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Thread: MLB Draft

  1. #166
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    That said, I too would be dissapointed if this year, we took a HS arm. The reason is because I think if we could get a college arm that is close to ready(i.e. a Jared Weaver type), then we could have a small window of 2007/2008/2009 that we could legitemittly contend for the playoffs with.
    Problem is, there aren't any pitchers like that in this year's draft. Weaver would have most likely gone #1 overall in his draft two years ago had it not been for Scott Boras (although Stephen Drew was also in that draft...and advised by Boras). No one in this draft has a comparable combination of size, stuff, ceiling, production in college, and likelihood of making an immediate impact in the majors, as far as I can tell.

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  3. #167
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    I personally agree w/you Dougdirt. We've had this debate before plenty of times on this board, so lets not rehash it here. I've been given evidence to show that college ptichers is the way to go, and I've also GIVEN OTHERS evidence that shows that its really not true as a whole and is completely overblown.
    You keep saying this, but I don't recall the thread off the top of my head. If you could post the link I'd like to go back and read the thread to consider your argument.

    Thanks in advance.

    GL

  4. #168
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Outshined_One
    Problem is, there aren't any pitchers like that in this year's draft. Weaver would have most likely gone #1 overall in his draft two years ago had it not been for Scott Boras (although Stephen Drew was also in that draft...and advised by Boras). No one in this draft has a comparable combination of size, stuff, ceiling, production in college, and likelihood of making an immediate impact in the majors, as far as I can tell.
    No, but there are a lot of pitching fish in the collegiate waters this year. That's where I'd be sending my fleet in the hopes of a big score.
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  5. #169
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    The enitre history of the draft where kids like Kershaw have NEVER made it.

    Besides that, the Reds have already put too many eggs in the HS pitching basket. It's time the organization went out and got a more mature arm in a draft filled with more mature arms to choose from.
    Kerry Wood.
    John Patterson.
    Josh Beckett.
    Adam Wainwright.
    Jeremy Bonderman.
    Zach Grienke (minus his illness)
    CC Sabathia
    Scott Kazmir
    Matt Cain
    Cole Hamels (despite injuries, still one of the better pitchers around)

    They all will disagree that guys like Kershaw have never made it. They made it, and those were just the ones off the top of my head who made it.

    While I will agree that the Reds probably need a HS arm if they are going for pitching in the first round this year, I dont think that its an absolute must of not drafting high school pitchers in the first round simply because "you put too many eggs in that basket".

  6. #170
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Kerry Wood.
    John Patterson.
    Josh Beckett.
    Adam Wainwright.
    Jeremy Bonderman.
    Zach Grienke (minus his illness)
    CC Sabathia
    Scott Kazmir
    Matt Cain
    Cole Hamels (despite injuries, still one of the better pitchers around)

    They all will disagree that guys like Kershaw have never made it. They made it, and those were just the ones off the top of my head who made it.

    While I will agree that the Reds probably need a HS arm if they are going for pitching in the first round this year, I dont think that its an absolute must of not drafting high school pitchers in the first round simply because "you put too many eggs in that basket".
    Don't even mention Wood, Kazmir and Beckett in the same sentence with Kershaw. They were heads and shoulders the best pitchers in the draft in their respective years. Kershaw's nowhere near that. Patterson never delivered a thing for the D-Backs, the team that raised him from a puppy and he's right now residing in the one-hit wonder file. So unless your goal is to spend a lot money on a guy who delivers for someone else, I don't see why he'd be something you'd want to emulate.

    Bonderman's in his fourth season and has never put together a good year (and seems to be in no danger of it in 2006). He's also not working for the team that drafted him. Greinke washed out last season and who knows if you'll ever see him again. So no thanks on drafting that.

    Hamels seems unlikely to keep his arm attached to his body long enough to ever make a difference.

    Sabathia, Cain and Wainwright were all picked in the 20s. If you've got a twentysomething pick, be my guest to take a HS arm if there's one you really love on the board. They're not really much more a crapshoot than anyone else at that point (though I don't particulary like Cain's chances).

    Yet if you've got the #8 pick and Kershaw's there and he isn't the class of the pitching field? Man, that just never works. I mean never. It's the Dead Zone.

    As for the Reds, the organization is still paper thin in upper level pitching. DanO added no stock in that regard. The best pitching prospects from his regime are working on cycles that still have four and five years remaining. Getting a more advanced arm who could make the majors inside a three-year cycle would partially address the gaping hole in the organization's farm system.

    Aside from that, diversifying your portfolio is usually a solid notion.
    Last edited by M2; 05-31-2006 at 11:10 PM.
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  7. #171
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Yet if you've got the #8 pick and Kershaw's there and he isn't the class of the pitching field? Man, that just never works. I mean never. It's the Dead Zone.
    M2, I love how you always twist things to prove your point. If you have the #8 pick, no pitcher is going to be the class of the pitching field, because Andrew Miller is going #1 or #2. After him, there is quite a drop off. Usually thats how it is. I think I just need to quit responding to anything you say. We usually are polar opposites on our opinions and I think it will just save the both of us time.

