i just cant see how you can draft that way in the top 10. with all the talent that is out there, how can you be drafting a guy who you plan to use 80-100 innings a year at mostOriginally Posted by ochre
i just cant see how you can draft that way in the top 10. with all the talent that is out there, how can you be drafting a guy who you plan to use 80-100 innings a year at mostOriginally Posted by ochre
which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neitherOriginally Posted by M2
im not questioning picking those guys, if they are the BEST player. im questioning your logic and others of taking the most ready. who cares if the guy is most ready if he isnt the best. if they are most ready and the best, then great.Originally Posted by cincyinco
he may still go in the first do to what he did before and if scouts feel he will regain it. i personally think he got out of whack after the injury he had and just didnt come back well. the entire team had a horrible year.Originally Posted by Superdude
Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well.Originally Posted by NewEraReds
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
never, come on dude, quit making yourself look like anOriginally Posted by M2
seriously, man what the heck did kershaw have to do with my post anyway. just cause you like to bash hs pitchers doesnt mean you have to hijack every post
M2 I have shown you HS pitchers that have come along and been just fine. Just because you hate the idea of a HS pitcher doesnt mean you have to dog it every time it is brought up.Originally Posted by M2
Don't use Wagner as an example, b/c Howington and Gruler damaged the Reds system more than Wagner did. At least Wagner reached the majors and had success ,though very limited success, in the bigs and still has the potential to help. Gruler and Ty are either gone (TH) or years, if ever, away (CG).Originally Posted by NewEraReds
Supposedly the Reds are thinking about Drabek in the 1st round...
Where did you read/hear that at edabbs44?
Yesterday's chat on BA with Callis...they said they'll have an article coming out soon that might shed some light on the character issue rumors going around. They also said they can't see the Reds going over slot $ to pick/sign Hochevar. Premium content info.Originally Posted by dougdirt
http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...es/261533.html
Last edited by edabbs44; 06-01-2006 at 02:03 PM.
No, you haven't. You haven't shown me a single top 15 HS arm selection who wasn't the best overall pitcher in the draft who's been able to deliver big for the team that drafted him.Originally Posted by dougdirt
The reason why is simple. That pitcher doesn't exist (at least not in the past 35 years). I've never once said HS arms never pan out or anything like it. What I have said is the industry has been uniformly horrible at identifying the ones who will. Unless you've got a talent that no one in all of modern professional baseball scouting has ever demonstrated then I'm going to consider Kershaw just another flavor-of-the-day HS arm not worth the millions he'd be due to get on a #8 pick.
Will some HS arm from this draft go on to have a really good career as a starter? Probably. Yet neither you, nor I, nor Baseball America, nor any one person in any major league scouting department has a real good guess as to who it will be. The top drafted HS arm usually turns out to be a J.M. Gold-level bust. Kershaw probably won't even be considered the top prep arm from this year's prep ranks by the end of August. He certainly wasn't considered anything close to it three months ago. Kids like him come and go.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
M2, I refuse to believe that simply because someone was drafted at #15 instead of #16 has anything whatsoever to do with the chances that they will succeed as a pitcher. It makes absolutely no sense and is simply a thing of dumb luck that it has worked out that way.
I mean of all the #1 overall picks, more often than not, they fail to live up to it. I mean really, you have Griffey, Arod, Chipper Jones and who? Darryl Strawberry . Thats it. So what 4 out of 40? The entire draft is a crapshoot. No one is a sure thing.
Prices start to drop in the latter of the draft and I've said before, when they do and your overall odds on landing something from the college arm ranks falls down to where it is in the HS arm ranks, then feel free to draft pitcher.Originally Posted by dougdirt
You've got this all backwards. Where the guy is selected has nothing to do with whether he'll make it. The problem with HS arms, and this is 35 years and running, is that no one reallly knows which ones to pick up high. Unless you're convinced you're smarter than everybody else who's been screwing it up for the last 35 years, then I'd say stay away from HS arms on high first round picks. Sheer random luck would suggest someday somebody's got to get it right, but I wouldn't want to spend $2.5M in the hopes that sheer random luck smiles upon me.
Meanwhile, you've got a about a 32% chance of having a college arm turn out if he goes in the top 15 picks and it's probably higher than that if you weed out finesse/pitchability guys. So, while the draft may be full of risk, some risks have proven clearly better than others.
Last edited by M2; 06-01-2006 at 02:44 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Player A has a 40% chance of being a #3 starter within 3 years.Originally Posted by NewEraReds
Player B has a 20% chance of being a #1 starter within 5 years.
Who do you take?
I take A every single time. Small market teams can only afford to have a few really good players on their team for any length of time. The key to being able to afford the really good players is to be able to fill in around them with inexpensive talent from the minors on a regular basis. The Braves have won their division for umpteen years running based on a higher priced version of this system.
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