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Thread: MLB Draft

  1. #181
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    I just want one of the top college pitchers available in the 1st. That will make me happy. A HS pitcher would make me sad.

    But the 2nd round looks pretty good also...there are a lot of big names trickling into the 40 or 50 range. Two I have seen are Kennedy and LaPorta. Landing either of those 2 in the 2nd would be great.
    i wouldnt want kennedy in the first 5 rounds. he is highly over rated. laporta and dallessio are 2 2nd/4th round guys i hope we have a shot at

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  3. #182
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    I personally agree w/you Dougdirt. We've had this debate before plenty of times on this board, so lets not rehash it here. I've been given evidence to show that college ptichers is the way to go, and I've also GIVEN OTHERS evidence that shows that its really not true as a whole and is completely overblown.

    That said, I too would be dissapointed if this year, we took a HS arm. The reason is because I think if we could get a college arm that is close to ready(i.e. a Jared Weaver type), then we could have a small window of 2007/2008/2009 that we could legitemittly contend for the playoffs with.

    And sorry for my attrocious spelling..
    yea, thats quality thinking right there, insert RYAN WAGNER

  4. #183
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Kerry Wood.
    John Patterson.
    Josh Beckett.
    Adam Wainwright.
    Jeremy Bonderman.
    Zach Grienke (minus his illness)
    CC Sabathia
    Scott Kazmir
    Matt Cain
    Cole Hamels (despite injuries, still one of the better pitchers around)

    They all will disagree that guys like Kershaw have never made it. They made it, and those were just the ones off the top of my head who made it.

    While I will agree that the Reds probably need a HS arm if they are going for pitching in the first round this year, I dont think that its an absolute must of not drafting high school pitchers in the first round simply because "you put too many eggs in that basket".
    I am for the college pitcher this year b/c they are, most likely, closer to the majors than a high school pitcher. I think the Reds have the hitting in place and by the time a few HS pitchers get to the majors, Dunn and Co. will be headed for NY or another big market. I don't think it is college ranks at all costs, but I think there are enough college pitchers to take one in the 1st and possibly the 2nd.

  5. #184
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    It's not really a hard concept to grasp. Baseball professionals have a historical inability to identify the true best talents from the prep arm ranks. It's only when there's a prep arm who ranks as the consensus best pitcher in the draft (e.g. it's so obvious that nearly everyone recognizes it) that the risk becomes one worth taking. Kazmir was that kind of pitcher. Kershaw isn't.
    See, I think that's a bit of a misnomer. Clearly there are a number of guys drafted out of high school who pitch in the majors today; if there weren't, clearly people would stop drafting those guys. In a lot of cases, guys in high school who otherwise would be high round picks drop because of signability issues. If a guy has a strong commitment to a certain college, he will be much harder to sign. Even if the guy is shooting up the boards and could be the top HS pitcher taken, he could turn teams down. Boras HS clients are notorious for this; he wants his guys to go through college.

    Also, it's not just high school pitchers who scouts have trouble identifying as possible top talents. How about high school hitters? Junior college pitchers? College hitters? In fact, it seems more like that unless a guy is a sure thing, there's a likelihood that the guy won't be worth taking, as it were. And even in a number of cases, those sure things could still bust. Injuries happen to everyone in baseball, no matter how talented, in shape, and mechanically sound they may be. Look at how many busts there have been in every draft, it's almost as if scouts have a historical inability to identify the true best talents in any draft, period!

    Finally, Kazmir was not a Boras client. Moorad represented him in that draft, according to BA. One of the reasons why he dropped to the Mutts was because rumors were flying about his contract demands.

  6. #185
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Outshined_One
    See, I think that's a bit of a misnomer. Clearly there are a number of guys drafted out of high school who pitch in the majors today; if there weren't, clearly people would stop drafting those guys.
    Well sure. Though I'm not saying don't draft HS arms. All I'm saying is MLB scouting departments have yet to figure out to pick them with the higher degrees of accuracy you see with the best college arms, HS players and college players.

    It's a weird blind spot. You'd expect some sort random luck to hit, but it almost never does. With the guys I'm talking about (top 15 picks, not the best overall pitcher on the board) you're talking about Kent Mercker, Scott Garrelts, Steve Trout and the Blue Jays model of Chris Carpenter as the best overall returns on prep arms for the teams that picked them (that's over the last 30 drafts).

    That just screams electrified third rail to me.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  7. #186
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    Re: MLB Draft

    laporta and dallessio are 2 2nd/4th round guys i hope we have a shot at
    Has Laporta dropped that far? It'd be awesome to get the most power potential in the draft with our second round pick. If somebody takes him though, I'd look for Max Sapp or possibly Kasey Kiker in the second.

