Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 46

Thread: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

  1. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Cumming, GA
    Posts
    619

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    yup, grad school has a lot to do with baseball. he's only 20 give him some time.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    1,192

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by tbball10
    yup, grad school has a lot to do with baseball. he's only 20 give him some time.
    Niether does you calling people idiots just because they don't agree with you, that was kind of the point. Yes, he is only 20 and it is early in the season. Nobody is saying give up on him. They are saying let him dominate before people start calling him our future ace, because that's what's happening. People are annointing him the next great pitcher. "He was our #1 draft pick, he has to be good. He came from Texas, where Josh Beckett and Kerry Wood and Roger Clemens came from. He throws hard and has a power curve....." On and on and on. But he hasn't put it all together. I certainly hope he does, and may even feel that he will, but he has to show it. What is so wrong with that. He hasn't done it. He hasn't shown any kind of consistency. Will he? Maybe, maybe not.
    Last edited by rdiersin; 05-04-2006 at 10:06 AM.

  4. #18
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,661

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by tbball10
    you guys are idiots. like every bailey supporter has said, while he's working on his change up he is going to be inconsistent. but he's shown flashes of his potential, and like i said, as long as he stays healthy i'm happy and he will develop into a great starting pitcher.

    jeez trade rumor, his era is 3.98 in the first week of may.....big deal
    Ok, at the end of the season last year, his ERA was 4.43, his WHIP was 1.46. I see a trend developing.

    I did a little homework, picked a few current aces and checked out their minor league careers. Here's what I found:

    Roy Oswalt
    Minors-6 yrs. 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.11 K/9, 2.51 W/9
    Majors-5 yrs. 3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.80 K/9, 2.06 W/9

    Rich Harden
    Minors-5 y, 2.99/1.17/10.89/4.06
    Majors-3 y, 3.60/1.27/8.14/3.76

    Jason Schmidt
    Minors-6y, 3.41/1.33/8.39/3.82
    Majors-11y, 3.95/1.32/8.01/3.55

    Dontrelle Willis
    Minors-3y, 2.03/0.93/7.38/1.66
    Majors-3y, 3.27/1.25/6.83/2.64

    Josh Beckett
    Minors-4y, 1.97/0.97/11.59/2.15
    Majors-5y, 3.46/1.23/8.97/3.30

    A good comp I found for Bailey is AJ Burnett. Power pitcher, control and command issues, flashes of brilliance but never living up to expectations. Take a look:

    AJ Burnett
    Minors-7y, 3.88/1.38/10.77/5.52
    Majors-7y, 3.73/1.28/7.94/3.97

    And I have always love AJ because his stuff can be so dominating, but then he is so dang frustrating because you look up and the other team has 3 or 4 runs and his pitch count is up, yet he seemingly dominated the other team. A homer here, a few walks and a base hit. And that seems to be Homer's MO. Now, you might argue that Burnett made a lot of money that way, which is true, but then think of the initial investment the Reds already have in Bailey and then the kind of money AJ made when someone is finally betting on him hitting his prime for them. Talk about pyrite.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  5. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,160

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by tbball10
    you guys are idiots. like every bailey supporter has said, while he's working on his change up he is going to be inconsistent. but he's shown flashes of his potential, and like i said, as long as he stays healthy i'm happy and he will develop into a great starting pitcher.

    jeez trade rumor, his era is 3.98 in the first week of may.....big deal
    A) The kid was selected with the #7 pick in the draft. I don't think it's too much to ask that he be able to string a few quality performances together almost two years later.

    B) The FSL is a pitcher's haven. Guys like Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, Phillip Hughes, Kevin Slowey, Sean Gallagher, Alay Soler, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Elbert, Mike Pelfrey and Cole Hamels have been tearing through that league, most with ERAs less than half what Bailey's sporting these days. This is a league where top pitchers dominate, not one where they struggle.

    C) If Bailey is ever to become something special, one of these days he's going to have to do special things on a consistent basis. Right now, he is what he is -- a kid with the potential to become something much better, but far from the head of the class. It's nice that every now and then he does something notable to get the bees buzzing, but that's not the hallmark of a kid who deserves an "ace" label.
    Last edited by M2; 05-04-2006 at 11:36 AM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,321

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    He is 20. He is working on learning his changeup which at the time is mediocre at best. He is refining his curve which is a bit above average. Am I worried that he "gave up" 5 runs? No, like another poster said, he left runners on base and his bullpen buddy Kyle Edens boasting his 6.92 ERA and his 21 hits in 13 innings came in to get rocked. The first two hitters off Edens faces smashed doubles. Yes, Bailey was responsible for those runners, but it didnt help that the worst bullpen guy around came in to relieve him and got absolutely rocked.
    All that said, If Bailey is still struggling at the end of May next year, then I will start to worry. Until then, I am not going to be worried about it because the kid is still VERY young and is working on his pitches.

