problem is, I find it hard to believe that they are going to be able get adequate return for any of those three. Neither Bruce, nor Denorfia are quite enough to consider Dunn "expendable" in my mind. Perhaps Kearns at this point, but Dunn's body of work up until now and future promise is rarified.

[redsmetz]

I'd rethink the catching situation. They're not a dime a dozen and there are teams that I think would pay a decent pitcher (not an ace) for a good catcher.

I don't think the Reds need an ace to win, but another good arm is almost a must have. Neither do I think that any of the guys named in the original post need to be traded to get what the team needs... though I'm no expert and my thinking/perspective may be all wet.

I would agree with you. Right now our rotation is two good starters, two crapshoots and a day of prayer. A decent consistent #3 starter would help immensely (that might be the new Milton - we'll see - then an upgrade at the #5 slot helps).

[Highlifeman21]

IMO, Most Tradeable Guys on the 25 Man Roster

1. Felipe Lopez.
He's shown smart basestealing ability this year, as he's not doing it on speed alone, b/c that's 1 thing he doesn't have, aside from fielding ability. As a SS in the NL, he can rake. Being a switch hitter raises his trade value as well. 2 reasons why I put him this high on the list: 1. Scott Boras 2. Our offense won't suffer without him, and a defensive upgrade would help our pitchers. Brandon Phillips has already shown how better defense helps our pitchers.

2. Jason LaRue.
We don't need 3 catchers. Ross is Arroyo's personal catcher, and I'm fine with that. Valentin is our only option from the left side of the plate. LaRue makes too much money for our team, and I believe his defensive ability would be appealing to teams.

3. Ryan Freel.
Once KGJ returns, I feel he'll be back in the super sub role, and probably split some time with Phillips when he's not giving KGJ a day off in CF. I feel that Freel's trade value would be higher than Aurillia, so when Aurillia comes off the DL, he can be the new super IF sub, and then we could have Denorfia or McCracken as the 4th OF.

4. Eric Milton.
This is purely a salary move, but if the Reds aren't contending for the NL Central or NL WC in July, a healthy Milton should be moved to clear some room for either FA moves around the winter meetings, or locking up some of our other guys to LTCs.

Each one of these 4 guys would have a different agenda for our team if traded. Lopez would be to improve pitching and more of a "win now" attitude, whereas trading Freel or LaRue would only improve our role players, while Milton would improve our financial situation.

Thoughts?

[Mario-Rijo]

I would be kicking around some ideas for pen help as well. I have no doubt that Krivsky can scoop up an arm or 2 for Larue. We could make due with the other 2! How about Larue & Dave Williams to the Rockies for Eli Marrero, Ray King and perhaps Shealy or another prospect? You then kick Belisle up to the rotation or simply leave the Lizard up and send Shealy to Tripla-A for a bit. King could be a very good LH set-up man to go along with the RH Coffey. I think it's at least a good jumping off point. What do ya think?

[UGADaddy]

FeLo (what RedEye said), JLa (what Highlifeman said), Dunn (what RedEye said), Milton/Wilson (assuming someone GM would give ANYTHING for them) are all good choices to go. But I haven't seen anything about Junior. If KGJ could get hot for a few weeks and make stupid GMs believe that he's the Griffey of old (wow, how many times have I heard that one??), we may be able to get a pretty good SP for him...

[UGADaddy]

**Actually, when I wrote Milton/Wilson, I really mean any pitcher on the 40-man aside from Arroyo, Harang, or Coffee.

[RedEye]

IMO, Most Tradeable Guys on the 25 Man Roster

1. Felipe Lopez.
He's shown smart basestealing ability this year, as he's not doing it on speed alone, b/c that's 1 thing he doesn't have, aside from fielding ability. As a SS in the NL, he can rake. Being a switch hitter raises his trade value as well. 2 reasons why I put him this high on the list: 1. Scott Boras 2. Our offense won't suffer without him, and a defensive upgrade would help our pitchers. Brandon Phillips has already shown how better defense helps our pitchers.

2. Jason LaRue.
We don't need 3 catchers. Ross is Arroyo's personal catcher, and I'm fine with that. Valentin is our only option from the left side of the plate. LaRue makes too much money for our team, and I believe his defensive ability would be appealing to teams.