  8. #172
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Bonderman's in his fourth season and has never put together a good year (and seems to be in no danger of it in 2006).
    The only thing I disagree with is Bonderman. His ERA is quite high (4.61), but his peripherals suggest that he is pitching much better than his ERA indicates.

    HR/9: 0.64
    K/9: 7.42
    BB/9: 2.44
    K/BB: 3.05

    He's pitching a lot better than it looks. He's an improved pitcher from last season. This may indeed be the breakout year he's been looking for.

  9. #173
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    Re: MLB Draft

    I think I read a whole series of articles on Baseball Prospectus discussing the HS vs. College player question. The conclusion was the statistical advantage of a college player has decreased greatly. Some assume it is related to higher signing bonus that encourages HS star players to forgo college. The main advantage now is a pitcher from college might spend more time in the majors before free agency rather than they're intrinsically more talented or a safer bet. It's not a huge advantage but worth considering, in some cases, since the Reds aren't exactly the Yankees.

    Btw, if anyone is interested I could post the relevant BP articles.
    "Announcing your plans is a good way to hear god laugh" -Al Swearengen, Deadwood

  10. #174
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    M2, I love how you always twist things to prove your point. If you have the #8 pick, no pitcher is going to be the class of the pitching field, because Andrew Miller is going #1 or #2. After him, there is quite a drop off. Usually thats how it is. I think I just need to quit responding to anything you say. We usually are polar opposites on our opinions and I think it will just save the both of us time.
    While I agree that you usually can't get the class of the pitching field at #8, you could have gotten Kazmir or Jered Weaver there.

    Anyway, I'm not twisting anything. I'm being quite clear on this. So pay attention, because I'm about to say it again: If a prep arm isn't the clear class of the overall pitching field, then don't draft him in the top 15 because it almost never works out (1 for 26 in the 90s).

    As for the rest, I agree that you need to quit doing something. That's for sure.
    Last edited by M2; 05-31-2006 at 07:24 PM.
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  11. #175
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkin411
    I think I read a whole series of articles on Baseball Prospectus discussing the HS vs. College player question. The conclusion was the statistical advantage of a college player has decreased greatly. Some assume it is related to higher signing bonus that encourages HS star players to forgo college. The main advantage now is a pitcher from college might spend more time in the majors before free agency rather than they're intrinsically more talented or a safer bet. It's not a huge advantage but worth considering, in some cases, since the Reds aren't exactly the Yankees.

    Btw, if anyone is interested I could post the relevant BP articles.
    Those were mildly interesting. Though the problem I've found with all studies like that is they're too broad to provide any real insight. If you're spending $2.5M on a high pick, you don't need to know about general trends reflecting (largely) the odds of later rounds, you need to know how to best invest that big chunk of cash.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  12. #176
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    While I agree that you usually can't get the class of the pitching field at #8, you could have gotten Kazmir or Jered Weaver there.
    Scott Boras saw to that with Weaver. Otherwise, he would have been gone in the first three picks.
    Last edited by Outshined_One; 05-31-2006 at 07:24 PM.

  13. #177
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    While I agree that you usually can't get the class of the pitching field at #8, you could have gotten Kazmir or Jered Weaver there.

    Anyway, I"m not twisting anything. I'm being quite clear on this. So pay attention, because I'm about to say it again: If a prep arm isn't the clear class of the overall pitching field, then don't draft in the top 15 because it almost never works out (1 for 26 in the 90s).

    As for the rest, I agree that you need to quit doing something. That's for sure.
    So Kazmir,a high school pitcher, who now has proven to be a successful major league pitcher would have been ok to take in 2003 at #8, but another high school pitcher isnt because they are too much of a risk?

    See, this is why I cant talk to you about this.
    I am done with it.

  14. #178
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    talent-wise Kazmir was among the elite pitchers that year. Scott Boras scared people away.
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  15. #179
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    So Kazmir,a high school pitcher, who now has proven to be a successful major league pitcher would have been ok to take in 2003 at #8, but another high school pitcher isnt because they are too much of a risk?
    At the time though, there weren't many great college arms. Kazmir was the top pitcher available for that reason. He was still a risk because of injury/not developing, but he still had the best combination of upside and chance of making the majors. That's what put him ahead of the other pitchers. The other pitchers such as Gruler, Greinke were not considered as good of prospects at the time.

  16. #180
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    So Kazmir,a high school pitcher, who now has proven to be a successful major league pitcher would have been ok to take in 2003 at #8, but another high school pitcher isnt because they are too much of a risk?

    See, this is why I cant talk to you about this.
    I am done with it.
    It's not really a hard concept to grasp. Baseball professionals have a historical inability to identify the true best talents from the prep arm ranks. It's only when there's a prep arm who ranks as the consensus best pitcher in the draft (e.g. it's so obvious that nearly everyone recognizes it) that the risk becomes one worth taking. Kazmir was that kind of pitcher. Kershaw isn't.
    Last edited by M2; 05-31-2006 at 07:32 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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