Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

[Cyclone792]

I'm sure I'll get flack for it, but I would put ARod in the underrated category if only because he should be THE star of MLB and we never hear about him -- at least rarely in a good light. He has tons of constituencies who all want a piece of him and all we ever hear are complaints that doesn't live up to it somehow.

- He's been doing what Pujols does but for 10 years.
- He's played 2 of the toughest positions VERY well (let me know when Pujols wins a GG at short)
- He's stolen over 200 bases -- at an 80% clip.
- He's a year younger than Jeter. He's closer in age to Adam Dunn than Ken Griffey Jr.

Unfortunately, because he took a ridiculous offer, it's as if nothing he could do is enough. If we're talking about the level of attention/hype people get relative to their skill/performance, I think ARod has be up there. Obviously not THE most underrated, because he does get plenty of attention, but I think we've unfortunately grown accustomed to his greatness -- much like Bonds pre-roids.

No, I definitely agree with this. In fact there was a thread about it not long ago based on an article about A-Rod in the NYTimes. Somebody (Cyclone?) brought up the point that we will become more famous as he approaches the records, which is probably true.

Good post, Rick, and vatican, I think I did say something like that earlier. If not, then I'll say it now

Alex Rodriguez has a great chance to go down as one of the top 10 or 15 players of all-time, and even a decent chance to crack the top 10, but most fans today simply do not yet realize it. In about four or five seasons when Rodriguez is busting down the doors to home run #600 and approaching 3,000 hits at the age of 35 people will finally wake up and realize what he's been doing. Unfortunately for those fans, Rodriguez's peak years will probably be behind him by that point so when the baseball world finally gives him his due they'll be watching him play at a lower caliber than what he's already done and doing currently.

Finding an offensive machine that plays shortstop and third base at the level of Alex Rodriguez is about as rare of a player as you'll ever find.

Not simply "great," but more like "all-time great."

[Cyclone792]

Probably worse? We have discussed on this board time and time again Adam Dunn and his positives/negatives. The main argument made for Dunn is he gets on base. Ok, that's great. The last two seasons Adam Dunn had 616 total bases. Teixiera had 675. He also won a Gold Glove last year. The only way Dunn is getting one is with a can of spray paint. Your loyalty for Dunn is admirable. But to say that Teixeira is "probably worse" is ludicrous. It's okay to say someone is better than Dunn, it doesn't lessen the fact that he is good at what he does. But if you're going to use stats to defend him, then do your homework when comparing him to someone else.

You might want to do your own homework before blatantly calling somebody else out on supposedly not doing their homework.

            Win Shares   RC/27   LgRC/27   RC/27 Ratio    OPS+
Dunn 2004       32       7.86     4.87        1.61        152
Dunn 2005       28       7.15     4.71        1.52        135

Teixeira 2004   25       7.41     5.12        1.45        128
Teixeira 2005   32       7.85     4.85        1.62        146

Win shares and OPS+ is park adjusted, while RC/27 is not. Teixeira plays in a hitter's park, while Dunn's park is largely neutral.

Claiming that Teixeira is "probably worse" than Dunn as chili did is most definitely not ludicrous, but actually pretty darn accurate.

[cincinnati chili]

You might want to do your own homework before blatantly calling somebody else out on supposedly not doing their homework.

            Win Shares   RC/27   LgRC/27   RC/27 Ratio    OPS+
Dunn 2004       32       7.86     4.87        1.61        152
Dunn 2005       28       7.15     4.71        1.52        135

Teixeira 2004   25       7.41     5.12        1.45        128
Teixeira 2005   32       7.85     4.85        1.62        146

Win shares and OPS+ is park adjusted, while RC/27 is not. Teixeira plays in a hitter's park, while Dunn's park is largely neutral.

Claiming that Teixeira is "probably worse" than Dunn as chili did is most definitely not ludicrous, but actually pretty darn accurate.

Thanks Cyclone for digging up these numbers.

I don't begrudge anyone who makes the argument that Teixeira is better. They might be right. But I think Hand illustrates my point here about Dunn being underrated, by calling the argument "ludicrous." Most people don't focus on the stats that tell you the most about a player, and dwell on many others that tell you substantially less.

Talking specifically about total bases. They're great. They help you win games. But outs are bad. They help you lose games. IMO, you can't praise someone for total bases without evaluating the number of outs it requires to obtain them.

[Handofdeath]

You might want to do your own homework before blatantly calling somebody else out on supposedly not doing their homework.

