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Thread: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

  1. #16
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    People are okay with Dunn-bashing, but when someone points out that Brandon Phillips has done NOTHING (and let's not kid ourselves, a mid-.500 OPS at the MLB level and only a decent minor league record is NOTHING) in baseball, and further is doing nothing to change his plate approach, that's a crime.

    This crap is going to make me insane. I really need to stay off these threads dealing with Dunn. Just avoid them altogether.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Have the admins/mods aprove every topic and post before it can show up on the forums.


  4. #18
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by CTA513
    Have the admins/mods aprove every topic and post before it can show up on the forums.

    Oh yeah, we need THAT kind of work. :

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  5. #19
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    People are okay with Dunn-bashing, but when someone points out that Brandon Phillips has done NOTHING (and let's not kid ourselves, a mid-.500 OPS at the MLB level and only a decent minor league record is NOTHING) in baseball, and further is doing nothing to change his plate approach, that's a crime.

    This crap is going to make me insane. I really need to stay off these threads dealing with Dunn. Just avoid them altogether.
    Pointing out that Phillips has offensive shortcomings is fine. Waiting until his hot streak ended to call him a 'black hole' is not particularly constructive. Especially when he leads the team in RBI, is 25, and also brings solid defense to the table.

    Gratuitous player bashing is never acceptible - against Dunn and everyone else. As I said, I defended Dunn for two years on a board where most people hate him. I'm sick of typing the same stuff over and over again...
    Last edited by NJReds; 05-22-2006 at 11:30 AM.

  6. #20
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds
    But there is a negative tone on the board. For example, B. Phillips has a few bad days at the plate and all of the sudden there's a post about him being a "black hole" in the lineup. Even though he leads the team in RBIs. That's more frustrating to me then the Dunn stuff. Dunn is and always will be a lightning rod for discussion.
    If Brandon Phillips was a good hitter, there'd be evidence of that in over seven seasons of professional baseball. But I won't get into that here, because there's another thread on that.

    RBI is a product of team OBP of the hitters in front you and your individual slugging percentage. And the last I looked, the team OBP of the hitters in front of you has nothing to do you with your individual hitting accomplishments. It's such a shame that people continually fail to understand the simple fact that when the OBP of the hitters in front of you is ridiculously high, you're likely to drive in a load of runs, even if you're a below average hitter.

    Brandon Phillips has 125 at bats this season, and 42 of them have occurred with runners in scoring position. That's 34 percent of his total at bats, compared to the league average in 2005 of 25 percent of all at bats occurring with runners in scoring position. Brandon Phillips has also had 65 at bats with runners on base, which is 52 percent of his total at bats. League average? Try 43 percent of all at bats.

    So no, I'm not at all surprised that Brandon Phillips leads the team in RBI since the ratio of his at bats with runners on and in scoring position is considerably higher than the league average, a feat that he deserves zero credit for. Stick a bunch of league average OBPs in front of him and his RBI total drops considerably. But when trying to explain that to people, the notion slides in one ear and right out the other. The more chances you have to drive in runs, the more runs you'll drive in. But people continue to overlook that simple fact, and when equating RBI total with good hitting, they're making a flawed analysis.

    I don't know about you, but I sure as heck don't want somebody running my team if that's the type of analysis they consider true and accurate.

    But this isn't about Adam Dunn, nor is it about Brandon Phillips. It's not about any single hitter or group of hitters on the team or in the league.

    No, it's not about any of them. It's about statistics, namely a colossal misunderstanding by several people to comprehend which statistics are vastly more valuable than others. Several people have a fondness for obsessing over inaccurate measures of player performance, especially RBI and BA w/RISP, and have absolutely zero concept about the lack of validity those stats carry. When presented with actual, factual evidence that those specific statistics are very poor indicators of a player's performance, those same people either ignore the evidence or respond in a way that shows that they have absolutely no desire to do anything except spout their own heavily misinformed opinion.

    It is like somebody saying the world is flat and then refusing to believe otherwise, or it's like somebody saying that the sun doesn't exist.

    The result of all this is we constantly see posts such as "I don't care what Bill James or your fancy stats say ... Adam Dunn sucks because he strikes out, has low RBI and can't hit with runners in scoring position."

    Yet it has been proven more times than I can ever count how absolutely wrong those assertions are, because the evidence that backs up those assertions fails miserably when tested a valid test of what constitutes actual run production.

    It's truly baffling and mind-boggling.
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 05-22-2006 at 11:38 AM.
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  7. #21
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    A lively debate about Dunn is to be expected. He is the big hitter in the lineup who brings an unusual mix of talents/deficiencies. So there is discussion, sometimes lively, and I don't mind that.

