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Thread: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

  1. #1
    Worth The Wait
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    Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    Juniorís injuries/games missed makes it difficult to compare total production numbers to his counterparts in the NL that bat third in the line-up, but a quick glance at OBP gives a real hint as to how far Griffey has slipped and how mis-used he is by Narron.

    I still want Junior in our line-up, and his sweet swing still makes him a long ball threat, especially if weíre down by multiple runs late in a game. However, he simply isnít a productive 3 hole hitter anymore. Not even close. IMO, he is hitting third based SOLEY on reputation and nothing more.

    Check out the on base percentage of the other typical NL #3 hitters (I excluded the Giants because they have used almost everyone in that spot).

    Albert Pools .449
    Derek Lee .448
    Miguel Cabrera .444
    Nomar Garcia Para .421
    Sean Casey .417
    Chipper Jones .409
    Todd Helton .404
    Brian Giles .399
    Carlos Beltran .389
    Lance Berkman .377
    Aaron Rowand .351
    Chad Tracy .350
    Alfonso Soriano .347
    Geoff Jenkins .326
    Ken Griffey Jr. .300

    Itís not even CLOSE. Junior just isnít getting on base, he isnít producing runs like he used to and he is now arguably one of the poorest 3 hole hitters in MLB. Not only should Junior move from CF, but itís also time to drop him in the order.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    The Reds are 13th in slot 3 by OPS, but that is slugging heavy.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...11&season=2006

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    I'm about to ask a question that just cuts to the heart of ego, I think, but why is the #3 spot -- and centerfield, for that matter -- such a "prize"? Griffey is a great hitter in many ways. If he happens to do that hitting in, say, the #5 spot where his hitting will be more beneficial for everyone, is anyone really going to think less of him? If he makes a great catch in left field or at first, is anyone going to view it as a less worthy catch because of where he made it? This is a baseball team, not an individual race. This is kind of the stuff they teach you in nursery school.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    vatican--

    The goal is to give the TEAM the best chance to win over a 162 game season. There's a reason Albert Pujols hits third for the Cards and why Derek Lee won an MVP hitting third for the Cubs. Over the course of a very long season, that slot in the line-up comes up more often, w/ more run-scoring opportunities than spots lower in the order. A tough-out in the #3 hole also makes your clean-up hitter more dangerous. We might see an increase in Dunn's production if Junior got on base more frequently in front of him.

    I certainly don't mean to "trash" Junior-- I want him out there. But IMO, our overall line-up, and therefore the chances for team success would be increased if Junior was moved down in the order.

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin
    vatican--

    The goal is to give the TEAM the best chance to win over a 162 game season. There's a reason Albert Pujols hits third for the Cards and why Derek Lee won an MVP hitting third for the Cubs. Over the course of a very long season, that slot in the line-up comes up more often, w/ more run-scoring opportunities than spots lower in the order. A tough-out in the #3 hole also makes your clean-up hitter more dangerous. We might see an increase in Dunn's production if Junior got on base more frequently in front of him.

    I certainly don't mean to "trash" Junior-- I want him out there. But IMO, our overall line-up, and therefore the chances for team success would be increased if Junior was moved down in the order.
    Oh no, I totally agree with you. That's exactly my point -- if he's more beneficial for the team in the 5 spot (or out of centerfield), I really don't see what the big deal is to move him. People view the #3 spot as some sort of golden trophy, when the fact is there are no golden trophies in baseball until October. I don't know why people would view moving him as a demotion.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    I don't think Junior has played enough for us to make that determination. I mean I really couldn't see him finishing with much less than a .350 OBP and .500 SLG. He has a ridiculous amount of RBI's though for his playing time and for his other stats. He is hitting a lot less doubles but I mean considering he missed about 80 at bats he can still rebound. Too early to tell.... he's not the player he once was but I think he's still a .275, 35, 120 kinda guy maybe. I mean if he starts the rest of the season he's pacing almost 150 RBI's. I assume his average with increase, power stay the same and RBI's decrease. Having said that... he would have even MORE RBI's a little lower in the order. So that would probably be the best thing... either 4th or 5th.

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    White Castle to the Nile Crash Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    Not only that, but it's also like having a catcher running the bases. He's either very leery of getting hurt, or he's just not interested in running the bases like a normal player.

    Having a station-to-station runner in the 3rd hole hurts a bit too.
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    The sample is too small-only 110 or so official at bats. I would not be at all surprised to see Junior's OBP be thirty to fifty points higher in another month or two. Whether Junior hits third or fifth in the lineup also would have a very limited effect on the number of runs the Reds score. Finally, some sabermetric studies indicate that a team's best hitter should bat second or fourth, not third.
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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    The sample is too small-only 110 or so official at bats.
    125 august and september ab's and only 9 walks in 2005.

    (hidden by the man's hitting .355)

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    He has been receptive in the past to batting 4th and perhaps 5th. Much more receptive than he has been to moving to another position. Of course that isn't saying much.
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    Reds Slacker '07 RedsMan3203's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    Snice coming off the DL JR has hit 5 home runs, 21 RBI and scored 8 runs.

    He has 20 hits in 79 ABs, drawing 3 walks and Striking Out 16 times.

    I think JR is turning it on... and he will move up in that ranking by the end of June to Mid July.
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    His rbi/ab totals have been great, but he has lost all patience to take a walk this year.

    Since he's been a Red, his walk rates have been:

    2000 - 6.42 (ab/bb)
    2001 - 9.27
    2002 - 8.03
    2003 - 7.14
    2004 - 7.81
    2005 - 8.24
    2006 - 16.71

    I think his bat is still very dangerous, but I think a move to #4 makes sense, especially if Dunn's sudden memory of how to hit to all fields has returned, making him the easy choice for #3.
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    I'd flip flop him and Dunn 3/4 if he's not going to be walking..slugger with walks is better then slugger with no walks.

    And JR is my fav player of all time so save your "Everyone hates JR" crap for somebody else
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    hmmm. I think missing the 3+ weeks makes it a small sample. I guess I'll have to think about this more, but I see Griffey with 28 RBIs only 4 RBIs behind the Reds leader and think with him missing all those games that's pretty darn good. Like last night. Not just a HR, but a key single up the middle where Dunn has struggled mightily in those situations. I like it the way it is. for me it doesn't matter though. I just want Griffey up with guys on base so maybe putting Dunn in front would be a good thing, but I'd rather have Griffey up with RISP before Dunn so I guess that means Griff in the 2 hole.
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    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake

    here is my ideal lineup:

    1)Phillips-2b
    2)Lopez-ss
    3)Dunn-lf
    4)Griffey-cf
    5)Kearns-rf
    6)Hatteberg-1b
    7)EE-3b
    8)Larue/Ross/Valentin-c


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