3. Ryan Freel.
Once KGJ returns, I feel he'll be back in the super sub role, and probably split some time with Phillips when he's not giving KGJ a day off in CF. I feel that Freel's trade value would be higher than Aurillia, so when Aurillia comes off the DL, he can be the new super IF sub, and then we could have Denorfia or McCracken as the 4th OF.

4. Eric Milton.
This is purely a salary move, but if the Reds aren't contending for the NL Central or NL WC in July, a healthy Milton should be moved to clear some room for either FA moves around the winter meetings, or locking up some of our other guys to LTCs.

Each one of these 4 guys would have a different agenda for our team if traded. Lopez would be to improve pitching and more of a "win now" attitude, whereas trading Freel or LaRue would only improve our role players, while Milton would improve our financial situation.

Thoughts?

I'd like to agree with you, Highlifeman, but I just don't think Milton, Freel and LaRue are the type of commodities that will fetch what this team needs desperately: frontline pitching. I think we have different ideas about what a "tradeable" player is. Yes, there are some players on our roster (Freel, LaRue, Milton, Ross, Hatteberg, Aurilia, the list goes on...) who seem to be inessential, or perhaps just less important, parts of the Reds' winning percentage. This does not mean, however, that they are realistically valuable on the MLB market.

If you follow the way free agent signings go these days, the deck stacks with #1 and #2 SP as THE most valuable asset a team can have. Do you think that if the Reds had a legit #1 they would be considering trading him? Probably not, and they'd only THINK about it if they got a top-notch player in return.

Dunn, Kearns and FeLo are the Reds top-notch players, with the possible addition of EdE. If I'm Billy Beane and Kriv asks me about trading Rich Harden, I say "No way." If Kriv asks about Barry Zito (ignoring his pending free agency for the sake of argument here), I say "Let's start our talks with Adam Dunn and prospects for Zito." If Kriv asks about Danny Haren, then MAYBE I say, "Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez straight-up", and that's ONLY if I think my A's team REALLY needs offense in a serious way.

I'm actually kind of tired of people on this board speculating about how we should package Freel + Milton or Freel + LaRue for [insert name of the most recent quality SP rumored to be on the market]. Unless MLB GMs are like my 6th grade baseball card club, when no one had any idea how much a McGwire '84 Olympic card was worth except me, the Reds just aren't going to get anything of value by trading their middle-aged scrubs like Freel, LaRue and Milton (okay, that's a bit harsh, but I'm trying to look at this from another team's perspective).

Dunn, Kearns and Lopez, in my opinion, are the only three players that another GM in his right mind would consider. If Kriv can land anything close to a frontline starter for anyone else, he truly is a magician.

[Hondo]

Dude,

Look at what Players Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder Brought.

It wasn't a Dunn, Lopez, or a Kearns...

It was a Bruce, Votto, and a Bailey...

And then, Jockety still didn't trade away all his TOP TOP TOP Talent...
Dunn, Lopez, and Kearns are staying...Krivisky knows they have to stay to contend the whole year...

Being a Free Agent, Zito will only bring Prospects, thats it...

And Wayne's World isn't gonna let Bailey or Bruce go for Zito either...

Haren might net a Lopez but not an Adam Dunn.

JaredRoberts.com

[RedEye]

Dude,

Look at what Players Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder Brought.

It wasn't a Dunn, Lopez, or a Kearns...

It was a Bruce, Votto, and a Bailey...

And then, Jockety still didn't trade away all his TOP TOP TOP Talent...
Dunn, Lopez, and Kearns are staying...Krivisky knows they have to stay to contend the whole year...

Being a Free Agent, Zito will only bring Prospects, thats it...

And Wayne's World isn't gonna let Bailey or Bruce go for Zito either...

Haren might net a Lopez but not an Adam Dunn.

JaredRoberts.com

That's a really good point... I may have picked the worst GM in baseball as my example because Beane is so cunning about knowing when to deal his players. The only problem, then, is that the Reds just don't have the minor league depth to offer a prospect package like that either. Which brings me back to Dunn, Kearns, and Lopez...

[Highlifeman21]

I'd like to agree with you, Highlifeman, but I just don't think Milton, Freel and LaRue are the type of commodities that will fetch what this team needs desperately: frontline pitching. I think we have different ideas about what a "tradeable" player is. Yes, there are some players on our roster (Freel, LaRue, Milton, Ross, Hatteberg, Aurilia, the list goes on...) who seem to be inessential, or perhaps just less important, parts of the Reds' winning percentage. This does not mean, however, that they are realistically valuable on the MLB market.