    To me the most interesting aspect of the debate is what the front office thinks. Does the new GM think that Dunn -- and Kearns, Griffey, Lopez -- are the kind of players who can make the Reds contenders? We all know the pitching has to keep improving, but it is not a given that this "core" of position players is necessarily good enough to compete with the best teams.

    So I wouldn't cut off discussion of Dunn, but I do think it would be interesting to discuss the broader question of whether the Reds should keep its position player core, whether these guys are potentially championship caliber.

  8. #22
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    It is like somebody saying the world is flat and then refusing to believe otherwise, or it's like somebody saying that the sun doesn't exist.
    That doesn't work simply because there's glaring evidence that proves Dunn isn't as good as some make him out to be. His defense is not good, his base running is suspect at best, and he just doesn't seem to "get it" when it comes to being a great player.

    I couldn't care less about the total strikeouts he has, but there is something to be said for his complete lack of understanding situations where you simply have to put the ball in play. Just yesterday on Edwin's double he wasn't running hard all the way. It's like he didn't think there was any way the ball was staying in the yard. You simply can't do that.

    Again, I think Dunn is a very good player and a valuable asset to this team, but there is plenty of room for criticism. I'd just like to see it evolve past the strikeout debate.

    Ignoring Dunn's faults is just as bad as ignoring his strengths.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  9. #23
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    If Brandon Phillips was a good hitter, there'd be evidence of that in over seven seasons of professional baseball. But I won't get into that here, because there's another thread on that.

    RBI is a product of team OBP of the hitters in front you and your individual slugging percentage. And the last I looked, the team OBP of the hitters in front of you has nothing to do you with your individual hitting accomplishments. It's such a shame that people continually fail to understand the simple fact that when the OBP of the hitters in front of you is ridiculously high, you're likely to drive in a load of runs, even if you're a below average hitter.
    So why not flip Phillips with a higher OPS guy--i.e. Dunn--so that these loads of RBI opportunities go to someone who could be more constructive with them than Brandon? Clearly, the #5 and #6 guys are getting on with a level of consistency that have allowed an otherwise mediocre singles hitter like Phillips to lead the team in RBI.

    One of people's complaints abotu Dunn is that he doesn't hit enough HRs with men on base. So why not try him in the 7 spot for awhile, and see what he can do with some of the opportunities currently being afforded to Brandon?
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  10. #24
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    he just doesn't seem to "get it" when it comes to being a great player.
    What does this even mean?

  11. #25
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by dsmith421
    What does this even mean?
    The intangibles. The ability to think one step ahead of the game. Look at Derek Jeter. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time. There's a select few who seem to be able to do that, and to this point, Dunn isn't one of them. Dunn got a late start in baseball, so maybe one day he will "get it", who knows?
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  12. #26
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    That doesn't work simply because there's glaring evidence that proves Dunn isn't as good as some make him out to be. His defense is not good, his base running is suspect at best, and he just doesn't seem to "get it" when it comes to being a great player.

    I couldn't care less about the total strikeouts he has, but there is something to be said for his complete lack of understanding situations where you simply have to put the ball in play. Just yesterday on Edwin's double he wasn't running hard all the way. It's like he didn't think there was any way the ball was staying in the yard. You simply can't do that.

    Again, I think Dunn is a very good player and a valuable asset to this team, but there is plenty of room for criticism. I'd just like to see it evolve past the strikeout debate.

    Ignoring Dunn's faults is just as bad as ignoring his strengths.
    Wait, so let me get this straight? Just because I try to objectively quantify Adam Dunn and every other player I attempt to analyze, I'm suddenly ignoring Dunn's faults? I'd sure like to see some examples where I've blatantly ignored all of Dunn's faults since you seem to be accusing me of doing just that. Chances are if I've ignored any fault of any player it's because the fault is so minimal it's not even worth debating about.

    I know Dunn's faults well, very well, in fact. I know the rough amount of negative value his faults cost us during the season, and I know that his negative value, when combined with his positive value, is a complete waste of time to concentrate on given the faults of every other player on the entire roster. Sure, let's all harp on Adam Dunn for being a below average left fielder while continuing to ignore the negative value certain other players cost us during the season at far more important defensive positions. That just makes all the sense in the world ...

    So again, ignoring Dunn's faults? Nope. Attempting to quantify their actual value? Of course.

    Adam Dunn has faults. Sean Casey has faults. Ken Griffey, Jr. has faults. Quinton McCracken has faults. Babe Ruth had faults. Ted Williams had faults. Ditto Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron.

