MLB Draft

[cincyinco]

I think Hochevar goes to the Mariners. Rumors are also out there that the Royals are looking at Luke.

Its just a hunch, but I have a feeling Lincecum could fall to us. Its a gut feeling. KC will not pick Lincecum. The Rockies will pick Longoria. The M's may take Lincecum, but reportedly are enamored with Hochevar. After that I think some of the teams before us prefer guys like Lincoln or Marrow over Lincecum. The one kink in my theory may be the Dodgers, but I'm banking on them picking a prep star. Logan White loves the highschool kids.

[dougdirt]

I have seen several places that have either the Dodgers or Tigers taking Kershaw. He will go to one of them. I think the Tigers will end up taking him. They have the pitching that they wont have to rush him and can give him the time he needs to develop.

[M2]

Logan White loves the highschool kids.

He'd best be careful that he doesn't get caught in a Dateline NBC sting.

[NewEraReds]

Player A has a 40% chance of being a #3 starter within 3 years.
Player B has a 20% chance of being a #1 starter within 5 years.

Who do you take?

I take A every single time. Small market teams can only afford to have a few really good players on their team for any length of time. The key to being able to afford the really good players is to be able to fill in around them with inexpensive talent from the minors on a regular basis. The Braves have won their division for umpteen years running based on a higher priced version of this system.

B every time, by your theory, after 5 drafts, you will have either

a - 2 number 3 starters
b - 1 number 1 starter

ill take 1 no.1 over 2 no. 3s everytime. you can get a no. 3 through trade or free agency. reds cant get a no. 1 through those 2 outlets

[cincyinco]

He'd best be careful that he doesn't get caught in a Dateline NBC sting.

haha.. good one

Here's how I see round 1 going until our pick

Royals - Miller
Rockies - Longoria
Devil Rays - Lincoln
Pirates - Reynolds
Mariners - Hochevar
Tigers - Stubbs
Dodgers - Kershaw
Reds - LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or Marrow!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading the Reds haven't expressed much interest in Lincecum, but he'd be hard to ignore I think. Krivs wants clean delivery pitcher, and Lincecum is not that, he's also short and righthanded. A little unconventional. But this guy reminds me of Oswalt. I'd take him.

That said, I dont think you can go wrong with Marrow either. We should be able to land a very good college pitcher with our pick.

[M2]

haha.. good one

Here's how I see round 1 going until our pick

Royals - Miller
Rockies - Longoria
Devil Rays - Lincoln
Pirates - Reynolds
Mariners - Hochevar
Tigers - Stubbs
Dodgers - Kershaw
Reds - LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or Marrow!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading the Reds haven't expressed much interest in Lincecum, but he'd be hard to ignore I think. Krivs wants clean delivery pitcher, and Lincecum is not that, he's also short and righthanded. A little unconventional. But this guy reminds me of Oswalt. I'd take him.

That said, I dont think you can go wrong with Marrow either. We should be able to land a very good college pitcher with our pick.

I couldn't be happier than if that's how it played out.

[cincyinco]

I couldn't be happier than if that's how it played out.

Man, I'm getting stoked for draft day.. haha. I love the draft.

I defenitely think either Marrow or Lincecum will be there. I will be super happy with either one, but Lincecum reminds me of Oswalt for some reason.. I hope Krivsky would consider taking a chance on him, even if he is a short right hander.

He looks durable to me.. and led the NCAA in K's eh? He might not have Marrows heat, but its not like he's sitting at 89 like Scherzer either. Reports say he gained a notch on an already plus fastball, and adding muscle to his frame has enabled him to reach 98mph. Thats plenty fast. Lincecum also sports one of the best curves in the country. Also sports a slider and change up.

[edabbs44]

We should get a fresh draft thread going next week...this one has reached 11 pages already.

[jmcclain19]

I could see the draft panning out like that, although I highly doubt the Tigers would let Kershaw slip by. That guy has Detroit Pitching MO written all over him.

And if the Dodgers take another HS bat - a Rowell for example, that would fit into what scares me the most, the Reds picking with Drew Stubbs available. I'm thinking this guy is BJ Syzmanski Part II and the Reds would be all over that with arms like Linecum, Morrow and Bard still available.

I'm hoping the teams picking 1 thru 7 save the Reds scouting dept from themselves and take Stubbs & Kershaw off the table before it gets to pick No. 8

[cincyinco]

If Marrow is there, I dont think Krivsky will hesitate to take him - unless Lincecum is there. But Marrow seems to be just what Krivsky ordered.

1) a pitcher
2) a pitcher with a clean delivery
3) a pitcher with a classic pitcher's frame

There are still questions regarding marrow, but I like Krivsky's ability to judge talent. Marrow kind of reminds me of Verlander before heading into the draft. Questions surrounding their command of the zone. Verlander turned out to be great. Marrow may turn out to be along the same lines.

[dougdirt]

Drew Stubbs is the last guy I want with our pick....well at least for who will go between 1-15

[cincyinco]

Drew Stubbs is the last guy I want with our pick....well at least for who will go between 1-15

Agreed..

To many questions about his bat.

Though his other tools are impressive. With Krivsky liking defense, he may factor that into his pick. But I just can't see, with the glaring need for pitching and this draft being so heavy with college pitching, Krivsky taking a positional player.

I think I'll be dissapointed if that were to happen. I believe in drafting best talent and not for need for sure.. but beyond Miller and Longoria, I think everyone has their question marks. The concensus best talent can be heavily debated.

[dougdirt]

Well, if we believe what Krivsky has said, he isnt going to have much to say at all on the draft picks, he said he is leaving that up to his scouts. I just pray they were the same scouts who saw the holes in his swing that everyone is saying he has.

[Red Heeler]

B every time, by your theory, after 5 drafts, you will have either

a - 2 number 3 starters
b - 1 number 1 starter

ill take 1 no.1 over 2 no. 3s everytime. you can get a no. 3 through trade or free agency. reds cant get a no. 1 through those 2 outlets

Best case scenario you have a #1 after 5 drafts. Worst case, you have a guy who will be a #1 in another 4 years.

And why can't the Reds get a #1 through trade or free agency? Other teams manage to do it all the time. It is simply a matter of arranging the budget accordingly and having a steady enough supply of inexpensive replacements to fill out the roster.

[Javy Pornstache]

haha.. good one

Here's how I see round 1 going until our pick

Royals - Miller
Rockies - Longoria
Devil Rays - Lincoln
Pirates - Reynolds
Mariners - Hochevar
Tigers - Stubbs
Dodgers - Kershaw
Reds - LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or Marrow!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading the Reds haven't expressed much interest in Lincecum, but he'd be hard to ignore I think. Krivs wants clean delivery pitcher, and Lincecum is not that, he's also short and righthanded. A little unconventional. But this guy reminds me of Oswalt. I'd take him.

That said, I dont think you can go wrong with Marrow either. We should be able to land a very good college pitcher with our pick.

That would be fantastic if that's how it turned out, I am really hoping. However, I think Greg Reynolds' hype has faded a little, and he might not be selected till the teens now... I don't think Pittsburgh takes him at #4 over Morrow at this point. But even if so, Lincecum and Bard should be there at 8 and I would love the Reds to get either. Morrow is the one I like the most, but I'd be happy with Lincecum or Bard, that's for sure. The rest of it looks quite plausible, and could still happen the way cincyinco listed; just going by what I recently have gathered on Reynolds.