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Thread: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

  1. #1
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    10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?

    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up?

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?

    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?

    10. How far away is this team from being a serious contender? Can Krivsky make enough moves at the trading deadline to bolster the club for the stretch run.
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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Are these essay questions or true/false or multiple guess?
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath
    Are these essay questions or true/false or multiple guess?
    Depends how you want to answer them. Short and sweet make better reading.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    I counted 12 questions
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    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?
    Its only going to get worse... Sorry.

    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up?
    He needs someone to go down with an injury. Better he gets consistent at bats at AAA than a couple a week sitting on the bench.

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?
    Yes, if theres a market for Dave freakin' Williams, I am confident that Larue is at least a somewhat attractive piece for a ball club in need.

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?
    They should give up nothing of consequence to the team unless it helps us beyond 2007.

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?
    Nope. Narron is okay, but it all boils down to the fact he was not Krivsky's hire.

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?
    They better take a college pitcher given the depth there.. its a no brainer.

    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?
    I have no freakin idea. My only guess is that we have no better option at this time, and it would only serve to make an already bad bullpen even worse if he was DFA'd. The inhouse options, while there, are still big ? marks.

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?
    Shoulder problems still? Not sure.. puzzling to say the least.

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?
    Be patient, only good things can come if he's able to stick at 3b. He'll improve. His range is much more valuable at 3b than it is at 1b.

    10. How far off is this club from being a serious contender? Are they playing over their heads or can they improve their first half performance?
    They're not a contender this year. Playing way above their heads. Which was fun to watch, but now its going to make the dispair for some who thought otherwise that much worse. Next year they could be a contender if they make the right moves. The Reds would need to sign a couple of big name FA pitchers - which will cost money - draft a college pitcher or two who could possibly make an impact in 2007(i.e jared weaver type) - and fix up the bullpen. Rcast will also have to open up the wallet if he wants to contend in 2007 and beyond.
    Last edited by cincyinco; 05-29-2006 at 10:16 PM.
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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Cincyinco.. Mad props to you! I have to agree with you.. good post!

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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    My answers in bold
    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?
    See me at the All-Star Break

    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up?
    Trade Junior to the White Sox

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?
    No. But Colorado might be.

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?
    None. This wasn't supposed to be their year. Its been a pleasant surprise and i'm glad this start happened. But don't get me wrong, this offense can do it when its on, and unless we can give up spare parts for a rent-a-few-months pitchers, no deal.

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?
    I'm not sure Narron's the answer, or even Pinella. See me in August.

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?
    Draft as many pitchers that you can.

    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?
    Because he admits he sucks. He's building a house and unless the Royals need him, he staying until he DFA's. We don't have to stop at Rick White either. Unless he thinks he can pitch like Arroyo, Mercker needs to buzz his hair,cause that's not helping his ERA either.

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?
    Jim Bowden happened.

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?
    The kid stays at third. Let's face it, 3rd base in the major leagues takes a while. 55 games at 3rd with some throwing issues isn't going to make or break his career. I'd wonder what he could do in LF, honestly.

    10. How far away is this team from being a serious contender? Can Krivsky make enough moves at the trading deadline to bolster the club for the stretch run.
    Will I get negged for my answer? I think this team isn't going to contend for probably 3 years. Griffey's contract is gone and there will be rewards from good drafts and quality cost-control (not cheap). There will always be stretches like there was in April and some like there are right now. Yeah, its easy to get pitching to go with this offense, but it will take offense to get that pitching. And we've not even talked about this defense.
    And that's my story.
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    I'll give it a try.
    1. As long as Narron is manager, this is as good as it gets.
    2. Deno needs a trip to the dl by one of the three starting of's to get a call up.
    3. There may be a market for LaRue but he hasn't looked so hot this year so that probably hasn't helped.
    4. Don't give up the future (Bruce, Bailey, EdE, Coffey) for a WC this year.
    5. No, Lou in '07. Maybe I'm living in the past, but it was a nice past!
    6. Sure, take college pitchers.
    7. Rick White will be gone at some point, however, injuries to others in the bp (Mercker, Belisle) are making the FO gunshy in pulling the trigger on it. At some point the light bulb will go off and they'll figure out that some kid can pitch just as poorly and get a little experience.
    8. Ryan Wagner is quickly becoming a trivia question--maybe I should change my answer on #6.
    9. Be patient with EdE. George Brett was a terrible fielder when he first came up.
    10. I think the team isn't that far from being a serious contender. The SP has improved, the BP has a couple of decent young arms and the offense can be very very good or very very bad-since no one is running away with anything this year, they may be in the hunt at least until August this year!
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?
    This is a fallacious argument that drives me nuts. I've done draft prognostication for the NFL and MLB for the past few years. Every year, it seems like one particular position is deep in potential talent.

