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Thread: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

  1. #46
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    Twisting arguements 101. I hear you're a good teacher.

    Again, not once did I say he costs the team anything. Saying that would imply that he's not a good player or not valuable, two things I've never said. If he improved on his faults, he could provide the team more.

    There is a difference.
    I'm not twisting anything.

    I'm asking for whatever amount of value his faults cost us, and you're refusing to provide any information.

    You say he has faults. Fine, what's their negative value?

    It's as simple as that.
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  3. #47
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    Ignoring Dunn's faults is just as bad as ignoring his strengths.
    Unfortunately this board has gotten to point where folks are being put in the constant position of having to defend his strengths. When you have to justify that a guy who drives in 100+ runs every season can drive in runs, the discussion has officially gotten retarded.

    Quote Originally Posted by smith288
    The who idea of a stathead requiring a traditionalist to have stats to back up their gut instinct is like asking a polar bear why he chose the penguin instead of the seal at any particular time.
    I'm more interested in why so many supposed polar bears chose salad.

    We've got a lot of quality seamheads on the site, most of whom know their stats too. What I often find is that folks with an obsessive reliance on BA and pitcher's wins have falsely cloaked themselves as traditionalists. That's not a traditionalist argument. It requires no skills of observation whatsoever or any deeper insight into the game. It's just a reflection of being stuck on the most basic information provided on the backs of baseball cards and sports pages.
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  4. #48
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Maybe this thread should be a sticky and the permanent Adam Dunn thread.

  5. #49
    Duranie Ho, Ho, Ho! KittyDuran's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan
    It seems like there are about 10 new threads or more a day popping up about Adam Dunn. It's getting real old really fast. At times, it makes me not want to even open up threads here, because even topics that have nothing to do with Adam Dunn tend to have posts in them complaining about Adam Dunn. It's depressing.
    So why did you add another? : I should beat you with a wet noodle!!! Seriously, the answer to the Dunn question is somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately, both sides do not want to budge from their stance, to give the impression of being weak.

    I'm in the middle, but tend to be more on the "dark side", i.e. complaining about Dunn. Something happens when he's up at the plate w/RISP. It very complicated but to the average fan (which I'm one) we only see the Ks in critical situations. Other players do it - but why is Dunn so special and why do we care? It might be the hype, it might be because he's tall, from TX and a good ole boy, it might be the fact he's making a lot of money, it might be he gives good sound bites, etc. But the spotlight is on him [whether he or his fans like it]. I believe it comes with the territory. The moment he gets out of his slump, everybody will be jumping on the bandwagon, myself included - because when he does the team will be better for it.

    Now the BIG question... will there be another exodus to another fansite? In 2000, RedsZone was created because of the constant critisizing of Junior on the Cincinnati Talk board. Have we gotten that far yet?

    Just my 2 cents...

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  6. #50
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by dsmith421
    Well, the problem with the "traditionalist" position*, then, is that you can just make crap up out of whole cloth with no objective backing for it whatsoever.
    True. How about this analogy to Dunn. Can you give me a statistical reason as to why you dont like lima beans? Sure, they taste like dirt but they are pretty healthy and can help your body as a whole. Would you prefer the lima bean or some other option to help your body?

    Some here love the lima bean whereas others hate that lima bean and would prefer something that taste a little better to their liking... For the time being, im leaning on liking that lima bean but if it EVER lays down another bunt in its career...that lima bean's going down the disposal.
    Last edited by smith288; 05-22-2006 at 02:23 PM.

  7. #51
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    I'm not twisting anything.

    I'm asking for whatever amount of value his faults cost us, and you're refusing to provide any information.

    You say he has faults. Fine, what's their negative value?

    It's as simple as that.

    You said he has faults, as well.

    You're asking me to argue a point I've never made. I bet you're just waiting with some stats of your own to throw out at me just to prove me wrong and prove your dominance on this board. Talk about smug...

    I think I'm done with this place for a while. Too many people like this guy just waiting for anyone to disagree with them so they can prove them "wrong" and show their "knowledge."

    No amount of player bashing can approach that level of annoying.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  8. #52
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    You say he has faults. Fine, what's their negative value?

    It's as simple as that.
    That's not really a fair question, IMO, because not everyone on this board possesses the ability and knowhow to analyze and study statistics to the level that posters such as yourself can, Cyclone. Doing what you're asking isn't "simple", it requires a very thorough understanding of various statistics and how they relate to one another. Perhaps you believe that if he is incapable/unwilling to go through the rigors of an in-depth statistical anlysis, it's not his right to hold an opinion on this topic--or at least he should expect to receive flak if he does. Fair enough. But an opinion based on observation rather than statistical analysis isn't necessarily faulty.

    I, too, am tired of the seemingly endless attacks on Dunn and his performance. I, too, wish that some people would have a better understanding of the numbers that drive the game. But expecting every poster with a contrary opinion to be able to provide a summarized analysis of statistics to the level that you do is simply expecting too much, IMO, and is what leads to many of the disagreements between the "statheads" and the "traditionalists" that have arisen on this board in recent weeks.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  9. #53
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    You said he has faults, as well.

