Any idea who we could be taking this year? I'd love to get Ian Kennedy, but I doubt he would drop to us. Maybe Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain?
I was a huge Ian Kennedy fan coming into this year, but considering that his velocity has dropped a little bit this season and his overall numbers aren't that great, I would be disappointed if the Reds drafted him with the 8th pick. Right now I would be happy with one of the following: LHP Andrew Miller(UNC), RHP Daniel Bard(UNC), RHP Brandon Morrow(Cal), RHP Max Scherzer(Missouri), or RHP Joba Chamberlain(Nebraska). Only two college hitters are even remotely worth taking with the 8th pick, and they are SS/3B Evan Longoria from Long Beach State and 1B Matt LaPorta from Florida. LaPorta has had a down season this year because of an injury but the potential is there for to take a Mark Teixeira path to the majors and eventually become a very good hitter.
Below are the 2006 stats for each pitcher I'm interested in with the 8th overall pick.
Andrew Miller-75.1 IP, 58 H, 1 HR, 21 BB, 79 K, 1.05 WHIP, 1.91 ERA
Daniel Bard-67.1 IP, 51 H, 4 HR, 26 BB, 73 K, 1.15 WHIP, 3.61 ERA
Brandon Morrow-93.1 IP, 65 H, 5 HR, 36 BB, 96 K, 1.09 WHIP, 1.74 ERA
Max Scherzer-45.2 IP, 32 H, 2 HR, 16 BB, 54 K, 1.06 WHIP, 2.36 ERA
Joba Chamberlain-62.1 IP, 52 H, 3 HR, 27 BB, 71 K, 1.27 WHIP, 3.61 ERA
Daniel Bard is the best and most realistic pick for the Reds. I obviously want Andrew Miller the most, but he will likely go No. 1 or 2 overall. Bard possesses the typical power pitcher frame at 6'4" and 205 pounds. Bard and fellow North Carolina left-hander Andrew Miller were rated the top two prospects in the Cape Cod League. He features a mid-90's fastball, a plus slider, and an improving changeup that he uses to get out lefthanded hitters. Bard is very comparable to Detroit pitcher Justin Verlander in both size and stuff wise.
The two hitters:
Evan Longoria-.355/.485/.625 36 bb/25 k
Matt LaPorta-.246/.386/.514 12 HR 21 bb/28 k
I miss Adam Dunn.
I want the top college pitcher on the board. Anythin else would be a huge disappointment.
I'd put Drew Stubbs right there with Longoria and Laporta as the top college position player. Plus-plus defensive centerfielder with great speed and power potential at the plate. If the bat doesn't come around all that well, you still have a very good defensive CF who probably is not far from the majors.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
Not sure I agree here. Using last year's top choice on Bruce would lead me to believe, best case scenario, with a long-term OF of Dunn, Kearns and Bruce. Close to the majors pitching is badly needed.Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
edabbs, it is a notion of most scouts that Jay will outgrow the CF position by the time he is ready for the majors and will eventually play a corner spot. So a CF wouldnt be a bad idea, but I do agree the Reds should go pitching at #8.
I like Joba Chamberlain. I read an article on him somewhere about him having great make-up to go along with his good stuff. He did have some tri-ceps tendinitis this past season but I don't know of any pitchers these days that don't have some issues with their arms.
After a quick search here is the article.
Article on Joba Chamberlain:
CHARLESTON, S.C.--After his team's spirited ninth-inning comeback attempt against Nebraska fell short, North Carolina State coach Elliott Avent wanted to speak to one player immediately. Getting up from his stance in the third-base coaching box, Avent looked over the Nebraska players coming out of their dugout and walked right up to Joba Chamberlain.
"You can say what you want about his stuff, but his makeup is off the charts. And he has great stuff," Avent said. "That's what I told him."
Chamberlain held Avent's team, which had scored 105 runs in its first six games, without a run on four hits for 7 1/3 innings in his first start of the year. That same Wolfpack team hung three quick runs on Nebraska's bullpen before that game finished with a 4-3 score, and then posted 18 more runs over its next two games.
N.C. State's offense was good; Chamberlain simply was better. He fired 92-96 mph fastballs with pinpoint accuracy, felt the confidence to throw curveballs and sliders for strikes in 3-1 and 3-2 counts and mixed in his changeup as he threw 100 pitches in his season debut.
"In different counts, he'll do things normal pitchers don't do," said N.C. State third baseman Matt Mangini, who's batting .730-3-21 on the year. "He's a pitcher who pitches and doesn’t give in."
As impressive as a repertoire that includes four pitches that are at least average is, one National League scouting director in attendance came away with a feeling similar to Avent's.
"His fastball got to 96 three times in the first inning, he showed two good breaking balls and his changeup wasn't too shabby, either," the veteran scout said. "But he really competed out there. He knew all of us were here and he knew that team could hit, and he really showed me something the way he competed his first time out. He was so poised."
Chamberlain's success against N.C. State shouldn't have proven much of a surprise to anyone who remembered his 2005 season. The 6-foot-3 righthander developed as Nebraska's ace with a 10-2, 2.81 record and 130 strikeouts in 119 innings to lead the Cornhuskers to a Big 12 regular season title and their third trip to the College World Series in five years. The Lincoln, Neb., native even started the CWS opener and pitched Nebraska to its first Omaha victory in school history.
His first big win came at Rice in his second start of the season. He held the Owls to an unearned run on four hits over 6 1/3 innings while recording nine strikeouts. He faces Rice again Saturday as Nebraska travels to Houston for the Coca-Cola Classic.
Chamberlain's emergence as that type of ace--one that figures to be a first-round pick this June--was one of the season's biggest surprises. It was also a success story that even the pitcher himself wouldn't have believed just three years earlier, when he was playing first and third base at Lincoln's Northeast High.
