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Thread: My prediction for quickest to the majors

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    My prediction for quickest to the majors

    after Drew Stubbs is Logan Parker, 12th round pick out of Cincinnati. Big first baseman who hit .344/.465/.638 this year with 18 2B and 11 HR in 221 atbats. 54 walks to 31 K's. Looks like a poor man's Kevin Youkilis.

    I picked Stubbs as first to the majors mainly because of his defense.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Could Stubbs become a similar player to Torii Hunter? Hunter plays amazing D, but really doesn't have that good of offense.
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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    I picked Stubbs as first to the majors mainly because of his defense.
    Mmmmmm Mike Frank.

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    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Or Pat Watkins.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quickest to the majors for me would be Watson the reliever they took in the second round. Looks like he has four good pitches but needs a little work on some mechanical issues. College relievers are always up quicker to the majors than position players lately.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Does anyone know a time frame of when Stubbs could be atleast close to the majors? Also if he signs soon where do you all see him starting the season at?

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaknb8k
    Does anyone know a time frame of when Stubbs could be atleast close to the majors? Also if he signs soon where do you all see him starting the season at?
    I think it depends on the bat. But if a guy who hits .330 in AAA can't be in the majors right now and since Dunn, Kearns and Griffey are riveted in the OF for the foreseeable future, I'd say Stubbs has a few years.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    I think it depends on the bat. But if a guy who hits .330 in AAA can't be in the majors right now and since Dunn, Kearns and Griffey are riveted in the OF for the foreseeable future, I'd say Stubbs has a few years.
    One of them will be traded, or Dunn will move to 1st this offseason. When Stubbs is ready, the same thing will happen. You don't let your #8 pick sit in the minors when he is ready.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Dont know if this fits into this thread but what are the best and worst case senarios for Stubbs? I know there is a chance he will be a bust; as everyone has a chance for that. So i kinda want to throw that out cause its still hard for me to believe that he will be a complete bust. He might be a first round bust but i dont think he will be a complete bust but as always that option is still there.

    From what im reading it sounds like Stubbs could be a Torii Hunter/Grady Sizemore (which i will take anyday as a 1st round draft pick) or a So Taguchi/Lew Ford type bench player(which would qualify under my 1st round bust catagory). Can anyone add to this or make a better scanario?

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Low end, he is a 4th outfielder who cant hit much, but can play very good defense and steal bases for you. High end, you get Mike Cameron.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaknb8k
    Dont know if this fits into this thread but what are the best and worst case senarios for Stubbs? I know there is a chance he will be a bust; as everyone has a chance for that. So i kinda want to throw that out cause its still hard for me to believe that he will be a complete bust. He might be a first round bust but i dont think he will be a complete bust but as always that option is still there.

    From what im reading it sounds like Stubbs could be a Torii Hunter/Grady Sizemore (which i will take anyday as a 1st round draft pick) or a So Taguchi/Lew Ford type bench player(which would qualify under my 1st round bust catagory). Can anyone add to this or make a better scanario?
    If what I read is correct, he is twice the fielder Taguchi and Ford are. If Stubbs can hit .265 there will be a starting spot for him in the majors because of his glove and speed.

    With his "raw" power, I may even go higher then Torii Hunter as his ceiling. It could be Andruw Jones with alittle less power, and more speed.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Low end, he is a 4th outfielder who cant hit much, but can play very good defense and steal bases for you. High end, you get Mike Cameron.
    High end is better the Mike Cameron. Low end I agree with.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Its just hard for me to believe that a player as highly touted (and even if you dont like the pick you very rarely if any saw him ranked below 10th best player) as Stubbs have his best comparisons be to Mike Cameron. Im not a Baseball America worshiper nor do i dismiss BA, but i do understand that they put a lot of thought and hours of planning into ranking players for the draft. And if you read what BA says its hard for be to even see a Mike Cameron comparison.

