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Thread: Stolen Bases

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Stolen Bases

    Does anybody have the scoop on the new approach to base stealing we've seen from this team. It seems that rather than a player by player situtational thing, there is a very organized approach.

    As a team, we don't run frequently, but when we do, we run a ton and are successful. My hunch is that Hatcher has taken the idea of the stolen base and really broken it down in to the 4 factors which matter:

    1.) Player speed
    2.) Pitcher speed to home plate
    3.) Ability to get a lead based of pitcher pick-off move
    4.) Catcher's arm

    They've basically gotten to the point where they've said "given pitcher X and catcher Y, I want Freel & Lopez going every time". If we know we can steal, we steal with impunity. If the percentages aren't there, we don't run. I like the approach quite a bit, but I think that has a lot to do with why both Freel and Lopez are getting their steals in bunches.

    We have enough power that stealing a base when it's a break even proposition just doesn't make sense. However, when the math shows you can steal easily, we're all over it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I think one of the more important things over looked is how often, and when a pitcher checks the runner. We have had walking leads and stolen off the pitcher numerous times this year. We seem to know when they are not going to throw back. It's working.

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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I think we just have more speed. FeLo is healthy and Phillips I can see getting some, but yes Kearns has even got one. I like it. wish Freel could get on base more. He can use a little break now with Griffey back. don't look for kenny to steal.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I was more referring to the observation that the Reds tend to steal in bunches. This isn't just more team speed leading to more stolen bases. This is an organized effort to exploit situations (catcher/pitcher combos). Whether Livan was slow to the plate or Schneider has no arm or both, a decision was made before the game ever started to run like crazy.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Speed and OB% at the top of this batting order really adds a vital weapon to our arsenal.

    I just finished reading a book on the BRM, and the chapter that really impressed me was how guys like Morgan and Griffey really disrupted a pitcher's rhythm and defense with their speed. And they were so good at it, that the defense knew they were gonna steal and were so worried about preventing it, yet there was little they could do to prevent it. Morgan carried a notebook on pitcher, their motions, and whatever "quirks" they had that would give him an advantage.

    Morgan made guys like Griffey and others better base stealers.

    Of course, another factor that added stealing was playing on "carpet".

    There is a time and place to be stealing and when not to be stealing.

    This is the first time, in the last several years anyway, that we've had guys at the top of this order who can not only get on base, but who have speed and know how to steal.

    And that is important. It's not simply possessing speed, but knowing how to steal.

    Properly utilized, and you've really added to your team's arsenal.
    Last edited by GAC; 05-11-2006 at 08:22 PM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I noticed Lopez turns his head and glances at the catcher about 3/4 of the way to second when he's stealing. I don't like that. Keep your eyes straight ahead. Looking, even glancing, only slows you down.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  8. #7
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I noticed Lopez turns his head and glances at the catcher about 3/4 of the way to second when he's stealing. I don't like that. Keep your eyes straight ahead. Looking, even glancing, only slows you down.
    I want to see where the throw is going to end up ... high/low/wide so I can make the best slide. Plus, if the catcher has dropped the ball, I don't want to slide at all, ditto if he has air-mailed it ... I want to look to get to 3rd.

    I always peaked.

    GL

  9. #8
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I used to peek, then some coaches told me you lose a half a step by turning your head.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  10. #9
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I used to peek, then some coaches told me you lose a half a step by turning your head.
    They told me that too. It sounds well out of the realm of possibility to me. Besides, I'd wager that the advantage gained overall is greater than a 1/2 step lost.



    GL

  11. #10
    Member smith288's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I used to peek, then some coaches told me you lose a half a step by turning your head.
    Bunk.

    What is this? Swimming? No wonder Lopez has a shaved head...the drag must have been a nightmare. Wonder if he shaves his arms too. LOL

    There is nothing lost taking a quick peek to see where the ball is going or if the ball is being thrown. Have it timed and I guarantee you 100 bucks the time makes no difference.

  12. #11
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by smith288
    Bunk.

    What is this? Swimming? No wonder Lopez has a shaved head...the drag must have been a nightmare. Wonder if he shaves his arms too. LOL

    There is nothing lost taking a quick peek to see where the ball is going or if the ball is being thrown. Have it timed and I guarantee you 100 bucks the time makes no difference.
    I dont know if this theory is based on wind or aero dynamics. My thought is you literally stop running as hard as you can when you turn bc you lose concentration.

  13. #12
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1
    I think we just have more speed. FeLo is healthy and Phillips I can see getting some, but yes Kearns has even got one. I like it. wish Freel could get on base more. He can use a little break now with Griffey back. don't look for kenny to steal.
    Dunn has one too; just recently... in the Phillies series I think (if not, it was against the Nats).
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

  14. #13
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51
    I dont know if this theory is based on wind or aero dynamics. My thought is you literally stop running as hard as you can when you turn bc you lose concentration.
    I would think that the look would have it's effect in terms of timing your gait to optimize your slide. Looking away may cause you to alter your last few steps in less than fluid fashion as you refocus on 2B... Pure conjecture.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #14
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51
    I dont know if this theory is based on wind or aero dynamics. My thought is you literally stop running as hard as you can when you turn bc you lose concentration.
    Yep. You lose concentration, and your body cannot physically run as fast with your head turned as it can when you're looking straight ahead. It makes sense to me -- running fast requires good balance, and turning your head throws that balance off. Track and field athletes rarely look anywhere but straight ahead when they're running.

    Gonelong may be right -- the benefits of seeing the play could potentially outweigh the loss of speed if there's an overthrow or a wild pitch, but in most cases I'd rather the runner focus on getting to second as quickly as possible.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  16. #15
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I think the Reds tied a club record last week for most SB's in 3 games.

    Sure you need speed in your line up but soft tossing junk ballers, guys that throw hard breaking balls that bounce in the dirt and weak armed catchers increase your odds.

    It was The Perfect Storm. No better time to roll the dice and take your chances.


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