  7. #21
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,661

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    He is 20. He is working on learning his changeup which at the time is mediocre at best. He is refining his curve which is a bit above average. Am I worried that he "gave up" 5 runs? No, like another poster said, he left runners on base and his bullpen buddy Kyle Edens boasting his 6.92 ERA and his 21 hits in 13 innings came in to get rocked. The first two hitters off Edens faces smashed doubles. Yes, Bailey was responsible for those runners, but it didnt help that the worst bullpen guy around came in to relieve him and got absolutely rocked.
    All that said, If Bailey is still struggling at the end of May next year, then I will start to worry. Until then, I am not going to be worried about it because the kid is still VERY young and is working on his pitches.
    So, other minor leaguers posting much more impressive numbers at a similar age are not "working on pitches?" You do not have a problem with a high first round pick "working on his pitches" to the point that the numbers would reflect someone who is a total project, if that is indeed the problem? Shouldn't an ace be polishing pitches that take him from very good to dominant, and what so far has indicated that Homer is even very good?

    What I do not get at all is the justification for a bullpenner letting in runs on baserunners Homer put on base. So what? That is what WHIP is all about--baserunners become potential runs. If Homer didn't put the guys on base, then they couldn't be let in by the reliever. Those are the rules for every pitcher and their ERA, so why should Homer be excused for runners that are his responsibility eventually scoring?
    Last edited by traderumor; 05-04-2006 at 10:51 AM.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  8. #22
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Homer is likely two years away from helping the major league club unless the Reds want to rush him.

    Seems to me he should be left in High A until he shows he can e consistent from start to start.

    Generally the jump from A to AA is regarded as the toughest in the minors.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,321

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    So, other minor leaguers posting much more impressive numbers at a similar age are not "working on pitches?" You do not have a problem with a high first round pick "working on his pitches" to the point that the numbers would reflect someone who is a total project, if that is indeed the problem? Shouldn't an ace be polishing pitches that take him from very good to dominant, and what so far has indicated that Homer is even very good?

    What I do not get at all is the justification for a bullpenner letting in runs on baserunners Homer put on base. So what? That is what WHIP is all about--baserunners become potential runs. If Homer didn't put the guys on base, then they couldn't be let in by the reliever. Those are the rules for every pitcher and their ERA, so why should Homer be excused for runners that are his responsibility eventually scoring?
    With the case of some, and notice I said some of the guys you listed, are much more finess pitchers. Homer can dial it up on the gun, and in HS he probably didnt have to throw many change ups. With that fastball he had, guys knew it and they had to adjust for it. If he dropped in a curve, and they were waiting for that fastball, regardless of how good or bad it was, they were left looking like a complete fool. Now that the hitters are more advanced, he doesnt have that option and he is needing to work on his other pitchers a lot more.
    Finesse type pitchers, throughout high school had already been working on their breaking stuff and change a lot more becuase their fastball wasnt enough by itself to blow guys away.

    I dont want to give Homer a pass for the runners he left on, but it does have to be said. If a team has a good pen, then the runners the starters leave on base usually dont score. The Sarasota bullpen has three guys in it with ERA's over 6. As for Baileys WHIP, its 1.04 and I am hardly worried about that.

  10. #24
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,661

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Ray Oswalt, finesse pitcher? Josh Beckett, finesse pitcher? Rich Harden, finesse pitcher? Jason Schmidt, who has been a late bloomer, isn't even really a finesse pitcher. Maybe Willis. So, that's one person on the whole list who is finesse, unless we have differing definitions of what constitutes a finesse pitcher.

    As for Homer's WHIP, I suspect it will end up in the 1.30-1.40 range before all is said and done for this year.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,321

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    TR I was talking about the lsit of guys you put together who are dominating the FSL.

    Jair Jurrjens is a finesse pitcher. His fastball sits in the high 80's and low 90's. He also is either ON or OFF with his breaking stuff. Last year he went on an 8 or 9 game tear where his ERA sat slightly under 2.00, then he went out and got hit again.

    Matt Garza is 2 1/2 years older than Bailey is, came out of college. He should be more advanced than Bailey. Garza went into college with a fastball that he had no control over. His freshman year he went 1-6 with a 9.55 ERA.

    Philip Hughes doesnt throw quite as hard as Bailey, but he is close. He does have more control of his secondary pitches though. His curve isnt as good as Baileys from scouting reports, but his slider is real good and he commands them. Command of his secondary pitches is why Hughes puts up better numbers than Bailey.

