Will Dunn break Foster's home run record this year?

[OnBaseMachine]

George Foster owns the Reds single-season home run record with 52 HR back in 1977. He finished that year with a statline of .320/.382/.631.

Adam Dunn is currently on pace to hit 61 home runs this years, which would easily break George Foster's record. Now the question is, can he keep it up? I doubt he will hit 61 but 52 is very much within reach. Dunn came with six HR in 2004 when he hit 46. In that 2004 season I can remember Dunn being robbed of two HR(one by Edmonds, another in Houston), plus he went through two very long streaks(18 days from May 11-May 29 and 16 days Sept. 11-Sept. 27) where he didn't hit a HR, which ruined his chance at breaking the record. If he can avoid a long HR drought this year - then I could defineatly see him challenging the record.

Dunn hit his eighth HR in April of 2004 and only four in May. He didn't hit his 13th HR of that year until the first day on June when he hit two down in Miami against Brad Penny and the Marlins. Dunn at this moment has 12 HR in the 2006 season, which puts him well above his 2004 pace. Again, if he avoids the long HR droughts then the record could be his.

I was just looking at some old boxscores on retrosheet. George Foster only had 4 home runs on this date(May 9) in 1977. He didn't hit his 12th home run of that year until June 8th in Shea Stadium. So, Dunn is well above Foster's pace in 1977.

George Foster-1977 Breakdown of month-by-month

Month       G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF  XI ROE GDP  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
April      19  70   9  23   3   1   3  20   6   1   9   1   0   3   0   0   2   1   2  .329  .375  .529
May        25  92  14  26   5   0   8  11  11   2  26   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   1  .283  .371  .598
June       28 114  30  38   8   0   9  38  10   1  18   2   0   1   0   1   4   1   0  .333  .394  .640
July       29 118  24  37   5   0  12  29  10   2  21   0   0   2   0   2   5   1   1  .314  .362  .661
August     29 116  26  34   5   0  12  28   8   1  22   0   0   1   0   3   4   0   0  .293  .336  .647
September  26  97  20  38   5   1   8  22  16   3  10   0   0   1   0   2   1   1   0  .392  .474  .711
October     2   8   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .125  .125  .125

I'll go with a yes. I think he will have a huge June and July to help boost him past Foster.

BTW, Ted Kluszewski holds the Reds all-time record for most homers in a season by a lefthanded hitter, with 49 in 1954. He followed that up with 47 more in 1955. Dunn sits third with his 46 in 2004.

Dunn also has a chance a few more Reds records this year, including most walks(132 by Joe Morgan), runs(139 by Bid McPhee), and AB/HR(11.7 by Ted Kluszewski).