            Win Shares   RC/27   LgRC/27   RC/27 Ratio    OPS+
Dunn 2004       32       7.86     4.87        1.61        152
Dunn 2005       28       7.15     4.71        1.52        135

Teixeira 2004   25       7.41     5.12        1.45        128
Teixeira 2005   32       7.85     4.85        1.62        146

Win shares and OPS+ is park adjusted, while RC/27 is not. Teixeira plays in a hitter's park, while Dunn's park is largely neutral.

Claiming that Teixeira is "probably worse" than Dunn as chili did is most definitely not ludicrous, but actually pretty darn accurate.

GABP is largely neutral? Since when? Oh I'm sorry Bill James said it was. If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but Bill James( the L.Ron Hubbard of baseball) says it's a horse, then by god it's a horse. My apologies.

[registerthis]

GABP is largely neutral? Since when? Oh I'm sorry Bill James said it was. If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but Bill James( the L.Ron Hubbard of baseball) says it's a horse, then by god it's a horse. My apologies.

???

You can verify the numbers for yourself if you'd like, Hand, or you can simply continue to think that GABP skews heavily towards hitters.

It increases HRs by a small amount, but equally suppresses doubles and triples. It really, truly, honest-to-God is a neutral park. Bill james doesn't even warrant a mention in this discussion.

[Izzardius]

Overrated: As hitter, Jeter is actually quite good, but defensively he's vastly overrated. Although Alfonso Soriano belongs at the top of this list for me.

Underrated: Brian Giles-might be the best player ever to never play on a really good team, assuming he finishes his career in San Diego.

[vaticanplum]

Timely...

http://www.gothamist.com/archives/20...m_a_brea_1.php

[TRF]

GABP is largely neutral? Since when? Oh I'm sorry Bill James said it was. If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but Bill James( the L.Ron Hubbard of baseball) says it's a horse, then by god it's a horse. My apologies.

dude. weak arguement. It does boost HR totals, but all other extra base hits are low, and therefore rates as pretty neutral.

Ya know, A lot of guys can research stuff about baseball statistics and never mention Bill James.

[Cyclone792]

GABP is largely neutral? Since when? Oh I'm sorry Bill James said it was. If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but Bill James( the L.Ron Hubbard of baseball) says it's a horse, then by god it's a horse. My apologies.

Since 2003.

It is a home run hitter's park, but not a hitter's park. Like register stated, it suppresses other forms of hits to such a degree that the overall run factor of the park is largely neutral.

And no, Bill James has nothing to do with determining the park factor of GABP.

[Crash Davis]

Overrated: Chipper Jones

Yeah, yeah... say what you want about those division titles. Still, this guy has never really impressed me that much. In my opinion, he's never really been one of the best players in the game despite getting that publicity. The Atlanta pitching has been much more important to their success, and this guy's rep has been one of the main beneficiaries. He's also looking more and more like he's going to poop out before his statistics merit Hall consideration. A latter day Dale Murphy if you ask me.

Hmmm...if the goal of playing baseball is to win, Chipper Jones takes a back seat to no one. I don't care much for Chipper, but I sure do respect what he's accomplished.

He's never known a season where his team hasn't won its division, and he's been the consistent driving force in the Braves lineup for most of their 14 year run. He's a switch-hitter, a tough out, has very good power, a very good k/bb ratio, gets on base and produces in big games. He's now become a bit injury prone, but overrated? Not if you're into players who win.

OVERRATED:
Juan Pierre
Chien Ming Wang
Russell Branyan
Erubiel Durazo
Hee Seop Choi
Carlos Pena
Mark Bellhorn
Jose Cruz Jr.
Jeff Francoeur
Adam LaRoche
Paul LoDuca
Randy Winn
Jason Michaels
Meltdown Milton Bradley
Joey Gathright

UNDERRATED:
1. Placido Polanco
2. Adam Dunn
3. Jose Contreras
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Ben Sheets
6. Scott Eyre
7. Chad Tracy
8. Brandon Webb
8. Aaron Cook
10. Chris Capuano
11. Freddy Sanchez
12. Nick Johnson
13. Livan Hernandez
14. Carlos Guillen
15. Scot Shields
16. Toby Hall

[M2]

GABP is largely neutral? Since when? Oh I'm sorry Bill James said it was. If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but Bill James( the L.Ron Hubbard of baseball) says it's a horse, then by god it's a horse. My apologies.

I've got a son in the second grade who can understand the math involved in determining park factors. It's that basic.

[RedsManRick]

GABP is largely neutral? Since when? Oh I'm sorry Bill James said it was. If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but Bill James( the L.Ron Hubbard of baseball) says it's a horse, then by god it's a horse. My apologies.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...N/attend.shtml
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...or?season=2003

Since it's opening GABP has played neutral in regards to runs scored at .989 - which means teams score 1% less in GABP than they do on average.

