MLB Draft

[Betterread]

[QUOTE=cincyinco]Agreed..

To many questions about his bat.
QUOTE]

Questions about his bat?- in 58 games his ObP+SLP was 1.050+
He started every game and while he Struck out 53 times in 58 games, he walked 40 times. Sounds a lot like a budding Adam Dunn to me. If he drops to the Reds, I really hope they select him.

[edabbs44]

Question: After Moneyball hit the stands, everybody was infatuated with drafting college pitchers and realizing the risk of drafting HS pitchers. I believe there was also a quote in the book saying that if a pitcher throws 95 when he is 18 he will throw 85 when he is 21.

Now, there is a pitcher you may have heard of before, Danny Almonte, in the draft. Tops out in the mid 80s but supposedly knows how to pitch. He is supposed to go late in the draft. He is already committed to a JC if he doesn't get enough $. Would it make sense to take someone like him in a little earlier than expected, if available? If most hard throwing HS pitchers (as the saying goes) lose their velocity as they get older, wouldn't Almonte have a shot to be the reverse of that? And wouldn't it be worth taking a shot and giving him a year in JUCO as a draft and follow?

It reminds me of a guy you all may have heard of, CJ Nitkowski. I played with him in HS and he was a great pitcher then. Threw mid 80s but knew how to pitch. All of a sudden, he is in the mid 90s in college and goes top 10 overall to Cincy.

I only used Almonte as an example b/c I read an article about him in the paper this week and am not advocating over-drafting him. But I think it is a valid thought process. Looking at BA's pre-season top 25 college prospects this year, there are 16 pitchers. Here are where they were drafted last time they were draft eligible:

1) Miller (3)
3) Scherzer (43)
4) Bard (20)
5) Kennedy (14)
9) Morrow (40)
10) Buck (19)
11) McCulloch (18)
12) Chamberlain (ND)
13) Lincoln (28)
14) Melancon (30)
15) Hughes (16)
16) Reynolds (41)
18) Erickson (28)
22) Perez (ND)
23) Masterson (ND)
24) Daley (ND)

Now, admittedly, some of these guys (like Bard) slipped in the draft b/c of different reasons and some probably wouldn't sign after they were drafted after the 25th round anyway. But some of these guys (like Scherzer and Daley, to name 2) were in the 80s in HS and were drafted late or not at all. And since most late round draftees have little chance of panning out (excluding Todd Coffey and SuperDeno), wouldn't pitchers like this be worth a shot?

I guess my thought is that teams should be able to find a way to project who will gain velocity as they get older. You always hear scouts saying "So and so has gap power now, he will develop into a 30 HR hitter as he gets older." Where is the scout who says "So and so hits 88 on the gun, but will develop into a mid 90s pitcher in a few years"? What could the factors be? Height? Arm speed? Who knows...but if there are pitchers out there who want to get to the pros no matter where they are drafted, can't someone find them before they get to college and explode on the scene?

[dougdirt]

Questions about his bat?- in 58 games his ObP+SLP was 1.050+
He started every game and while he Struck out 53 times in 58 games, he walked 40 times. Sounds a lot like a budding Adam Dunn to me. If he drops to the Reds, I really hope they select him.

Lots of scouts question if Stubbs will ever hit at a major league level. BJ Szymanski struck out just 28 times his junior year....he is being torn apart in single A right now... Stubbs might hit college pitchers, but the holes in his swing will come to the front when he faces professional pitchers.

[IslandRed]

Yep. Context matters. A 1.050 OPS swinging an aluminum bat against college pitching is a very good, but not great, mark. Nearly every team I spot-checked, all major-conference schools, had a guy above 1.000.

[NewEraReds]

Watching Joba right now on cstv. painting the outside corner at the knees with fastballs and throwing a nasty curve. 2 ks in the first. only problem ive seen is he hasnt thrown 1 pitch inside the outside corner, let alone inside or change eye level. but its just been 1 inning. wish they had a gun going so i could see the velocity

[NewEraReds]

i think they figured he wasnt gonna come in. back to back hr's to lead off the 2nd. one hanging breaking ball at the belt another fastball at the belt right over the plate

[OnBaseMachine]

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Here are some players to watch as likely top 10 picks in the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, which gets underway June 6.

