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Thread: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

  1. #76
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Crash Davis
    OVERRATED:
    Juan Pierre
    Chien Ming Wang
    Russell Branyan
    Erubiel Durazo
    Hee Seop Choi
    Carlos Pena
    Mark Bellhorn
    Jose Cruz Jr.
    Jeff Francoeur
    Adam LaRoche
    Paul LoDuca
    Randy Winn
    Jason Michaels
    Meltdown Milton Bradley
    Joey Gathright
    Outside of Pierre, LoDuca and Bradley, I'd call that an unrated list. I suspect the overwhelming majority of solid, but casual baseball fans don't even know who the rest of the guys are.
    Last edited by M2; 05-04-2006 at 05:05 PM.
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  3. #77
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    As far as the Jeter discussion goes

    By Age 31
    Code:
    Player              From  To Yrs   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA   OBP   SLG   SB   CS OPS+ 
    --------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
     Derek Jeter         1995-2005 11 1525  6167 1159 1936 308  47 169  763  636 1089  .314  .386  .461  215  57  121
     Alan Trammell       1977-1989 13 1689  6143  938 1759 292  49 138  721  639  657  .286  .353  .417  187  86  112
    Trammell got 17.7% of the HOF votes this year.

  4. #78
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum
    re: Chien-Ming wang. Interesting to hear him called overrated. I kind of have hopes that he continues to flouder a little bit with the Yankees this season so they're willing to trade him at the deadline. They've been so gung-ho on not trading him to this point, but with the need-it-now mentality they have, it wouldn't be surprising to see them rethink this. He'd be a great pickup for Cincinnati I think. All groundballs, all the time. And I think he's definitely talented, so I'll chalk some of his recent blips up to youth.
    I don't know that Wang is overrated. Maybe anyone in the NY market is. I'm not sure if I'd like Wang for the Reds or not. He has the ability to provide league average pitching. Sometimes his mechanics are off, and he can't keep the ball down. That would worry me in GABP. His K and K:BB numbers dropped off a good bit in 2005 (majors and minors). A lot of Yankees fans wanted to get rid of him this past offseason. Make a sell high kind of move. I would take him over Wilson, Milton or Williams. Then again, I'd take most beer league aces over those guys.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  5. #79
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21
    Derek Jeter = Gary Sheffield = Paul O'Neil. What do all three of them have in common? They all have enjoyed statistical success while playing for the YANKEES. Paul O'Neil's numbers drastically improved once putting on the pinstripes, just as Gary Sheffield's numbers have enjoyed similar results. IIRC, Sheffield had 1 good season way back when with the Padres, and that's it. If Derek Jeter weren't constantly surrounded with some of the best players money could buy, then he wouldn't be anything more than a below to average glove SS with limited plate discipline who can find the gap here and again.
    Again, I'm baffled by this argument. Yes, they won while playing for the Yankees, but funnily enough, the Yankees won because of their players. The name of the team, and four titles in five years, are not arbitrary things. People act as if Derek Jeter was just hanging out chewing gum in the dugout as the Yankees won. He was a big part of all of those Series, MVP in one, and in the two Series he played in which the Yankees did NOT win (01 and 03), he didn't perform quite up to par, the November homer notwithstanding.

    Shane Spencer got a couple of those rings with the Yankees too. I never hear anybody talking about him as one of baseball's greatest players. I don't even hear it about Scott Brosius, who was a World Series MVP once, just like Jeter. Jeter was a far more crucial part of all of those teams, and the titles and the rings -- not to mention the seasons that got them there -- are a part of why he is great, just as much as he is a part of why they happened.

    I'm also a little baffled as to what's behind your statements that he has no plate discipline, as well as your notion that Sheffield is anything but a very dangerous hitter.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  6. #80
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21
    Good lord you sound like Skip Bayless, since in fact something similar came from his mouth during 1st and 10 on Cold Pizza.

    And yes, I really do buy the fact Jeter isn't the best SS on the Yankees 25 man roster right now. The guy playing next to him, Alex Rodriguez is a FAR SUPERIOR SS than Derek Jeter can ever hope to be, both offensively and defensively.

    WS rings are just a byproduct of the club you're on. His rings actually enhance his entire overratedness, due to the fact, he's never been the best player on his team, and that he's a glorified role player. There have been, and will continue to be plenty of far better ballplayers than Derek Jeter who will never come close to sniffing a WS ring, let alone put one on.

