Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: Question about drafts

  1. #1
    Haunted by walks
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    6,571

    Question about drafts

    Is there anywhere you can find what percentages are for No. 1 picks to make it to the majors? First-round picks? The other rounds?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    1,192

    Re: Question about drafts

    BP did a study by Rany Jazayerli and he concluded that the number 1 overall draft pick had a 40% value great than the 2nd pick in the draft and the value of each subsequent pick declined by about 4 or 5% for the 1st 40 picks. After that each pick's value only decreases by about a percent.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5152

    I don't remember if he mentioned in other articles in this series the success rate of the top overall pick.

  4. #3
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Phoenix
    Posts
    6,490

    Re: Question about drafts

    I thought I remember Rob Neyer being on ESPN last year during Draft Day, and him saying the difference between the first pick in the 2nd round and the last pick in the 3rd round, as far as success stats go, showed zero difference over time. Don't know why I've kept that little fact nugget buried in my brain but I have.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    1,192

    Re: Question about drafts

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19
    I thought I remember Rob Neyer being on ESPN last year during Draft Day, and him saying the difference between the first pick in the 2nd round and the last pick in the 3rd round, as far as success stats go, showed zero difference over time. Don't know why I've kept that little fact nugget buried in my brain but I have.
    It might be just a difference of what they used to come up with what is a valuable major league player. I don't know. I think Rany used WARP, but I'm not positive. There was also something done by Callis last year wasn't there? I can't remember what exactly he concluded other than HS is not much different than college.

  6. #5
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    10,772

    Re: Question about drafts

    Jim,

    I did a lot of research on this about 5 years ago on the drafts from '90-'99. You have to be careful because the data is changing very quickly over time. For example, some of the data from below may not apply anymore, if teams are better about scouting high schoolers in the 21st century (which I believe they are)

    I haven't read through all of Rany Z's stuff, but he's a sharp guy.

    BCubb:
    I didn't really concentrate so much on #1 pick v. #2 pick, but here's some general data for the first rounds for '90-'96:

    - Here are the "bust" percentages. A bust might have made it to the majors, but made minimal positive contribution to their clubs before being released or hitting free agency
    High School pitchers - 67.5%
    College pitchers - 43.86%
    College hitters - 40.48%
    HS hitters - 40%

    -Clubs spent about $3.25 million in bonus money on successful high school pitchers, and $39.6 million on less-than-successful high school pitchers (by less than successful, they may have made the majors, but made minimal positive contribution to their clubs before being released or hitting free agency)

    - I took each players’ total best 3 seasons of WARP (wins above replacement) for all draftees in the first rounds:
    -High school pitchers 2.51 added wins over 3 year period, on average
    -College pitchers 4.7 added wins over 3 year period on average
    -College hitters 9.44 added wins over 3 year period on average
    -HS hitters 8.78 added wins over 3 year period on average
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  7. #6
    Haunted by walks
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    6,571

    Re: Question about drafts

    Thanks for the info. Are these numbers good enough to settle for, in terms of efficiency at finding major leaguers? I know "Moneyball" tried to deal with how to improve the performance of drafters. What organization has had the best success?


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25