    Take for example the 2006 NFL Draft, which had a number of good LBs available. Given that I went to UW-Madison, I knew plenty of Packers fans. The Packers were heavily rumored to go with OSU LB AJ Hawk (which they inevitably did), but a number of them were firmly against it. Their reasoning was that because the draft was so deep in LBs, the Packers could afford to take some one like Maryland TE Vernon Davis and address LB in a later round.

    However, there are some problems with this line of reasoning. The first one is rather obvious. Even though a position may be deep, there still is an inherent hierarchy based on talent and potential. While some one like Chad Greenway may have been the first LB off the board in other years, what does that make Hawk? Would he have been worth the #1 overall? AJ Hawk was clearly the best LB in this year's class. While some one like D'Qwell Jackson might turn out to be a fine player, he does not have the same tools and ceiling that Hawk has.

    Secondly, take a look around baseball at all of the guys who have been drafted. Look at the All Star rosters year in, year out. More often than not, the most talented and decorated guys in baseball will have been drafted in the first round. Yes, there are guys who've been drafted in the much later rounds, say the 15th or 20th, who went on to be All Stars. Those guys are the exception, not the norm. The odds of finding a future productive starter decreases as each round goes by. Scouts are not able to predict the future, but they do a pretty good job of knowing what guys should be drafted where.

    Finally, the MLB draft is the biggest crapshoot of any other draft. While guys like Chad Cordero, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jered Weaver ascended to the majors within a relatively short period of time after their drafting, the majority of guys require plenty of time and patience. Most guys taken in the MLB draft will likely never live up to their hype. Injuries, failure to adjust, and a number of other factors will always keep guys from reaching the majors.

    That is why it's typically a dumb idea to draft based on need. If there aren't any signability concerns, teams need to take the best players on their boards. Maybe the Reds' system could use a pitching boost, but if some one like SS/3B Evan Longoria manages to drop to them, they should take him. If there's a logjam at whatever position he plays, another team will want to trade for him or perhaps an injury could give him an opportunity to play and flourish. Depth can really help, ya know?

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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?
    The offense over 162 games will easily be in the top 5 for runs produced/scored in the NL, and should be within the top 10 of all offenses. The bullpen is an issue, simply put. At best, we have 3 starters. As for the D, I think we'd have to improve with the addition by subtraction method. A position player would have to get moved to improve pitching, and then someone with a lessor stick but better D would be the plug in.

    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up?
    Injury to Dunn, Kearns, Griffey or Kearns or Griffey traded for Denorfia to get the call up. Him sitting on the bench as a 4th OF would probably diminish his skills. I would never root for an injury, and while I would rather see the Dunn to 1B, Griffey to LF, Denorfia to CF line of logic, I just can't imagine we'll ever see this happen.

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?
    My answer, no. But I post on RZ, and I don't work in a FO, so what do I know? Kelly Stinnett is the freakin backup in the Bronx, so I have to hope there's a market there, and the Nationals catching situation and GM situation has to give me hope that maybe LaRue can find a home in the DC area. His age, diminishing skills, and contract worry me. I don't think I'm alone here.

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?
    Personally, whatever we win this year is a bonus, so while I'd love to see us make a legit playoff push, I'm not betting the farm for this year. That being said, if we can move Homer Bailey for a proven #2 starter, I'd do it. Bailey is a crapshoot. Boom or bust, and with him being an arm drafted out of HS, I lean towards bust. Hopefully he doesn't go the Howington or Gruler route, but history does have a habit of repeating itself. Honestly, I can't imagine that there would be 1 or 2 deals at the deadline that would secure us a playoff spot, so I'm conflicted by this situation.

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?
    Lemme make this crystal clear. O'Brien picked Narron. Let WK pick his man. So far WK is making the seemingly right moves. Personally, I think Narron is mismanaging this team, and maybe if we had a Lou Pinella to fill out a lineup card with Dunn @ 1B, Griffey in LF and Denorfia in CF, then maybe I could back a manager who actually manages, as opposed to one letting the inmates run the prison. I think the players run Narron, not the other way around.

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?
    Yes. Howington, Gruler, Bailey. HS. I'd rather take a college arm that's faced better quality talent than some flash in the pants (hopefully not leather) HS kid who is unproven.

    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?
    Time will tell on this one. It's Memorial Day. Who's to say by 4th of July Rick White's contract isn't on the same page of the General Ledger next to Womack's?

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?
    My best guess is that when he put on that suit thinking he was making the trip North on the 25 man roster and found out otherwise, he was crushed, and hasn't gotten over it. Hurt pride/ego, what have you, but he had a spring that IMO warranted being on the 25 man, but the higher ups didn't see it that way. AAA stats for a guy like him don't mean much to me b/c I honestly believe that he needs to face big league talent to get his confidence back. If not, then call him our Rick Ankiel and move him to the OF, b/c we clearly don't have enough of those as is...

