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Thread: MLB Draft

  1. #196
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre
    I'm not a fan of drafting relief pitchers of any ilk in the first round. If you don't project them to be a reasonably ceilinged starter, then just pick someone else. That was what I thought about Wagner when he was picked. Hopefully they'll give Lincecum a chance to start, but he sounds to be of similar stature as Medlock, so if they take him they'll likely make him a reliever at some point, regardless of how he performs starting.
    i just cant see how you can draft that way in the top 10. with all the talent that is out there, how can you be drafting a guy who you plan to use 80-100 innings a year at most

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  3. #197
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I agree that if the Reds will be taking a pitcher their intention had better be to make that pitcher a starter. IMO, that was the major sin with Wagner. He had electric stuff and JimBo and Co. got it in their heads they could rush that to the majors in the pen at a time when a primo closer wasn't going to make much of a difference for the club.

    Meanwhile, had the plan for Wagner been to do the more involved work of training him to be a starter (and the crucial question for the scouts should have been CAN he be an effective starter?), then he might be on the doorstep of the majors right now. He doesn't turn 24 until July. Imagine having a big hoss starter to add to Harang and Arroyo in the near future. Pretty tasty scenario, IMO.

    As for the Linecum speculation, I'd be amazed if he's there for the Reds and thrilled if the club takes him. In general BA has been all over where players are falling in the draft in recent years and they still seem to think he's going inside the top 5.
    which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neither

  4. #198
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    Oh please, save the drama. Ryan Wagner is a relief pitcher.

    And Jared Weaver is in the bigs. I dont think Marrow/Lincecum/Lincoln are that far off personally. A year or two at most.
    im not questioning picking those guys, if they are the BEST player. im questioning your logic and others of taking the most ready. who cares if the guy is most ready if he isnt the best. if they are most ready and the best, then great.

  5. #199
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude
    Has Laporta dropped that far? It'd be awesome to get the most power potential in the draft with our second round pick. If somebody takes him though, I'd look for Max Sapp or possibly Kasey Kiker in the second.

    Is it a possibility that Dallas Buck could be available in the second round? He hasn't had a great year with control, but he's supposed to have a fastball around 90MPH and a nasty slider.
    he may still go in the first do to what he did before and if scouts feel he will regain it. i personally think he got out of whack after the injury he had and just didnt come back well. the entire team had a horrible year.

  6. #200
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by NewEraReds
    which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neither
    Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #201
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well.
    never, come on dude, quit making yourself look like an

    seriously, man what the heck did kershaw have to do with my post anyway. just cause you like to bash hs pitchers doesnt mean you have to hijack every post

  8. #202
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well.
    M2 I have shown you HS pitchers that have come along and been just fine. Just because you hate the idea of a HS pitcher doesnt mean you have to dog it every time it is brought up.

  9. #203
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by NewEraReds
    which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neither
    Don't use Wagner as an example, b/c Howington and Gruler damaged the Reds system more than Wagner did. At least Wagner reached the majors and had success ,though very limited success, in the bigs and still has the potential to help. Gruler and Ty are either gone (TH) or years, if ever, away (CG).

  10. #204
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Supposedly the Reds are thinking about Drabek in the 1st round...

  11. #205
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Where did you read/hear that at edabbs44?

  12. #206
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Where did you read/hear that at edabbs44?
    Yesterday's chat on BA with Callis...they said they'll have an article coming out soon that might shed some light on the character issue rumors going around. They also said they can't see the Reds going over slot $ to pick/sign Hochevar. Premium content info.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...es/261533.html
    Last edited by edabbs44; 06-01-2006 at 02:03 PM.

  13. #207
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    M2 I have shown you HS pitchers that have come along and been just fine. Just because you hate the idea of a HS pitcher doesnt mean you have to dog it every time it is brought up.
    No, you haven't. You haven't shown me a single top 15 HS arm selection who wasn't the best overall pitcher in the draft who's been able to deliver big for the team that drafted him.

    The reason why is simple. That pitcher doesn't exist (at least not in the past 35 years). I've never once said HS arms never pan out or anything like it. What I have said is the industry has been uniformly horrible at identifying the ones who will. Unless you've got a talent that no one in all of modern professional baseball scouting has ever demonstrated then I'm going to consider Kershaw just another flavor-of-the-day HS arm not worth the millions he'd be due to get on a #8 pick.

    Will some HS arm from this draft go on to have a really good career as a starter? Probably. Yet neither you, nor I, nor Baseball America, nor any one person in any major league scouting department has a real good guess as to who it will be. The top drafted HS arm usually turns out to be a J.M. Gold-level bust. Kershaw probably won't even be considered the top prep arm from this year's prep ranks by the end of August. He certainly wasn't considered anything close to it three months ago. Kids like him come and go.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #208
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    Re: MLB Draft

    M2, I refuse to believe that simply because someone was drafted at #15 instead of #16 has anything whatsoever to do with the chances that they will succeed as a pitcher. It makes absolutely no sense and is simply a thing of dumb luck that it has worked out that way.
    I mean of all the #1 overall picks, more often than not, they fail to live up to it. I mean really, you have Griffey, Arod, Chipper Jones and who? Darryl Strawberry . Thats it. So what 4 out of 40? The entire draft is a crapshoot. No one is a sure thing.

  15. #209
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    M2, I refuse to believe that simply because someone was drafted at #15 instead of #16 has anything whatsoever to do with the chances that they will succeed as a pitcher. It makes absolutely no sense and is simply a thing of dumb luck that it has worked out that way.
    I mean of all the #1 overall picks, more often than not, they fail to live up to it. I mean really, you have Griffey, Arod, Chipper Jones and who? Darryl Strawberry . Thats it. So what 4 out of 40? The entire draft is a crapshoot. No one is a sure thing.
    Prices start to drop in the latter of the draft and I've said before, when they do and your overall odds on landing something from the college arm ranks falls down to where it is in the HS arm ranks, then feel free to draft pitcher.

    You've got this all backwards. Where the guy is selected has nothing to do with whether he'll make it. The problem with HS arms, and this is 35 years and running, is that no one reallly knows which ones to pick up high. Unless you're convinced you're smarter than everybody else who's been screwing it up for the last 35 years, then I'd say stay away from HS arms on high first round picks. Sheer random luck would suggest someday somebody's got to get it right, but I wouldn't want to spend $2.5M in the hopes that sheer random luck smiles upon me.

    Meanwhile, you've got a about a 32% chance of having a college arm turn out if he goes in the top 15 picks and it's probably higher than that if you weed out finesse/pitchability guys. So, while the draft may be full of risk, some risks have proven clearly better than others.
    Last edited by M2; 06-01-2006 at 02:44 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #210
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    Re: MLB Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by NewEraReds
    im not questioning picking those guys, if they are the BEST player. im questioning your logic and others of taking the most ready. who cares if the guy is most ready if he isnt the best. if they are most ready and the best, then great.
    Player A has a 40% chance of being a #3 starter within 3 years.
    Player B has a 20% chance of being a #1 starter within 5 years.

    Who do you take?

    I take A every single time. Small market teams can only afford to have a few really good players on their team for any length of time. The key to being able to afford the really good players is to be able to fill in around them with inexpensive talent from the minors on a regular basis. The Braves have won their division for umpteen years running based on a higher priced version of this system.


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