    Derek Jeter = Gary Sheffield = Paul O'Neil. What do all three of them have in common? They all have enjoyed statistical success while playing for the YANKEES. Paul O'Neil's numbers drastically improved once putting on the pinstripes, just as Gary Sheffield's numbers have enjoyed similar results. IIRC, Sheffield had 1 good season way back when with the Padres, and that's it. If Derek Jeter weren't constantly surrounded with some of the best players money could buy, then he wouldn't be anything more than a below to average glove SS with limited plate discipline who can find the gap here and again.

    He's not even in the top 5 of best SS in the game over the last 10 years, so I don't know where you magically made up that he's one of the best 3/4. Please prove me wrong.
    Nate, while I agree with ya that Jeter is overrated, I think you're going a bit too far with this one, bud

    If Jeter finishes his career with a normal aging pattern and plays at least into his late 30s, then he'll be a deserving Hall of Famer and very possible top 10 shortstop in the game's history. Of course, by that point people will probably be trying to throw his name into the top five - and thereby continuing to overrate him - but that's not happening unless he has a few more high caliber peak seasons like his 1999 campaign. Still though, as long as he doesn't flame out in next few years, he should be a deserving Hall of Famer.

    Shortstops from the last 10 years greater than Jeter: Larkin and Rodriguez. Garciaparra has some peak seasons greater than Jeter's peak seasons (sans Jeter's 1999), but Nomar hasn't been able to stay off the DL and Jeter crushes him in career value. Jeter's also been a better player than Tejada so far, but Miguel's two years younger so he has a shot to change that. Guys like Michael Young, Jhonny Peralta, Felipe Lopez, Rafael Furcal, etc. have had a few good seasons, but they're all many seasons away from being able to lump themselves in with the Jeter class. That doesn't mean they can't do it, but it just hasn't happened yet.

    And FWIW, Gary Sheffield's been an absolute beast his entire career. :
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 05-04-2006 at 05:24 PM.
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  7. #81
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21
    Good lord you sound like Skip Bayless, since in fact something similar came from his mouth during 1st and 10 on Cold Pizza.

    And yes, I really do buy the fact Jeter isn't the best SS on the Yankees 25 man roster right now. The guy playing next to him, Alex Rodriguez is a FAR SUPERIOR SS than Derek Jeter can ever hope to be, both offensively and defensively.

    WS rings are just a byproduct of the club you're on. His rings actually enhance his entire overratedness, due to the fact, he's never been the best player on his team, and that he's a glorified role player. There have been, and will continue to be plenty of far better ballplayers than Derek Jeter who will never come close to sniffing a WS ring, let alone put one on.

    Derek Jeter = Gary Sheffield = Paul O'Neil. What do all three of them have in common? They all have enjoyed statistical success while playing for the YANKEES. Paul O'Neil's numbers drastically improved once putting on the pinstripes, just as Gary Sheffield's numbers have enjoyed similar results. IIRC, Sheffield had 1 good season way back when with the Padres, and that's it. If Derek Jeter weren't constantly surrounded with some of the best players money could buy, then he wouldn't be anything more than a below to average glove SS with limited plate discipline who can find the gap here and again.

    He's not even in the top 5 of best SS in the game over the last 10 years, so I don't know where you magically made up that he's one of the best 3/4. Please prove me wrong.

    Derek Jeter has certaintly been the best player on his team. I'd like to know who was better in 99. That was a WS year for the record. I'm not going to elevate the guy onto a pedestal that he hasn't earned, but I'll defend garbage arguments against him. Calling the guy a role player is where your argument failed to be logical and quickly became nothing more than personal bias. When it is all said and done, he will have a compelling argument for the Hall of Fame. One of the best ever? No. A "glorified role player"? Hell No.

    Concerning Sheffield.....take the time to look his numbers up (as with Jeter). The guy has regressed as a Yankee. His best seasons were with teams in Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Miami. They were damn good years too. Yet, you claim that he had one good year for San Diego once. Next time, just come out and say I HATE THE YANKEES. I will have a lot more respect for that than some poorly thought out argument that tries to crap on anything in pinstripes.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  8. #82
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Oh, that reminds me...I think Tejada is underrated. Whatever that means, I've kind of lost touch at this point.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...N/attend.shtml
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...or?season=2003

    Since it's opening GABP has played neutral in regards to runs scored at .989 - which means teams score 1% less in GABP than they do on average.

    Over the same time period, Ameriquest has a factor of 1.17 - 17% above average.