1) ANDREW MILLER, LHP, NORTH CAROLINA

Expected to be the first Tar Heel to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick since B.J. Surhoff in 1985...He has been favored to be the first pick for the '06 draft since stepping on UNC's campus...2006 ACC Pitcher of the Year and earned first-team All-ACC honors...North Carolina's all-time strikeout leader with 290 and is fourth with 25 victories...This season he has won 11 of his 13 starts with four shutouts...Miller allowed just four extra-base hits all year (only one home run) and was 5-1 with a 1.27 ERA in six starts against nationally-ranked opponents...Against the ACC he was 8-1 with a 1.94 ERA...He works comfortably in the 93-95 range, and tops out around 99 mph...Also has a devastating slider that gives him two legitimate strikeout pitches...At times is a bit wild, but his command has improved each season...Has drawn many comparisons to Randy Johnson.

2) TIM LINCECUM, RHP, WASHINGTON

This season Lincecum broke the Huskies' single-season wins record and is the all-time strikeouts leader at Washington...As a freshman in 2004 he became the first player ever to be names Pac-10 Freshman of the Year and Pitcher of the Year. Was the first Washington player to win either award...Control has been an issue, as Lincecum uncorked 11 wild pitches and hit 10 batters...Despite his small size, Lincecum goes after hitters and tries to strike them out instead of relying on finesse...Has been compared to Roy Oswalt, but his future may lie in the bullpen as a closer.

3) BRAD LINCOLN, RHP, HOUSTON

Was an All-Star pitcher at the Cap Cod League last summer for the Bourne Braves, posting a 1.32 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 54 innings...Has carried that success from Cape Cod over into his junior season at Houston. He is 11-1 with a 1.67 ERA in 15 starts with the Cougars this year...Has 141 strikeouts and just 26 walks over 113 innings this season...Lincoln frequently throws his fastball in the 93-mph range, but has been clocked in the high-90s...Also throws an excellent curve ball and is developing a changeup...Lincoln is also used as a first baseman/designated hitter for Houston and is hitting .288 with 11 home runs and a team-high 50 RBI this season...Was selected out of high school by the Texas Rangers in the 28th round of the 2003 draft.

4) EVAN LONGORIA, 3B/2B, LONG BEACH STATE

Was named the Most Valuable Player last summer at the prestigious Cape Cod Baseball League and is expected to be the first position player selected in this year's draft...Played for Chatham in the CCBL and led the league with eight homers, 35 RBI and a .500 slugging percentage...Was listed as the third- best major league prospect to play in Cape Cod last year, falling in behind pitchers Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard...Has had an excellent junior season at Long Beach State so far, hitting .364 with nine home runs and 39 RBI...Longoria's biggest asset is his ability to hit with power to all field...Is not related to actress Eva Longoria.

5) GREG REYNOLDS, RHP, STANFORD

No player has helped himself more in recent weeks than Reynolds, who outpitched two likely top 10 selections in California's Brendan Morrow and Washington's Tim Lincecum in back-to-back May starts. A late first-round possibility heading into this season, the towering righty now could go as high as the No. 4 overall pick to Pittsburgh.

With very good command of three pitches -- a fastball that can reach the mid-90's plus a curve and change, Reynolds is considered one of the safest picks in this year's class. He is also intelligent, has good mound presence, and a solid athlete who was recruited to play quarterback by a number of Division I schools.

Reynolds was considered a possible second-round selection as a high-schooler in 2003, but his strong commitment to Stanford kept him available until the Phillies took a flyer near the end of the draft.

6) LUKE HOCHEVAR, RHP, FORT WORTH (Independent)

Right-hander Luke Hochevar had a solid 2005 campaign with the University of Tennessee and helped the Vols to the College World Series. Hochevar was slated to be the No. 1 overall pick by Arizona, but fell to the Dodgers at No. 40. His agent, Scott Boras, talked him out of his original deal signed with LA and the prospect landed with the Fort Worth Cats of the independent American Association. The Fowler, CO native, who was rated the best college pitcher in last year's draft, had his fastball clocked around 90-97 mph, while hurling a nice off-speed slider.