"If you had told me that (I'd start in the CWS for Nebraska), I would have said 'Can I buy that dream from you? What future planet are you living on?' " Chamberlain said. "As a kid growing up in Nebraska, you can't help but watch college baseball and dream about playing in the College World Series."
Chamberlain's path to fulfilling that dream didn't follow a natural course, though Chamberlain feels his unconventional roots, in baseball and in life, have played a major role in helping him develop the poise and competitive nature scouts, coaches and teammates rave about.
Anyone who attended a Nebraska game, or watched one on TV, has seen Chamberlain's father Harlan, clad in Nebraska gear and cheering his son on from his scooter. Harlan has been in the scooter since 1991 because of post-polio syndrome. He raised Joba and his older sister Trish as a single parent with an income so limited he often sold his own possessions to provide his children the toys and clothes they wanted.
"I didn't have a lot of things other people had, and my dad gave up a lot for us," Chamberlain said. "My dad has never once complained about anything. I admire that about him. How you're raised is how you become. I'm very thankful and very blessed to be in this situation. I've learned that things in life and in baseball don't come easy."
That's why a pitcher who went 3-2, 3.35 in 31 innings as a high school senior--the most he'd ever pitched in his life--and then 3-6, 5.23 at Division II Nebraska-Kearney never gave up his dream of pitching for Nebraska. Sure, he was curious why former Nebraska pitching coach Rob Childress left after two innings the first time Childress came to watch him at Kearney, but Childress eventually saw enough and brought Chamberlain in.
Chamberlain dropped 20 pounds during his first year at Nebraska, and the results were dramatic. He continued reshaping his body following his sophomore season, taming his eating habits and making better choices to trim 15 more pounds (and now is listed at 225 pounds) and reduce his body fat. He finished fourth on the Huskers team during fall agility drills. He also worked with new pitching coach Dave Bingham (Childress became Texas A&M’s head coach after 2005) to tweak his mechanics, instructions not every pitcher coming off an all-conference season might have wanted to follow.
Chamberlain now lands softer on his front side, which puts less stress on his legs and arm. His arm stroke feels freer, and, combined with the weight loss, he said he can better feel his body to detect mechanical flaws and then self-correct them. The results have been increased velocity and better command of his entire repertoire.
"I saw him throwing on the side one day in the fall, and it looked like he was 84-85 (mph) and it turned out he was 94," Nebraska coach Mike Anderson said. "He's just so much freer and looser."
Just like his persona on the mound. Chamberlain knows that if he shows his teammates he's in control, they'll feel more comfortable behind him. "I'll still show a fist pump every now and then," he said, but he's always working to keep things at an even keel. That extends off the field as well, where he's become something of a local celebrity. He appreciates all the attention he gets from media and fans. He'll sit for any interview and sign autographs for as many kids as approach him, though he admits he doesn't like to be bothered while he's eating.
Chamberlain's mindset is encapsulated in a tattoo on his right side that starts just below his armpit and runs down his side, a Bible verse from Galations 3:28. "There is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither bond nor free, there is neither male nor female, for ye are all one in Christ Jesus."
Chamberlain said there wasn't a long thought process into the inscription's placement. Thinking about it, however, maybe there is some irony in that a verse he said reminds him no one is better than anyone else is written directly below his powerful right arm. One that sets him apart from most other pitchers in the nation.
Not that'd he'd see it that way.
"All offseason it was Joba this and Joba that," Anderson said. "All the fans are talking about him and scouts have come to see him. I've seen too many kids get caught up in the hype and blow up. But he wasn't trying to blow up the (radar) gun, he just pitches his game."
At number 8 the Reds may well take the best high school pitcher on the board. In recent years they seem to be following the philosophy of taking them young. New GM now, but don't know if that will change the philosophy.
The problem with taking a college pitcher is that the best of them will likely be off the board by number 8. Reds may well prefer the top high school arm over the fifth or sixth top college arm.
Guy named Krenshaw is BA's top high school pitcher. If he's around at 8, don't be surprised if Reds take him.
I agree, I'd like someone who might be helping in 2-3 years not 5-6Originally Posted by edabbs44
I have seen that talked about slightly in a few little "mock drafts". Thing is, I dont know how Krivsky and his team feel about drafting philosphy, so it is real hard to know what they will do. It seems Krenshaw has seperated himself from the rest of the HS arms this year after coming into the year as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Draft is still a little bit away, but I cant wait.Originally Posted by Kc61
You may want to look into Buckley's drafts rather than Krivsky's. Matter of fact, I am not sure Krivsky has been on the "drafting/scouting/developmental" side of things much in his FO time through the years.
While I feel O'brien moved Renyolds to draft Bailey/Bruce because of a possible big resume payoff down the road, Krivsky may completely leave the top pick to Buckley(yeah, O'brien said the same thing, but I can't see Renyolds taking Bailey).
I like that the nebraska guy throws 4 pitches for strikes... screams quality major league pitcher to me
Will Joba Chamberlain already be gone when the Reds pick 8th is the question? We know that Andrew Miller, Brandon Morrow, and Max Scherzer will be gone and the Dodgers usuually pick high schoolers, so Krenshaw will most likely be gone. Lincuem will probably go first and a couple hitters will probably go in the first seven as well.
So the Reds will probably be picking between Daniel Bard and Joba Chamberlain. I woud be happy with either. I hope they don't pick another high school pitcher.
I've seen that as well but why would they have drafted him then? The old regime was probably banking on not signing Dunn and/or Kearns long term. But everything I've read on Stubbs is that he will not hit. If so, that will be a tough sell to the fans.Originally Posted by dougdirt
Becuase you draft the best player available in my opinion, and he was the best guy available. He is pretty much tearing the cover off the ball in Dayton right now.