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?
    I'm more concerned about the guy next to him. From observation, it seems EE's problems stem from trying too hard after getting to the ball, resulting in more often than not a throwing error. Lopez not getting to balls is what keeps me up at nights. Memorial Day 2007 and EE still can't get his throws under control, then maybe him and Phillips should audition at SS, b/c they both seem to have SS range.

    10. How far away is this team from being a serious contender? Can Krivsky make enough moves at the trading deadline to bolster the club for the stretch run.
    Serious contender? If we are no more than 5 games out of the Wildcard at the trading deadline, then I might consider us a contender, but I'm not sure how serious. While I hope we have some continued success in 2006, I think 2007 is the year to put most of the eggs in the basket. While WK has made some solid moves so far, in no way shape or form is this really his vision of the Reds. Let him mold this bunch, and see what happens in the offseason.

    Great questions BTW Krusty

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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?

    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up?

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?

    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?

    10. How far away is this team from being a serious contender? Can Krivsky make enough moves at the trading deadline to bolster the club for the stretch run.
    1. The Reds seem to do well in a series, feel good, then kick back and have some great clubhouse times, and lose some ugly games following. I don't see them playing better than .500, if that. The defense can improve. They're young. The main defensive worry is in left where Dunn has gotten worse.

    2. A marquee OF needs to be traded.

    3. If a big-market contender loses their catcher to injury.

    4. Depends on where they stand--if they can win the division, go for it. If they are fighting for the wild-card or less, no. The wild card is a gamble with far less visibility than the division title.

    5. No.

    6. I have faith this Reds F.O. will draft well, college pitchers or no.

    7. There was a more obvious replacement for Womack.

    8. Another talented pitcher the Reds made into a head case--see: Reitsma.

    9. Encarnacion works hard on his D and is very young--he will get better.

    10. The team needs to re-define itself to contend. They can't play the power hitting/power starting pitching game--those players are the most expensive and only the big markets can afford that type of game. They must go the defense/power bullpen/balanced hitting route. What would I do?:
    A) Trade Adam Dunn. Max value right now for a player who really fits into a game plan the Reds ultimately can't afford.
    B) Acquire top bullpen help. A reliever who throws in the mid-to-upper 90s can be gotten for 2-4 million/yr. , much cheaper than a power starter 8-12 million/yr. If the Reds got three power relievers, they'd make big strides toward contending.
    C) If the Reds have 4 potential 12-15 game winners, they're in good shape. They have that in Arroyo and Harang. We'll see about Claussen. With Homer on the way and/or a surprise performer the Reds may be OK.
    Last edited by Wheelhouse; 05-30-2006 at 12:11 AM.
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    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Outshined_One
    That is why it's typically a dumb idea to draft based on need. If there aren't any signability concerns, teams need to take the best players on their boards. Maybe the Reds' system could use a pitching boost, but if some one like SS/3B Evan Longoria manages to drop to them, they should take him. If there's a logjam at whatever position he plays, another team will want to trade for him or perhaps an injury could give him an opportunity to play and flourish. Depth can really help, ya know?


    Couldn't agree more with what you said. Theres a handful of college pitchers with high ceilings. But this draft is going to get real thin real quick beyond the first 20 picks in round 1. I hear the drop off is that significant. Take the college pitcher while you can, before its gone. Not only do I think that it would be a pick that fulfills the requirement of best talent on the board, it would also fill a need. Evan Longoria is not going to fall to us. No way. Tim Lincecum might, perhaps, if things go just perfectly - but for the most part, when the draft gets to us at the 8 spot, theres going to be some type of college pitcher with a high ceiling that we can target. Marrow, Lincoln, Lincecum, etc.
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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?
    I think this is a low point, but the high point of the start of the year isn't what to expect either..this is at best a .500 ball club.

    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up?
    Get older by about 20 years apparently

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?
    Not if we want anything in return, I think he needs to get hot first

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?
    That would be a terrible move, this team isn't built to get anywhere in the playoffs, the goal to me isn't to get there it's to win, no moves that don't also help 07 and beyond

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?
    Lou was never coming back, I'm not a Narron fan though.

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?
    I think they are, at best someone who will help in a few years not 5-10 years

    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?
    Doubt they think what's in AAA or AA is better

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?
    Shattered confidence, needs a new start somewhere

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?
    Moving him before he's had at least 3 years at 3rd would be pure insanity

    10. How far away is this team from being a serious contender? Can Krivsky make enough moves at the trading deadline to bolster the club for the stretch run.
    3-5 years away
    Go Gators!