    Now yes, GABP is slightly homer friendly, but it kills other extra base hits, functionally negating the homer boost. The idea that it's some launching pad is borne more out of anecdotal media commentary and the fact that the Reds hit a ton of homers everywhere, they just happen to play 81 games at home.
    I disagree. The Reds led the NL in doubles last year. The Reds have been a swing for the fences all or nothing team for the last few years. That skewers any data concerning GABP. The ballpark played in has something to do with offensive production but the team that plays in it has more to do with how the ballpark is looked at. There are too many variables involved to treat these statistics as fact. Formulas are great but if it can't judge something with 100% accuracy then the results cannot be treated as fact.

  10. #84
    Dunnilicious creek14's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Overrated by Geo Grande: Jim Edmonds

    Underrated by Marty B.: Adam Dunn and EdE
    Will trade this space for a #1 starter.

  11. #85
    White Castle to the Nile Crash Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Outside of Pierre, LoDuca and Bradley, I'd call that an unrated list. I suspect the overwhelming majority of solid, but casual baseball fans don't even know who the rest of the guys are.
    On the contrary, they're not only rated, they're annointed. While it's tough to come up with a criteria for what makes one underrated or overrated, it's uncommonly simple to come up with a list of saber-annointed darlings.

    If excuses are made for your every failure; if it's always the team's fault for its handling of the player; if glaring weaknesses are habitually glossed over in favor of one predetermined strength; if third, fourth and fifth chances become the order of the day rather than re-evaluation of the player, then there is an obvious overrating going on.

    As common and formulaic as the everyman sabermetrics expert has become in the baseball community (and clearly "an idea newly grasped stirs the blood to aggressiveness"), there's no doubt these players are widely known and, in fact, overrated on baseball message boards. This is with whom we interact in the high times of the information revolution, so it's pretty easy to see who rates and who doesn't among the internet fans.

    Was this thread really about whom the casual fan thinks highly? It's tough to even find a casual baseball fan anymore. What I find is that too often you either follow the game daily, or you don't follow it at all because you have major beefs with what the game has become.
    "I fought because I understood and could not bear to understand, that it was my destiny -- unlike that of my father, whose fate it was to hear the roar of the crowd -- to sit in the stands with most men and acclaim others. It was my fate, my destiny, my end, to be a fan."

  12. #86
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Handofdeath
    I disagree. The Reds led the NL in doubles last year. The Reds have been a swing for the fences all or nothing team for the last few years. That skewers any data concerning GABP. The ballpark played in has something to do with offensive production but the team that plays in it has more to do with how the ballpark is looked at. There are too many variables involved to treat these statistics as fact. Formulas are great but if it can't judge something with 100% accuracy then the results cannot be treated as fact.
    Once again, this is the simplest math in the world. There are no ifs or variances here. We know EXACTLY how the GAB played compared to other park in the 2003-2005 time period. It's a matter of clear and established record.

    That people think the park is more offensively skewed is a matter of faulty perception based upon the Reds having a powerful offense and horrible pitching. You seem to recognize this, but then in the same breath you act like that belongs in the equation inside of being factored out of it. The Reds have a powerful offense and horrible pitching on the road too. When you compare that to how the home park has played it turns out that the GAB has been a neutral park in its three-year existence. If you want to be more precise. It was neutral in 2003, a pitching-skewed park in 2004 and an offense-skewed park in 2005 (those changes reflecting the effects of creative groundskeeping on the game).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #87
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Crash Davis
    On the contrary, they're not only rated, they're annointed. While it's tough to come up with a criteria for what makes one underrated or overrated, it's uncommonly simple to come up with a list of saber-annointed darlings.
    You, of course, realize that you're swiftly going mad, right? Randy Winn and Jason Michaels have never been anointed as anything by anyone. They play baseball for a living, better than some, worse than others. I've yet to hear anyone anoint them as anything more than that. And then you take a leap to "saber-annointed darlings," which is precious. First off, is there an official mechanism for this anointing? Does Bill James rub some sort of oil on their foreheads and give them a pointy hat?