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Low end, he is a 4th outfielder who cant hit much, but can play very good defense and steal bases for you. High end, you get Mike Cameron.
    Could be Cameron. Could also be Reggie Sanders. Or he could be what I think Curtis Granderson is going to be. Could be. Well, that's if Stubbs can translate wood bats into performance. If he can't, I smell Travis Lee's offensive game.

    What I like about Stubbs:

    1. Size. He's big enough. That's for sure. Could bode well for power development down the road.

    2. Speed. He's fast enough.

    3. Isolated Discipline. Stubbs' IsoD has improved each season so far to the point where he's producing a IsoD at or near 100 points.

    4. Isolated Power. When you can produce an IsoP near .250 while striking out at a rate of about once every 4.0 AB, that confirms that #1 may be true. And Stubbs is fast, but he doesn't have a triples-heavy SLG.

    What I don't like about Stubbs:

    1. Size. He's big enough, but at 6'4" tall how long is he going to be able to patrol CF? And if he does have a hole in his swing that can be exposed by professional coaches and pitchers, can a guy that big get his swing compact enough to adjust?

    2. Speed. At that size, how long will he be able to effectively use it if he fills out more? What we might be seeing is a guy drafted as a CF who can't play the position in a couple years. That significantly reduces his value because his offense- while good at the college level in a tough conference, isn't mind-blowingly good. It's very possible that Stubbs' speed- one of the primary reasons he was rated highly- won't have the impact folks are projecting once he reaches his prime age years.

    3. Isolated Discipline and Isolated Power. What? He's got a solid IsoD and IsoP. Yeah, he does. But the IsoP is more iffy because there's still debate on whether or not Stubbs can use a wood bat as a real weapon. Stubbs' plate discipline skill set could translate into at least MLB-average IsoD over the long haul. Problem is that his IsoD, while good, doesn't really resemble the extreme IsoD I'd like to see from a guy who has a reported hole in his swing and who hasn't yet manifested extreme power for his size. A guy like Nick Swisher (extreme IsoD in college) posted power numbers of 1 HR per 18.4 AB his last season in college. Stubbs? 1 HR per @ 20 AB. That's not a huge difference but it's significant because I don't see Stubbs lasting in Center Field. Furthermore, I see both striking out at about the same rate. The only reason I even care to mention that is that I see Swisher in an environment that teaches plate discipline and I see Stubbs in an altogether different developmental environment. If Stubbs gets direction that making contact is the answer to advancement, it's not going to go well for him because his IsoP is going to be negatively affected.

    4. Batting Average. Stubbs is not going to hit .342 or anywhere therabouts in the Show.

    5. Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer were still on the board. And no, I don't worry about Lincecum's height nor do I worry about Scherzer's biceps tendinitis. If you're an advanced pitcher and can do good works for a club that needs advanced pitchers, you're my guy.

    And doug, I agree with you on the rest of the draft. I have no problem with "big guy-throws hard" after round one, but it appears that the Reds are throwing "big guy-throws hard" at a wall hoping one of them can stick. And the positional prospects they overdrafted (Chris Valaika, Justin Turner) earlier on day one demonstrate awful plate discipline skill sets coupled with Batting Averages and SLG numbers that simply don't translate from aluminum to wood.

    In short, I'm entirely glad I had to work through the draft today as we saw a number of awful picks that simply shouldn't have been taken ahead of players with higher upsides.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Re: My prediction for quickest to the majors

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
    after Drew Stubbs is Logan Parker, 12th round pick out of Cincinnati. Big first baseman who hit .344/.465/.638 this year with 18 2B and 11 HR in 221 atbats. 54 walks to 31 K's. Looks like a poor man's Kevin Youkilis.

    I picked Stubbs as first to the majors mainly because of his defense.

    I play cards with his best friend here in town. No kidding, on Friday, he told me that his kid, Logan Parker, was going to be drafted by Cincy today. I pretty much gaffed him off yadda-yadda. Who knew, eh?

    From what he said, this guy is a BEAST of a man and just murders the ball. We can hope.


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