    Is it a possibility that Dallas Buck could be available in the second round? He hasn't had a great year with control, but he's supposed to have a fastball around 90MPH and a nasty slider.

  8. #187
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by NewEraReds
    yea, thats quality thinking right there, insert RYAN WAGNER
    Oh please, save the drama. Ryan Wagner is a relief pitcher.

    And Jared Weaver is in the bigs. I dont think Marrow/Lincecum/Lincoln are that far off personally. A year or two at most.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

  9. #188
    The Latin Heartthrob Javy Pornstache's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude
    Has Laporta dropped that far? It'd be awesome to get the most power potential in the draft with our second round pick. If somebody takes him though, I'd look for Max Sapp or possibly Kasey Kiker in the second.

    Is it a possibility that Dallas Buck could be available in the second round? He hasn't had a great year with control, but he's supposed to have a fastball around 90MPH and a nasty slider.
    I am not sure about LaPorta, I have seen a few people suggesting he's a second rounder now but he could still very well go in the first or at least supplemental round between first and second.

    Buck is a guy I've been paying attention to myself as a guy who's fallen off into a second round guy now along with conference mate Ian Kennedy. From most accounts, he will be available in the second, and I don't think it would hurt to take him in the second even if we have a college pitcher in the first as I am definitely hoping for (Morrow or Bard are my preferences; I like Lincoln a lot also but doubt he'll be there at 8). Postion players are certainly lacking but to get two potentially good college arms in the first couple rounds to help stock upper-level minors in a short time would seem more important in the interim. The control problems Buck has suffered some of the year are definitely attention-grabbing, but from what I've read of scouts, at least at last check, it isn't anything too alarming and is still considered a second round talent.

  10. #189
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Buck's had the same problems as Kennedy in that he's lost his velocity this season, iirc.

  11. #190
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    Re: MLB Draft

    MLB.com has updated their mock draft. I like this pick.

    8. Cincinnati Reds: Tim Lincecum, University of Washington

    It'll be a decision between a high school bat (New Jersey's Bill Rowell) and a college arm. Rowell was being brought in for a private workout, and if he wowed the Reds brass, they could still go with the future third baseman. Cincy's interest in Lincecum is relatively new news to me, but he is a guy who, if he goes into the 'pen, could be up by August. He's got electric stuff and a rubber arm, but the questions about his size (5-foot-10) and durability remain -- the reason he will likely slip down this far after being talked about in the top spot.
    Last week's projection: Bill Rowell

    http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/a...ives&fext=.jsp
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  12. #191
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Is Lincecum a closer candidate?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  13. #192
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck
    Is Lincecum a closer candidate?
    I like him more as a starter. I've heard him compared to Roy Oswalt.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  14. #193
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    Re: MLB Draft

    I'm not a fan of drafting relief pitchers of any ilk in the first round. If you don't project them to be a reasonably ceilinged starter, then just pick someone else. That was what I thought about Wagner when he was picked. Hopefully they'll give Lincecum a chance to start, but he sounds to be of similar stature as Medlock, so if they take him they'll likely make him a reliever at some point, regardless of how he performs starting.
    4009



  15. #194
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    Re: MLB Draft

    I agree that if the Reds will be taking a pitcher their intention had better be to make that pitcher a starter. IMO, that was the major sin with Wagner. He had electric stuff and JimBo and Co. got it in their heads they could rush that to the majors in the pen at a time when a primo closer wasn't going to make much of a difference for the club.

    Meanwhile, had the plan for Wagner been to do the more involved work of training him to be a starter (and the crucial question for the scouts should have been CAN he be an effective starter?), then he might be on the doorstep of the majors right now. He doesn't turn 24 until July. Imagine having a big hoss starter to add to Harang and Arroyo in the near future. Pretty tasty scenario, IMO.

    As for the Linecum speculation, I'd be amazed if he's there for the Reds and thrilled if the club takes him. In general BA has been all over where players are falling in the draft in recent years and they still seem to think he's going inside the top 5.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #195
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    Re: MLB Draft

    there is just 2 things i dont want to see, and they go hand in hand kind of. that is drafting....

    ....a player you plan to move to the pen
    ....a player just cause he is most ready


    if you turn a starter into a closer/reliever later on okay, but dont draft a guy at 8 overall planning to do this. and please, please dont draft on most ready. that will having you losing now and in the future. you need to draft the best players possible. i dont want a guy who is ready now, i want the best players. now if best and most ready are one in the same, then that is GREAT. i dont care about hs, college, pitcher, positional, i just want who we feel is the best


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