If you follow the way free agent signings go these days, the deck stacks with #1 and #2 SP as THE most valuable asset a team can have. Do you think that if the Reds had a legit #1 they would be considering trading him? Probably not, and they'd only THINK about it if they got a top-notch player in return.

Dunn, Kearns and FeLo are the Reds top-notch players, with the possible addition of EdE. If I'm Billy Beane and Kriv asks me about trading Rich Harden, I say "No way." If Kriv asks about Barry Zito (ignoring his pending free agency for the sake of argument here), I say "Let's start our talks with Adam Dunn and prospects for Zito." If Kriv asks about Danny Haren, then MAYBE I say, "Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez straight-up", and that's ONLY if I think my A's team REALLY needs offense in a serious way.

I'm actually kind of tired of people on this board speculating about how we should package Freel + Milton or Freel + LaRue for [insert name of the most recent quality SP rumored to be on the market]. Unless MLB GMs are like my 6th grade baseball card club, when no one had any idea how much a McGwire '84 Olympic card was worth except me, the Reds just aren't going to get anything of value by trading their middle-aged scrubs like Freel, LaRue and Milton (okay, that's a bit harsh, but I'm trying to look at this from another team's perspective).

Dunn, Kearns and Lopez, in my opinion, are the only three players that another GM in his right mind would consider. If Kriv can land anything close to a frontline starter for anyone else, he truly is a magician.

I think Lopez was the only thing on my list that would help our starting pitching needs via trade. Trading Milton I think helps our core players by freeing up money for LTCs. Trading Freel and or LaRue might get us some bullpen help which we do need, but I don't think anything legendary that would be looked back as "the trade that made the Reds", ya know?

I think you drastically change the dynamic of the offense if you move Dunn or Kearns, and I don't know that the rest of the lineup could pick up the slack that the absence one of them would create. I agree that Kearns and Dunn would get us some top pitching, but I don't think the reward is worth the risk to ship one of them off. I know some people are down on Kearns, but I think he helps us more on our team than not. I think KGJ is the other way. I think he helps us more in what we'd get for him. I'm thinking along those same lines with Lopez. I love what Lopez brings to the plate, but defensively he's a liability, and I think the added defense up the middle could be the patchwork quilt that helps our pitching in the short term.

I couldn't agree more with that bolded statement above. I think trading a Freel or LaRue just helps our role players and maybe gets us some bullpen help.

[RedEye]

I think Lopez was the only thing on my list that would help our starting pitching needs via trade. Trading Milton I think helps our core players by freeing up money for LTCs. Trading Freel and or LaRue might get us some bullpen help which we do need, but I don't think anything legendary that would be looked back as "the trade that made the Reds", ya know?

I think you drastically change the dynamic of the offense if you move Dunn or Kearns, and I don't know that the rest of the lineup could pick up the slack that the absence one of them would create. I agree that Kearns and Dunn would get us some top pitching, but I don't think the reward is worth the risk to ship one of them off. I know some people are down on Kearns, but I think he helps us more on our team than not. I think KGJ is the other way. I think he helps us more in what we'd get for him. I'm thinking along those same lines with Lopez. I love what Lopez brings to the plate, but defensively he's a liability, and I think the added defense up the middle could be the patchwork quilt that helps our pitching in the short term.

I couldn't agree more with that bolded statement above. I think trading a Freel or LaRue just helps our role players and maybe gets us some bullpen help.

I wish we could trad KGJ, and I never thought I'd ever, ever say that when they first got him. Like many others, I feel like the odds are stacked against him going anywhere with so many obstacles (contract, trade clause, injury history, yada yada yada). That's why I get so mad whenever I hear about the deal they had worked out last year with the ChiSox for OF Chris Young that then got nixed by Mr. Lindner. We may never have a chance to unload Griff again, and if we do, I doubt it would be for anything like a #1 or even a #2 starter.

Personally, if we can't acquire a starter for Dunn/Kearns/Lopez, I'm hoping that we can swap KGJ for a couple of prospects and salary considerations so that Kriv can keep the core and (dare to dream?) pursue a free agent like Zito during the offseason.