Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    North Dakota
    Posts
    1,073

    4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    Staff ERA is now 4.43, 9th place in the NL. Staff strikeouts rank 6th.

    How many of you think they have a chance to keep the ERA under 5 for the season this year? And if they do, what do some of you statisticians project for a win total?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    SE Of the NC Blue Ridge Mtns.
    Posts
    1,462

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    under 5 I'd say the certainly win more than they lose
    I'm East of you. Be very very worried. Not quite OBX. But, be worried.

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    10

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,178

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blarkin
    I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.
    While this has been covered extensively elsewhere, the park factors for GABP to date (since it opened) show it as a homer-friendly, but run neutral park. It is very double/triple unfriendly.

    Based on the numbers, the Reds hitting & pitching the last few years are more reflective of their hitting & pitching talent than park effects.

    A number of us have also gone through the exercise of showing how the team can maintain an ERA under 5.00 for the entire season. Basically, we need to NOT have a starter get 30+ starts with a mid 6.00 ERA and we need the 11th and 12th guys in the bullpen to not implode completely.

    I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but it very reasonably could happen. Do a search through my post history to find the full explication.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    5,872

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    While this has been covered extensively elsewhere, the park factors for GABP to date (since it opened) show it as a homer-friendly, but run neutral park. It is very double/triple unfriendly.

    Based on the numbers, the Reds hitting & pitching the last few years are more reflective of their hitting & pitching talent than park effects.

    A number of us have also gone through the exercise of showing how the team can maintain an ERA under 5.00 for the entire season. Basically, we need to NOT have a starter get 30+ starts with a mid 6.00 ERA and we need the 11th and 12th guys in the bullpen to not implode completely.

    I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but it very reasonably could happen. Do a search through my post history to find the full explication.
    This is very true. i would add one point, however. For the Reds to keep that staff ERA under 5, I think another starter needs to be brought in. Between Claussen, Ramirez, Williams, Milton, Wilson etc. I think it's entirely possible that one of them will accumulate a high number of starts and a 6+ ERA. One or even two might surprise, but one is bound to hit his career norms.

    If the Reds are able to pick up another starter that's capable of pitching a good number of innings with a 4.5 ERA, I think this team can and will compete.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    SE Of the NC Blue Ridge Mtns.
    Posts
    1,462

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    I get tired of seeing the HR numbers by park. It has less to do with the Park as it does the team that plays there. The Reds have a team with a very powerful offense that hits lots of HR's period. The other thing is that they have a pitching staff, particularly starting staff that are notorious for giving up a ton of HR's. I don't think the Power numbers would be a lot different if the Reds called another park home unless it was say RFK or something just so out of the ordinary.
    I'm East of you. Be very very worried. Not quite OBX. But, be worried.

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,752

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    This is very true. i would add one point, however. For the Reds to keep that staff ERA under 5, I think another starter needs to be brought in. Between Claussen, Ramirez, Williams, Milton, Wilson etc. I think it's entirely possible that one of them will accumulate a high number of starts and a 6+ ERA. One or even two might surprise, but one is bound to hit his career norms.
    Not necessaily disagreeing with you, but none of Claussen, Williams, Milton or Wilson has an ERA anywhere close to 6.00+ as a "career norm".

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,178

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad
    I get tired of seeing the HR numbers by park. It has less to do with the Park as it does the team that plays there. The Reds have a team with a very powerful offense that hits lots of HR's period. The other thing is that they have a pitching staff, particularly starting staff that are notorious for giving up a ton of HR's. I don't think the Power numbers would be a lot different if the Reds called another park home unless it was say RFK or something just so out of the ordinary.
    What park factor does is compare how many homers are hit (or runs scored, doubles, etc.) in GABP by the Reds and their opponents relative to the number of homers hit by the Reds and their opponents on the road.

    So the park factor is the ratio of these things. So a 1.2 Home Run park factor means that the Reds AND their opponents hit 20% more homers at home than on the road. Essentially, this controls for the quality of the team playing in that park. That is to say, if the Reds lost Adam Dunn tomorrow, their park factor would not change.

    Again, Park Factors are not counts of events -- they are ratios comparing the rate at which events happen at one stadium compared to other stadiums.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Posts
    3,758

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    I believe Harang and Arroyo end the year 3.50-3.75. We need Claussen to end the year 4.00-4.25. Then we are really looking for 4.50-4.75 out of two of Ramirez, Milton, Williams, and Wilson, and you could even throw in Germano. I like Ramirez's chances, although it might be too early for him to be in the majors. The other guys need good (not great, but good) years in my estimation to hit that target.

  11. #10
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,092

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    It will if six out of every seven runs given up continue to be unearned...

  12. #11
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,591

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    3.99 Over the last 30 days (9th in majors)
    2.07 Over the last 7 days (leaders)

    Good combination recently, I think bully ERA is under 2 over the last 3 weeks or so.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Hamilton, Ohio
    Posts
    205

    Re: 4.43! Will it stay below 5?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blarkin
    I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.
    GABP might be a hitters park but those are not hitting teams besides the Card, right now there winning on all pitching.
    I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25