Over the same time period, Ameriquest has a factor of 1.17 - 17% above average.

Now yes, GABP is slightly homer friendly, but it kills other extra base hits, functionally negating the homer boost. The idea that it's some launching pad is borne more out of anecdotal media commentary and the fact that the Reds hit a ton of homers everywhere, they just happen to play 81 games at home.

----------------------------------

For those that may be wary of Park Factor's -- it's pretty simple. How did you do (whatever -- runs, homers, etc.) at home compared to on the Road. If the Reds scored 500 runs and allowed 500 runs at home and scored 300 runs and allowed 300 runs on the road, their runs factor would be:

(500 runs scored at home + 500 runs allowed at home)/81 games = 12.34

DIVDED BY

(300 runs scored on the roade + 300 runs allowed on the road)/81 games = 7.41

12.34/7.41 = 1.67

That is, the Reds and their opponents scored 67% more runs at home than on the road. Any difference of more than .1 is pretty significant.

The Reds have had 1 neutral year ('03), one very pitcher friendly year ('04), and hitter friendly year ('05).

[vaticanplum]

UNDERRATED:
3. Jose Contreras

He won again today. The White Sox are knocking me out. As far as I'm concerned they're the story in baseball right now apart from the Reds. It's not surprising that they're succeeding with that staff, but they're doing so in an even more convincing way than I expected.

Good to see Vazquez getting some love. True Javier the Great is due to emerge any day now.

re: Chien-Ming wang. Interesting to hear him called overrated. I kind of have hopes that he continues to flouder a little bit with the Yankees this season so they're willing to trade him at the deadline. They've been so gung-ho on not trading him to this point, but with the need-it-now mentality they have, it wouldn't be surprising to see them rethink this. He'd be a great pickup for Cincinnati I think. All groundballs, all the time. And I think he's definitely talented, so I'll chalk some of his recent blips up to youth.

[wolfboy]

My vote for underrated goes to Vlad Guerrero. Over a ten year span, he has a .977 OPS. What amazes me about Guerrero is that he isn't a guy that takes a lot of walks. He's had over 65 walks once in a season. I don't place a premium on batting average for the most part, but I find it amazing that he is a .324 hitter coming into this season. He has never hit under .300 in a full season. His RC/27 compares pretty favorably to A Rod. He has a higher OPS for his career than A Rod, and their OPS+ is pretty similar. I'm not trying to compare the two, but it does give some perspective on how good Guerrero has been.

When Guerrero was in Montreal, he barely got any attention. Now that he's with the OC Angels, he's getting a bit more press. I just don't know if he has the recognition that one of the best in the game should have.

[Highlifeman21]

I don't really want to get into a Derek Jeter-slurping contest on a Reds message board, but this is exactly why Jeter is *underrated* - especially by non-Yankee fans. Not even the best shortstop on his team??? Come on - do you really buy that?? He'll eventually end his career with about a .310 career BA, 3000+ hits, 300 or so home runs, and 300-400 steals. Not to mention 4 WS rings.


It obviously helps to be in a better lineup, but come on - 3000 hits doesn't just happen by accident. He's a damn good baseball player, and one of the top 3/4 shortstops in the game over the last 10 years.



Underrated = how about Jason Jennings? If he pitched anywhere else in the NL, he'd likely be a #1 starter. Very good hitter, too - career BA around .250.

Good lord you sound like Skip Bayless, since in fact something similar came from his mouth during 1st and 10 on Cold Pizza.

And yes, I really do buy the fact Jeter isn't the best SS on the Yankees 25 man roster right now. The guy playing next to him, Alex Rodriguez is a FAR SUPERIOR SS than Derek Jeter can ever hope to be, both offensively and defensively.

WS rings are just a byproduct of the club you're on. His rings actually enhance his entire overratedness, due to the fact, he's never been the best player on his team, and that he's a glorified role player. There have been, and will continue to be plenty of far better ballplayers than Derek Jeter who will never come close to sniffing a WS ring, let alone put one on.

Derek Jeter = Gary Sheffield = Paul O'Neil. What do all three of them have in common? They all have enjoyed statistical success while playing for the YANKEES. Paul O'Neil's numbers drastically improved once putting on the pinstripes, just as Gary Sheffield's numbers have enjoyed similar results. IIRC, Sheffield had 1 good season way back when with the Padres, and that's it. If Derek Jeter weren't constantly surrounded with some of the best players money could buy, then he wouldn't be anything more than a below to average glove SS with limited plate discipline who can find the gap here and again.

He's not even in the top 5 of best SS in the game over the last 10 years, so I don't know where you magically made up that he's one of the best 3/4. Please prove me wrong.