Does Baseball America really have a clue?

[paulrichjr]

OK I have thought about this for awhile now and am ready to take the heat for finally speaking up...

The Reds are constantly harped on for having a bad farm system yet just this year we have brought up Coffey, EdE and the Lizard all from a "bad" farm system.

Now what got me thinking about this was the Yanks who are regularly criticized for their farm system have brought up a number of players the last couple of years including Wang, Cabreara and Cano who have been very good while their farm system is said to be barren. What is up with these ranking publications?

(By the way the teams with the great farm systems...Dodgers, Angels, Rays, Indians...they are all looking up at the Reds this year.)

[Danny Serafini]

Actually two of those three you mentioned came up for good last year, and the other saw time last year as well.

I think it's fair to say that the farm system isn't that good. Louisville is virtually devoid of true prospects. There looks like some promising talent, but it's all in the lower levels. Wait a year or two for them to mature, and the farm system will look a lot better.

[The_jbh]

edy e was a top 50 prospect. Todd Coffey is a reliever, plenty of good relievers aren't considered "good prospects" because the have smaller ceilings or whatever. I'm not covninced that lizard will ever be better than a #5 starter. BA's knock on the reds is we have a top heavy farm system. Our depth is extremely poor on legit prospects

[BuckeyeRedleg]

The thing about that is that the perception of a farm system can go from bottom of the barrel to top of the mountain in no time.

I think they had the Reds 30th at the beginning of this year.

I bet they will be closer to 20th next year due to the perception of a competent new ownership and front office as well as the emergence of Cueto, the additions of Loo and Stubbs, and continued development of Wood, Bruce, and Bailey.

Also, if they were out of it by July (which it doesn't look like) a firesale adds to the depth of a system. Some of the so-called top farm systems landed 2-3 of their top prospects by trading away high-priced veterans at the deadline.

Right now the two organizations I would fear as a N.L. competitor would be Arizona and LA. Both have absolutely loaded farm sysetms with true talent at the big league level now. They should both be dominating that division for the next few years. The Brewers system looks strong in the Central, but that's only because they were able to draft very high for a number of years. They went from (being ranked by BA) 30th, 26th, 16th, to 1st and now 3rd by failing miserably enough as a team that they were able to draft no-brainer picks early on.

The Cubbies have been a BA darling for years (2nd, 1st, 3rd, 7th, and now 10th) for years but have actually not contributed much talent to the big league roster, with the exception of Prior.

[TRF]

The true measure of a farm system can be said like this: "Does your farm generate an inpact player in the major leagues every year?"

Prior to EE, who would that have been? Mind that the impact player does not necessarily need to come from inside the organization. The latest i imagine was Basham. He turned into Ross, and Ross has been an impact player this year.

[registerthis]

The true measure of a farm system can be said like this: "Does your farm generate an inpact player in the major leagues every year?"

Prior to EE, who would that have been? Mind that the impact player does not necessarily need to come from inside the organization. The latest i imagine was Basham. He turned into Ross, and Ross has been an impact player this year.

WHat about Dunn?

[Aronchis]

Farm System rankings aren't worth the trouble. Here is a question, which farm system at the time was better? The current June 2006 version or the June 2002 version for the Reds?

[dougdirt]

I think Baseball America has us slightly underrated at the start of the year. We were not top 20. But I think we fell somewhere between 20 and 25. The thing is, they rate systems based on lots of things, one of which is what is close to the majors, and well the Reds dont have much of that. Edwin was no longer a part of the minor league system, and that left our top 3 prospects being Bailey, Bruce and Wood. None of whom were even 20 at that point and all who were at the Single A level. After that, we had a 25 year old in AAA who doesnt do anything great, but does a lot of things good.

I think our system will move up the charts as our lower levels advance to the higher levels. With the talent in Dayton and Sarasota things will start to shape up.

[dougdirt]

Probably the June 2002 version.

[Benihana]

While I agree our system is pretty suspect, I don't mind having a top 5 of

1. Bailey RHP High-A
2. Wood LHP Low-A
3. Bruce OF Low-A
4. Cueto RHP Low-A
5. Votto 1B/OF AA

True other than Votto no one is even in AA, but it's not as bad as some people would have you believe.

[reds1869]

I've watched a lot of minor league ball, and to this layman's eyes BA is pretty dead on in their assessment.

[TRF]

WHat about Dunn?

No, Dunn was 2001. Kearns came the following year, but is only now making an impact. 2002 was the great pitcher massacre i believe. Acevedo, Davis and Reith.

My god I think it was WMP. He qualifies as he had 2 seasons in the Reds org. before being promoted to the 25 man roster.

Coffey and EE arrived about the same time. The Lizard doesn't count.

yup, I think before EE, WMP was the last impact player produced by the Reds farm.

Which BTW is why it's been so bad. So little talent at the major league level provided by the farm system in any way.

Jr - came via trade, Cameron was the key the rest filler.
Aurilia - FA
Milton - FA
Arroyo - Trade: WMP so I guess BA counts
Dunn - Farm Product
Kearns - Farm Product
EE - Farm Product
FeLo - Trade: Elmer Dessens
Brandon Phillips - Waiver claim
LaRue - Farm Product
Javy - FA?
Ross - Trade: Bobby Basham
Coffey - Farm Product
Harang - Trade: Guillen

Not a lot coming from the org. a lot of trades of major league talent and free agents.

[Aronchis]

Probably the June 2002 version.

Go with the June 2006 version. Dunn and Kearns were gone, it left alot of non-projectable talent like SteveS,Howington(who was already injured),Basham,Moseley and Scott Dunn. Then you had EE in Dayton and improving Josh Hall. That was about it.

Matter of fact, during the July 2002 trading period, Bowden IMO tried to get rid of most of the fluff but couldn't. Notice when trading discussions where going down, it was Josh Hall that was always mentioned. That is because he was about the only healthy guy(at the time) who other teams believed had a chance(with a low 90's fastball and a legit out pitch with that curve, why not?). Not a good system by any means.

The 2006 version is showing "some signs" of getting a modest pipeline started pitching wise, though everybody is still green(outside of Shafer). The hitters need work, and we drafted quite a few of them early on in this last draft. The 2002 version was already imploding on itself, when Hall fell to injury, that was its death rattle of probably its best pitcher. 2006 it is still breathing.....................

[dougdirt]

Ok, Aronchis is right, I was thinking Kearns was still around at that time...

June 2006 without question.

[reds44]

edy e was a top 50 prospect. Todd Coffey is a reliever, plenty of good relievers aren't considered "good prospects" because the have smaller ceilings or whatever. I'm not covninced that lizard will ever be better than a #5 starter. BA's knock on the reds is we have a top heavy farm system. Our depth is extremely poor on legit prospects

At 23 and pitching fairly well in the bigs, I don't think you can say Elizardo will never be anything more then a 5 starter.