tbball10, looking back its a bit easier to choose who you would have picked....I like the Bailey pick though myself.
tbball10, looking back its a bit easier to choose who you would have picked....I like the Bailey pick though myself.
Me too, and I still love the pick, because he will be a dominant pitcher in the majors. i was just wondering who traderumor would have selected in the draft besides Bailey. The top 4 college pitchers were already off the board, and Bailey has outperformed 2 of them (Humber and Niemann). Tell me if you disagree, but the only pitchers from the 1st round of that draft that have clearly pitched better than Homer are Verlander and Sowers who were picked ahead of him, and also, Jared Weaver and Phillip Hughes. their are others who are close to Homer in stats, but don't compare in potential. He's only 20, and once he harnesses his stuff, he is going to be great.
I dunno, lets look at the college arms taken in the 2004 first round.
Justin Verlander speaks for himself. He was gone.
Phillip Humber has not pitched this year, and has only made it 1 level ahead of where Bailey is despite being 3 years older than Bailey. Numbers arent impressive.
Jeff Niemann has pitched all of 30 minor league innings and has yet to pitch this year.
Jeremy Sowers....well we all know that story. He was gone also.
Everyone after this was available at the time the Reds drafted now.
Wade Townsend had TJ surgery in the offseason I believe....man that Rice Trio turned out well.
Thomas Diamond is currently in AA at the age of 23. He has a 3.13 ERA and a wHIP of 1.39. He has a k/bb ratio of 60/32 and a bb/9 of 6.29/9. His k/9 is 11.73.
Jared Weaver, his numbers are quite good. He recently made his Major League Debut. Last year in a split between A+ and AA he had a 3.82 and 3.98 as a 22 year old. This year in AAA he had a 2.05 ERA before his call up.
Bill Bray is a reliever, so we wont go into that much.
David Purcey is 24 and in AAA with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
Chris Lambert is 23 and in AA with a 5.11 ERA.
Glen Perkins is 23 in AA with a 3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.31 bb/9, 10.17 k/9.
Taylor Tankersley is a reliever.
Matt Campbell struggled last year in the MWL as a 22 year old with an ERA of 4.66 and a WHIP of 1.74. He has yet to pitch this year due to arm troubles.
JP Howell started 15 games for the Royals in 2005, he had an ERA of 6.19. He is currently in AAA with an ERA of 5.67.
Zach Jackson is 23 and in AAA with an ERA of 3.00, WHIP of 1.33, bb/9 is 3.63, k/9 is 6.16.
Justin Orenduff is 23 and in AA with an ERA of 3.40, WHIP of 1.17, bb/9 is 3.40 and k/9 is 9.65.
Tyler Lumsden is 23 and in AA with an ERA of 3.27, WHIP of 1.26, bb/9 is 3.13 and k/9 is 6.68.
Matt Fox struggled badly in rookie ball in 2005 and has yet to pitch in 2006 due to numerous injuries.
Huston Street is a reliever....very good one too.
Jeff Marquez was the last player of the first round. He is 21 and is playing in the FSL. His ERA is 4.86, WHIP is 1.60, walk and strikeout numbers arent anything to write home about either.
With all of that typed up and time wasted on my behalf, does Homer Bailey really look like he was a wasted pick...heck I might even argue that between Gio Gonzelez, Bailey, Rogers, Hughes and Elbert have all outperformed their college counterparts on a larger scale so far from the 2004 first round...
i agree. some of these guys are competing at higher levels than bailey, but are also alot older, and it's not like many of them are blowing away their competition.
I don't play the "who would you have picked" game, and it isn't really relevant here, anyhow. The disagreement with the pick is in principal and has little to do with the merits of the individual, so trying to determine who would have been a better pick would have been the highest ranked college starting pitcher on the board. Fill in a name if it matters.Originally Posted by tbball10
See, draft picks are going to have higher success rates when the principals underlying the picks are solid. The choice of a HS power pitcher was flawed from the start and revealed a flawed draft philosophy for 1st rd. picks, so it really doesn't matter what the individuals have done subsequently in viewing picks as success/failure. I am curious to see what Krivsky's 1st draft looks like in philosophy, although in honesty, I'm not sure it will be apparent from the initial one, but may take a few more to glean any particular axioms in operation.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
my guess is that would have been wade townsend who was picked right after bailey. i don't think he's even pitched as a professional, although i could be wrong, but i have not found any stats.
Sorry, but this is where I think the draft-day ideologies lose all touch with reality.it really doesn't matter what the individuals have done subsequently in viewing picks as success/failure
From my perspective, the ONLY way to say that a pick has been a success or a failure is by citing that player's subsequent performance. And it takes several years of performance before you can make a conclusive judgment.
And when it comes to categorizing players by age/position, the best study I've seen (Baseball Prospectus) showed results indicating that the college hitters are clearly the safest picks, while college pitchers and HS pitchers showed about the same success rate. HS position players were shown to be the riskiest picks. I believe they were looking at the top rounds only. It's a several-part study with Rany Janerzyli (sp?) as the lead guy. If I had more time, I'd post some of the findings.
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