    Kevin Slowey is another college pitcher who is 2 years older than Bailey. He has a fastball that sits in the high 80s and low 90s. Slowey throws a slider and a changeup that is approaching a plus pitch.

    Sean Gallagher from what I have read sits in the low 90s with his fastball that can touch 94 at times and has a very good curve, a straight change and a slider. Scouting reports have said that he has very good command, but does not have overpowering stuff and his change and slider are both below average.

    Alay Soler is 26 years old. I am not going into that one other than trying to compare him to a 19 year old is just very poor.

    Yovani Gallardo is a power pitcher with a very good curveball. Last year in A ball his k ratio was lower than Baileys was, but this year its a bit higher. Its just May 4th though. This year their hit ratios are 6.75 to 6.82 in favor of Gallardo over Bailey and walk ratios are 2.36 to 2.55 per 9 in favor of Gallardo. They both have very good WHIP's of 1.01 and 1.04. The difference is in ERA 1.69 to 3.98. What the difference is there, I do not know becuase with numbers that are so close in everything else, their ERA should be a lot closer than 2.30 apart. Defense maybe? Bullpen maybe? I dont know, but something doesnt seem right.

    Scott Elbert is one of those guys who has by different accounts either sits in the low 90s with his fastball or touches the low 90s with it while sitting in the high 80s with it. He has control over his breaking stuff. He is a finesse pitcher.

    Pelfrey is a college pitcher who is 2 years older than Bailey. He is more polished. You should expect him to be better than Bailey in the same league.

    Cole Hamels is absolutely in my opinion the best pitcher in the minor leagues. He has amazing control and amazing stuff. Hamels however is 2 1/2 years older than Bailey is, but also made his 4th stop in the FSL this year before his fast promotions. Hamels made a combined 12 starts in 3 years in the FSL before this year. I am not going to try and say anything against Cole, the kid is real.

  12. #26
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,160

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    doug, I listed the guys who are dominating the FSL, not traderumor.

    You can come up with a a zillion excuses for why other pitchers are pitching the pants off of Bailey in the FSL (and we both know that was just a thumbnail of guys who are absoloutely wrecking that level and that there's dozens of others to filter in between them and where Homer's at).

    If your argument is that Homer's not really ready to tool on High A hitters (though other guys his age like Elbert, Hughes and Gallagher are -- all of whom thrived in Low A as well) then that's not an argument FOR Homer Bailey. The FSL is probably the most pitching-friendly circuit in the minors. It's a league in which pitchers of all stripes shine. If Homer can't do that in the FSL this year then I would suggest that, at a bare minimum, he's a lot farther away than anyone would like him to be.

    BTW, I agree with you that this most recent start shouldn't be used as evidence that Homer is a bad pitcher. Nor should his previous start be used as evidence that Homer's a great pitcher. He's an inconsistent pitcher with flaws a lot greater than enthusiasts like to admit and a lot of hard work in front him before he ranks among the better pitchers in his league or age grouping.
    Last edited by M2; 05-04-2006 at 01:01 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  13. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,321

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    M2, TR sorry for mixing up the posts. I skim through things at times and blend them together.

    As for me having excuses for Bailey, maybe I am a little bit. But I dont find them to far fetched either.

    The FSL is a very pitcher friendly league, but where Sarasota plays, they have one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league. Someone had the park factors for the leagues and the teams around here before, but I cant seem to find them.

    Lets take a look at Bailey's home and road splits though. Small sample size of course, but lets look anyways.

    Home: 15.2ip, 18 hits, 2bb, 14k, 5.74 ERA
    Away: 16.0ip, 6 hits, 7bb, 19k, 2.00 ERA

    Both home and away he has 3 starts each. On the road he is dominating and at home he is struggling. It will be interesting to see how it plays out over the course of the entire season as this is obviously a small sample size and could be attributed to luck or just chance.

    After I get back from seeing Kremchek this afternoon I plan on taking another look into his stats a little more deeply, but I have no time right now to do it. So expect a little bit more later tonight on breaking down Baileys season so far.

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,321

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    Oh and M2, you hit it on the head with Bailey about his last two starts. I will admit I am probably a little defensive of the guy becuase I really like him (kind of like I am with Griffey but not to the same extent). Oh well, it will happen sometimes.

  15. #29
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    North Carolina
    Posts
    25,388

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    wait he threw a no hitter?

  16. #30
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,160

    Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

    doug, interesting home and away numbers on Bailey so far. Though I maintain the best hitting park in the FSL would probably be the best pitching park in the Texas League.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25