Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

[dougdirt]

So I wrote this little peice for my website and basically it compares Jay Bruce with Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns in their first time around the midwest league. Take it all for what its worth, which is pretty much just a little bit of fun to look at. But I thought I would share it with you guys incase you dont check my site.

I just wrote up a little piece for my website on Jay Bruce and his comparison to both Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns as 19 year old outfielders in the Midwest League. Anyways, here you go.

Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

You know, it is really hard to project players in the minor leagues as far as what they will do in the Major Leagues. It is even tougher to do with a player who is still in Single A baseball. So far this season I have been extremely impressed with Jay Bruce, who is currently playing for Dayton in the Midwest League. He is just a month in, as the minor league season started April 6th and today is now May 6th. Bruce has played in 26 games and has put up some impressive stats at the plate. Throw in the fact that he has been through slumps of 0-18 and 1-15 this season and it really jumps out at you.

Like I stated before, there isn’t exactly an easy way to project how someone will be as a major league when you are talking about a player who is still in the mow minor leagues like Bruce is. On the other hand, it sure is fun to compare what a player does in the same league as other guys at the same age. Two of the Reds current stud outfielder, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns both have played in the Midwest league where Jay is currently playing. Lets take a look at their stats for their season in the Midwest League at the age of 19.

Adam Dunn - 1999 Midwest League Season - Age 19
Year 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	SO 	Avg 	Obp 	Slg
1999 	313     62 	96 	16 	2 	11 	44 	46 	64 	.307 	.399 	.476

Austin Kearns - 1999 Midwest League Season - Age 19
Year 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	SO 	Avg 	Obp 	Slg
1999 	426     72 	110 	36 	5 	13 	48 	50 	120 	.258 	.340 	.458

Jay Bruce - 2006 Midwest League Season - Age 19
Year 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	SO 	Avg 	Obp 	Slg
2006 	104 	18 	29 	9 	2 	5 	18 	8 	20 	.279 	.322 	..548

Now lets say Bruce as man at bats as Austin Kearns did in 1999, that would put him on pace for 37 doubles, 21 home runs and 74 RBI. Will he stay on that current pace? No one really knows, but at least early this season, Bruce is showing some good power in his bat and he is producing runs. Not to bad for a kid who some scouts have said that his bat won't come around for a few years.

[icehole3]

I think he's a lot like Kearns, at least his arm is... he has a rifle arm.

[Oxilon]

What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye? Seems that he's on a pace to have similiar numbers to Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns for every category besides walks.

[traderumor]

Bruce seems like a good candidate to either see Sarasota this year or skip it altogether and start next year in Chatty.

[edabbs44]

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

[BuckU]

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

Major leauge pitching happened.

[registerthis]

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

His BA upsets you in spite of the fact that he has an OBP of .385 during his time in the majors? You get upset very easily.

[savafan]

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

You think that's bad, look at how far Dunn's OBP has dropped!

Trade him now!

Year	Team Name	League	Age	Org.	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP 	Avg	Obp	Slg	Ops
1998 	Billings	Pio	18	Cin	Rk	34	125	26	36	3	1	4	13	4	2	22	23	3	1	0	1	3 	.288	.404	.424	828
1999 	Rockford	Midw	19	Cin	A	93	313	62	96	16	2	11	44	21	9	46	64					 	.307	*.399	.476	*875
2000 	Dayton	        Midw	20	Cin	A	122	420	101	118	29	1	16	79	24	5	100	101	12	4	0	6	10 	.281	.428	.469	897
2001 	Chattanooga	Sou	21	Cin	AA	39	140	30	48	9	0	12	31	6	3	24	31		3	1	0	1 	.343	*.441	.664	*1105
2001 	Louisville	IL	21	Cin	AAA	55	210	44	69	13	0	20	53	5	1	38	51		3	0	1	1 	.329	*.434	.676	*1110
2001 	Cincinnati Reds	MLB	21	Cin	MLB	66	244	54	64	18	1	19	43	4	2	38	74	4	2	0	0	4 	.262	.371	.578	949
2002 	Cincinnati Reds	MLB	22	Cin	MLB	158	535	84	133	28	2	26	71	19	9	128	170	9	13	1	3	8 	.249	.400	.454	854
2003 	Cincinnati Reds	MLB	23	Cin	MLB	116	381	70	82	12	1	27	57	8	2	74	126	10	8	0	4	4 	.215	.354	.465	819
2004 	Cincinnati Reds	MLB	24	Cin	MLB	161	568	105	151	34	0	46	102	6	1	108	195	5	11	0	0	8 	.266	.388	.569	957
2005 	Cincinnati Reds	MLB	25	Cin	MLB	160	543	107	134	35	2	40	101	4	2	114	168	12	14	0	2	6 	.247	.387	.540	927

[KronoRed]

Avg has dropped Homers have gone up.

Good trade off if you ask me.

[Superdude]

What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye?

Everyone said he had good patience when we drafted him, so I wouldn't be too worried yet over 100AB's

[BRM]

Avg has dropped Homers have gone up.

Good trade off if you ask me.

Strikeouts have went up as well. More K's, more production.

[KronoRed]

Strikeouts have went up as well. More K's, more production.

I love strike outs

[BRM]

I love strike outs

Doesn't everyone?

[savafan]

I love strike outs

strikouts are sKrappy

[OnBaseMachine]

What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye? Seems that he's on a pace to have similiar numbers to Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns for every category besides walks.

IIRC, Bruce was rated as having the second best plate discipline among high school hitters in the 2005 draft. I think Bruce will take the path of Marlins prospect Jeremy Hermida. He was rated as having great plate discipline coming out of the draft - his walk rates his first year was OK, but it wasn't until year two when he started showing that great eye.

I am very high on Jay Bruce. The power he is showing at 19 years old is very encouraging. I believe he now has 16(9 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs) extra-base hits in just over 100 atbats. I hope to see him protecting Adam Dunn in the Reds lineup in a few years.