7) CLAYTON KERSHAW, LHP, HIGHLAND PARK HIGH SCHOOL (DALLAS, TEXAS)

Top prep player on the board...Throws consistently in the low 90s, but can get to the mid-90s when he has to...Throws the best curveball of all the Texas prep prospects...Needs to work on control...Oblique strain hurt him late in the season. However he was 10-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 104 strikeouts before the injury. After the injury tossed a truly perfect game - 15 batters, 15 strikeouts...Has committed to play for Texas A&M, but will likely land in the first round of draft.

8) DREW STUBBS, OF, TEXAS

Helped Texas win the 2005 College World Series Championship by hitting .311 with 11 homers and 46 RBI...Was also a member of the USA National Team that earned a gold medal at the 2004 FISU World University Championships in Taipei, Taiwan...Is a five-tool player and is widely considered to be the best athlete in college baseball...Is enjoying an excellent junior season at Texas with a .337 batting average, 11 home runs, 48 RBI and 21 stolen bases...Stubbs was selected out of high school by the Houston Astros in the 2003 draft.

9) BRANDON MORROW, RHP, CALIFORNIA

With one start remaining Morrow was 7-3 as a starter with a 1.74 ERA for Cal this past season...Dominated the Cape Cod League last summer, as his fastball regularly approached the high-90s...Pitched to a 6.07 ERA as a freshman and a 9.36 ERA as a sophomore...Complements his fastball with a wicked split- fingered fastball which may be the single best trick-pitch of anyone available for the 2006 draft...The fastball-split finger combo could make him a potentially dominant closer one day...Was drafted in the 40th round by the Anaheim Angles in the 2003 Major League Amateur Draft...Controls his Type 1 diabetes with an insulin pump.

10) DANIEL BARD, RHP, NORTH CAROLINA

Bard played an instrumental role in North Carolina's Coastal Division title and will be an even bigger piece of the puzzle in the upcoming ACC Tournament...In his last start on May 20 against Boston College, Bard hurled seven innings of one-run ball for the win, while allowing five hits with two walks and four K's...Bard, who played in the shadows of UNC ace Andrew Miller, compiled a 7-3 record this season with a 3.53 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) and 79 innings...He also notched a pair of complete games...A member of team USA, Bard will most likely be a No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher in the majors...He does not have a Roger Clemens-type fastball, but the mechanics to go the distance and fool batters with junk.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/scorec...ticleID=103289

[jmcclain19]

I am now officially ready for the Draft.

I took the day off work (All I do on draft day is surf the net anyway, I might as well be honest about it) and got it approved yesterday. Got my Baseball America Draft Preview in the mail this afternoon, I picked up some Frozen Pizzas for Tuesday at the store - Bring on Draft day.

[Gallen5862]

I will be at home for draft day as well trying to listen to it on the internet and chatting in the draft thread.

[dougdirt]

This year will be my second year of following the draft live the day of. However it is my first year where I have taken in a lot of information on the players. I secretly have a guy I hope the Reds take in the first round, but I will keep it to myself.

[edabbs44]

This year will be my second year of following the draft live the day of. However it is my first year where I have taken in a lot of information on the players. I secretly have a guy I hope the Reds take in the first round, but I will keep it to myself.

What a tease.

[dougdirt]

Oh I know, but I think everyone here will tar and feather me for it, so its staying with me until the day of the draft, when then I can hope people are following the draft too much to worry about getting the tar long enough for me to run and hide.

[NewEraReds]

Oh I know, but I think everyone here will tar and feather me for it, so its staying with me until the day of the draft, when then I can hope people are following the draft too much to worry about getting the tar long enough for me to run and hide.

ill bring it out, especially if we pick the guy

[NewEraReds]

i have been working with a top 10, will knock it down to 5 tom and 2 or 3 on monday, stay tuned

[Outshined_One]

Just heard from one of my sources in Wisconsin that the Reds are high on HS lefty Anthony Butler. Apparently he's been hitting 95 on the gun, but has a strong commitment to Arkansas and his delivery is cause for concern since it requires some effort and strain on his shoulders.