    Every player that's ever stepped onto a baseball field has had faults. There is no such thing as the perfect player, because the perfect player has never existed and never will exist.
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  13. #27
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    So why not flip Phillips with a higher OPS guy--i.e. Dunn--so that these loads of RBI opportunities go to someone who could be more constructive with them than Brandon? Clearly, the #5 and #6 guys are getting on with a level of consistency that have allowed an otherwise mediocre singles hitter like Phillips to lead the team in RBI.

    One of people's complaints abotu Dunn is that he doesn't hit enough HRs with men on base. So why not try him in the 7 spot for awhile, and see what he can do with some of the opportunities currently being afforded to Brandon?
    Scott Hatteberg, Austin Kearns and Edwin Encarnacion. Three players who have all largely been the players batting in front of Brandon Phillips this season, and all three of them started off this season very well in terms of on-base ability. The chances of any of them continuing at that pace is highly unlikely.

    It's hilarious. I pointed out several weeks ago that the week Brandon Phillips won the Player of the Week with his incredible RBI total, Scott Hatteberg was batting one or two spots in front of him and had something like a .600 OBP during the week Phillips won that award. My post has been the only evidence on this board crediting Hatteberg's performance that week.

    Too bad Hatteberg's gotten absolutely zero credit from anyone else around here for his "share" in Phillips receiving all those accolades. If Hatteberg wasn't getting on base, Phillips doesn't drive in all those runs.
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 05-22-2006 at 12:26 PM.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    What makes the Dunn debate so interesting is that his talents and deficiencies are clear. He hits for power; doesn't hit for average; strikes out a lot; walks a lot; below average fielder; cautious baserunner. I don't think any of this is open to much question.

    Because of the walks and power, his OBP and OPS are high. For some people, this tells the whole story.

    But, with the strikeouts and low batting average, he makes his share of outs in key spots, often via the strikeout. This frustrates many posters.

    So the debate is really about this type of player -- not so much Dunn as an individual player -- and whether each of us as armchair GM wants such a player to have a prominent role on the team. It is an interesting debate.

  15. #29
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    I don't buy it. If Jeter played for Kansas City no one would be going on about what a great team guy he is. He'd be respected as an outstanding player but a great deal of his "moral authority" comes from pinstripes and four rings.

    If the Reds win 100 games this season and Dunn has a carbon copy of his last two years, the national media will be feting him for providing a "laid back attitude" in the clubhouse, for his ability to intimidate opposing pitching, etc., and largely ignoring his strikeouts and alleged failures with RISP.

    Fans tend to want to ascribe positive personality traits to athletes who win. We prefer to believe that a given team wins because of the quality of its character, its effort, etc., rather than God-given talent. So I think when you compare "intangibles"--whatever they are--and success, you've got a classic chicken-egg argument.

    The fact that the very concept is wholly immeasurable and unverifiable further complicates matters, because it makes for "I feel" arguments rather than "I believe this, based upon the following objective data" disputes.

  16. #30
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Wait, so let me get this straight? Just because I try to objectively quantify Adam Dunn and every other player I attempt to analyze, I'm suddenly ignoring Dunn's faults? I'd sure like to see some examples where I've blatantly ignored all of Dunn's faults since you seem to be accusing me of doing just that. Chances are if I've ignored any fault of any player it's because the fault is so minimal it's not even worth debating about.

    I know Dunn's faults well, very well, in fact. I know the rough amount of negative value his faults cost us during the season, and I know that his negative value, when combined with his positive value, is a complete waste of time to concentrate on given the faults of every other player on the entire roster. Sure, let's all harp on Adam Dunn for being a below average left fielder while continuing to ignore the negative value certain other players cost us during the season at far more important defensive positions. That just makes all the sense in the world ...

    So again, ignoring Dunn's faults? Nope. Attempting to quantify their actual value? Of course.

    Adam Dunn has faults. Sean Casey has faults. Ken Griffey, Jr. has faults. Quinton McCracken has faults. Babe Ruth had faults. Ted Williams had faults. Ditto Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron.

    Every player that's ever stepped onto a baseball field has had faults. There is no such thing as the perfect player, because the perfect player has never existed and never will exist.

    See what you did there? You went on and on basically saying "How dare you..." while completely ignoring the fact that I provided you faults.

    I'm not saying Dunn's faults are making him any less of a player, I'm saying they are keeping him from the next "level."

    Adam Dunn is a terrible situational hitter, and a below average fielder and baserunner, and there's no two ways about it. If someone is willing to gloss over that without any thought, then there's no point of discussing baseball with them. Baseball isn't played on a computer or in a Bill James book.

    His stats are impressive, but he's simply not as good as many people make him out to be. He's "bling-bling" and "flossing" material. I see no reason to go all MC Hammer for Adam Dunn. He's just not worth it.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute


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