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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco


    Couldn't agree more with what you said. Theres a handful of college pitchers with high ceilings. But this draft is going to get real thin real quick beyond the first 20 picks in round 1. I hear the drop off is that significant. Take the college pitcher while you can, before its gone. Not only do I think that it would be a pick that fulfills the requirement of best talent on the board, it would also fill a need. Evan Longoria is not going to fall to us. No way. Tim Lincecum might, perhaps, if things go just perfectly - but for the most part, when the draft gets to us at the 8 spot, theres going to be some type of college pitcher with a high ceiling that we can target. Marrow, Lincoln, Lincecum, etc.
    I was using that as an example more than anything else. Longoria is considered the safest bet among this year's crop of position players, albeit his ceiling isn't exactly All Star quality. Considering the Rockies are rumored to be enamored with him at #2, the likelihood of him falling to the Reds is remote.

    My point was not so much that the Reds should focus on college pitching early on as it was that the Reds should simply take the best guy available. It just so happens that this year, college pitching is the draft's strongest point (although I've heard good things about the Juco guys). It's likely that when the Reds come to most of their picks, a college pitcher will be the best guy available.

    The overall talent pool appears lackluster, but who knows? Guys like Drew Stubbs or Clayton Kershaw could be All Stars some day.

  16. #15
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    Re: 10 Questions Begging For An Answer

    1. Is this as good as it gets for the Reds with their recent play? Playing at a .500 clip with the offense and bullpen sputtering and starting pitching so-so? And can the horrible defense improve?
    Yup, this is about as good as it gets. There are two guys in the bullpen I trust to get outs consistently: Coffey and Weathers. The defense is going to be awful as long as 2/3s of the outfield can't field their positions effectively, as long as the SS position continues to lack range, and as long as EE keeps making rookie mistakes.

    Oh yeah -- and for the bad news: the starting pitching is going to normalize out too.


    2. What does OF Chris Denorfia need to do to get a call-up
    Start putting Weight Gain 2000™ in Austin Kearns' gatorade.

    3. Is there a market for Jason LaRue given his two-year contract is worth over 4 million dollars?
    Always -- once he gets back towards his career norms hitting, there will be a market for a good-hitting, plus-defense catcher.

    4. How much of the future should the Reds give up at the trading deadline in order to possibly take a wildcard spot?
    None. They're not going to make a wild card run this year with the pitching they have. They should absolutely be trying to sell at the deadline and concentrate on having a contender ready in a year or two, when some of the pitching starts to perculate up to the high minors and when the contracts for Milton and Griffey come off the books. I'd be actively looking to move everyone other than Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo at the deadline.

    5. Is Narron's performance so far this season putting to rest about rumors of Lou Pinella being in a Reds uniform come 2007?
    Nope, but there's not a manager in the world that can make a team do more than it's talent level allows.

    6. Are the Reds better off taking a college pitcher with the lst round pick of the amateur draft given the depth of college pitchers?
    The Reds should take the best player available, regardless of position. The Diamondbacks are stocked with position prospect talent right now at the high minors, and they're in a position to trade from strength for a player like Dontrelle Willis.

    The Reds need good prospects of any type, not just pitching


    7. If the Reds were willing to eat Womack's contract, why won't they eat Rick White's contract given his performance?
    Because they had someone who could do Womack's job better on the roster in the form of Brandon Phillips. No such luck in the bullpen. The fact that Rick White is still in a Reds uniform speaks volumes about how low the current regime is on Ryan Wagner.

    8. What the heck happen to RHP Ryan Wagner?
    He's gone from this roster by next season, if not sooner. The current administration clearly feels that he brings nothing to the table. Textbook study in the mental aspects of pitching being just as important as the physical aspects. He and Rick Ankeil could write a book.

    9. Would you remain patient with Edwin Encarncion's fielding woes at third or would you consider a more permanent move to lst base?
    I'd remain patient. He's more valuable to the team, long term, as a third baseman and there's certainly nobody pressing him for PT right now. It's too early to give up on the kid, esepcially considering he's also covering a bit for the fact that Lopez can't range to his right as much as other good shortstops. Plus defense from the SS position would help EE out tremendously

    10. How far away is this team from being a serious contender? Can Krivsky make enough moves at the trading deadline to bolster the club for the stretch run.
    This team won't be a serious contender until at least 2008. Krivsky is going to blow this project up at the deadline and in the offseason and re-make the squad in a more Minnesota image -- namely, sacrafice offensive production for strong defense and better pitching. I'm now firmly convinced that Adam Dunn is going to be moved to another ballclub and replaced with a better glove in left -- or with Jr. possibly going to left and a better glove brought to center. I have no emperical evidence to support this other than a near-center gut feeling.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...


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