    Aside from that, you've got a bunch of guys on your overrated list that places like Baseball Prospectus have been down on (look no farther than Francouer). If you somehow think you've compiled a list of "saber-anointed darlings," I hate to tell you that you're working from a platform of extreme ignorance. For something you claim is uncommonly simple, you've made a complete mess of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crash Davis
    If excuses are made for your every failure; if it's always the team's fault for its handling of the player; if glaring weaknesses are habitually glossed over in favor of one predetermined strength; if third, fourth and fifth chances become the order of the day rather than re-evaluation of the player, then there is an obvious overrating going on.
    This is where I'll suggest you rest and check your heart rate because this is a screed that I suspect is only going to make sense to you. For my part, it's a complete non-sequitor.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crash Davis
    As common and formulaic as the everyman sabermetrics expert has become in the baseball community (and clearly "an idea newly grasped stirs the blood to aggressiveness"), there's no doubt these players are widely known and, in fact, overrated on baseball message boards. This is with whom we interact in the high times of the information revolution, so it's pretty easy to see who rates and who doesn't among the internet fans.
    If you think Russ Branyan, Hee Sop Choi and Carlos Pena qualify as household names, I think you need to get out to more households. As far as them being overrated, I suggest you go and check out where the decidedly non-numbers-oriented folks at BA ranked those guys, because no one liked those three better than BA. The only "everyman sabermetrics expert" cases I've heard for them is that they might give you cheap production. I don't recall anyone on this message board, and it's the only one I frequent, claiming one of those three was headed for any type of stardom.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crash Davis
    Was this thread really about whom the casual fan thinks highly? It's tough to even find a casual baseball fan anymore. What I find is that too often you either follow the game daily, or you don't follow it at all because you have major beefs with what the game has become.
    Yes, I think it's fair to say it was about what the casual fan/mass media perceives. Seems to me it was pretty clearly about that, thus the constant mention of high-profile players in the overrated category.

    As for finding casual fans, go to a game and talk to the person next you. That person is probably a casual fan.

    I'm not touching "or you don't follow it at all because you have major beefs with what the game has become" because that smacks of being a trip wire for another screed.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #88
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Overratedness is absolutely, positively a perceptual phenomenon of the casual fan, Crash.

    You're "rated" when people talk about you constantly. People in Cincinnati talked about Sean Casey, wore more Casey than Dunn jerseys, called him the Mayor. In other words, he was rated highly. Too highly. His talent fell well, well short of his perceived value vis. the fans.

    Was Casey overrated by the national media? I think so, to some extent--insofar as he was portrayed as the Reds' best hitter for several seasons. Which is patently false.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-04-2006 at 06:17 PM.

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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Once again, this is the simplest math in the world. There are no ifs or variances here. We know EXACTLY how the GAB played compared to other park in the 2003-2005 time period. It's a matter of clear and established record.

    That people think the park is more offensively skewed is a matter of faulty perception based upon the Reds having a powerful offense and horrible pitching. You seem to recognize this, but then in the same breath you act like that belongs in the equation inside of being factored out of it. The Reds have a powerful offense and horrible pitching on the road too. When you compare that to how the home park has played it turns out that the GAB has been a neutral park in its three-year existence. If you want to be more precise. It was neutral in 2003, a pitching-skewed park in 2004 and an offense-skewed park in 2005 (those changes reflecting the effects of creative groundskeeping on the game).
    But my point is the ballpark doesn't "play." The players play. How can GABP be judged properly when one season it's a hitters park and the next season it's not? Because the equation says so? If x+y=z how can you tell what x is if y keeps changing? Say for example Pujols gets hurt. The whole team revolves around him and now the Cardinals get pitched differently because of it. Their whole outlook at the plate is different. How then do you judge Busch Stadium? Or say for example that Cincy has a rainy summer and the grounders start slowing up because the field is wet? The stadium is what the stadium is unless the groundskeepers start screwing with things. Math is not the problem. I know math. I think philosophy is what the problem is.

  16. #90
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: Most Overrated/Underrated MLB Players

    Quote Originally Posted by Handofdeath
    But my point is the ballpark doesn't "play." The players play. How can GABP be judged properly when one season it's a hitters park and the next season it's not? Because the equation says so? If x+y=z how can you tell what x is if y keeps changing? Say for example Pujols gets hurt. The whole team revolves around him and now the Cardinals get pitched differently because of it. Their whole outlook at the plate is different. How then do you judge Busch Stadium? Or say for example that Cincy has a rainy summer and the grounders start slowing up because the field is wet? The stadium is what the stadium is unless the groundskeepers start screwing with things. Math is not the problem. I know math. I think philosophy is what the problem is.
    that's the beauty of rate type statistics. As long as Pujols doesn't only miss home games his affect on the park rating for that year is immaterial individually. Were he to succom to some odd malady that precluded him from participating in games played at home, then you would see a disparity that would really impact the ratings. All of this, of course, ignores the fact that, generally, park ratings are best viewed over ~3 year runs.
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