    You're asking me to argue a point I've never made. I bet you're just waiting with some stats of your own to throw out at me just to prove me wrong and prove your dominance on this board. Talk about smug...

    I think I'm done with this place for a while. Too many people like this guy just waiting for anyone to disagree with them so they can prove them "wrong" and show their "knowledge."

    No amount of player bashing can approach that level of annoying.
    Adam Dunn does have faults. He does cost the team some amount of negative value with his defense in the neighborhood of about 7-10 runs per season, depending on the fielding metric. That was real hard to type, let me tell you.

    Got another fielding metric that claims otherwise? Let's take a look at it. It may be more accurate, but we'll never know if you don't bring it up.

    And here's some points you "never made"

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    His defense is not good, his base running is suspect at best, and he just doesn't seem to "get it" when it comes to being a great player.
    I'm asking you to argue those points and provide some run value as to their worth.
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  10. #54
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    I bet you're just waiting with some stats of your own to throw out at me just to prove me wrong and prove your dominance on this board. Talk about smug...
    Enjoy your paranoia.

    Here's someone actively NOT ignoring Dunn's faults, but instead trying to discuss what their effect is and you won't have any of it. Seems clear to me your intent here isn't to talk about Adam Dunn.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #55
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    I do have a question about the runs created formula. Is it true that the only element in the formula that actually produces a run is the sac fly? On some unlikely level, you could have a huge runs created number while never actually producing a run. In real life, all those bases acquired tend to push runs home. And the runs created total supposedly comes pretty close to the team's actual runs total. But doesn't it, like the RBI, depend on the performance of other players? Dunn could be acquiring all kinds of bases, but if Hatteberg, Valentin and McCracken aren't driving him in, the runs aren't being created. Should the runs created factor in left on base? Should there be an on base percentage in innings that don't produce a run?

  12. #56
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Adam Dunn does have faults. He does cost the team some amount of negative value with his defense in the neighborhood of about 7-10 runs per season, depending on the fielding metric. That was real hard to type, let me tell you.

    Got another fielding metric that claims otherwise? Let's take a look at it. It may be more accurate, but we'll never know if you don't bring it up.

    And here's some points you "never made"



    I'm asking you to argue those points and provide some run value as to their worth.
    Ah, there you go again. Find for me where I ever said that Adam Dunn "costs" the team anything and I'll play your little game. Since you can't do that, have fun popping around the board proving everyone who has a different opinion than you wrong and wowing everyone with your vast "knowledge" of things other people came up with.

    Again, I'm done with this place and people like you for a while. The egos kill this place more than the "Adam Dunn suxxx!111!!1!" people.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  13. #57
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Enjoy your paranoia.
    Nah, you guys are really out to get him.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  14. #58
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Since I took the anti-Dunn approach for sake of argument, I got a worst beating than Vito took on the Sopranos Sunday night.

    I will now turn my discussions to the Paris Hilton/Matt Leniart affair.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

  15. #59
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    No, it's not about any of them. It's about statistics, namely a colossal misunderstanding by several people to comprehend which statistics are vastly more valuable than others. Several people have a fondness for obsessing over inaccurate measures of player performance, especially RBI and BA w/RISP, and have absolutely zero concept about the lack of validity those stats carry. When presented with actual, factual evidence that those specific statistics are very poor indicators of a player's performance, those same people either ignore the evidence or respond in a way that shows that they have absolutely no desire to do anything except spout their own heavily misinformed opinion.
    I'm by no means a statistician. But I appreciate the effort and research that go into the statistical analysis that go on here at Redszone. That's why I stick around.

  16. #60
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

    I know a lot of folks are very enamored by the BA with RISP stat.

    While I admit it would be nice if Adam Dunn hit for a higher BA,especially with RISP, I want to draw a comparison between two players to make a point. (I am using the three year splits 2003-2005)

    Juan Encarnacion

    Code:
    By Situation 	     AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	HBP 	SO 	SB 	CS 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS
    
    Scoring Position	432	149	125	23	5	11	169	48	10	66	3	2	.289	.365	.442	.807
    Adam Dunn

    Code:
    By Situation 	     AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	HBP 	SO 	SB 	CS 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS
    
    Scoring Position	365	183	82	22	0	27	150	127	10	122	8	2	.225	.431	.507	.938
    Now, by the metric (BA w/ RISP) that the anti-Dunn crowd likes to use in its' arguments, Juan Encarnacion is clearly better player than Adam Dunn because his BA w/ RISP is much higher. And yet, Dunn is producing an RBI every 2.43 AB's within this period while Encarnacion is producing an RBI every 2.55 AB's.

    Furthermore, over that entire period Encarnacion only had 232 in 1591 AB's (1 RBI every 6.85 AB's)

    During that same period Dunn had a total of 260 RBI's in 1492 AB's (1 RBI every 5.7 AB's)

    Additionally during that same period Encarnacion scored 202 runs while Dunn scored 282.

    How can this be if BA with RISP is the most important factor in evaluating a supposed middle of the order hitter?
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